Postponing the interview - Number of visas issued

[Britsimon]

Hey guys, Do you think case number EU37*** is a safe number, I mean would i get an interview before all the vissas are issued and approximately around which month? Thanks in advance everyone and good luck on your journey.

I have previously estimated EU is safe up to 40k. I hope that is still true - but my confidence has been shaken somewhat by seeing how many visas they have already approved up to the end of January. Keep your fingers crossed and watch the visa bulletins and the analysis in this forum....

 

[SusieQQQ]

You know what - having just spent the last hour or so looking at the CEAC data or visas issued so far, I personally wouldn't delay the visa interview. At all.

Haven't had time to update on all the threads. What is it you found in the data?

 

[Britsimon]

Haven't had time to update on all the threads. What is it you found in the data?

The issue is that we have the CEAC data that shows results up to the end of January so we can see the number of people that were eligible to attend the interviews (i.e. under the cutoff for each region). Adding up those people shows us 24200 people were in CEAC under the Jan cutoffs. From those people 11294 visas were issued (plus many more were on AP or at ready status - so might interview later). Calculating that out at this rate of issue (assuming no AOS and that none of the AP cases get visas) means that we need at least 70k visas to go up to the 140k selectees. To me it is clear confirmation that there is no chance that Sloner could possibly be right. and that even my estimations are going to be a stretch. EU for instance has had 8537 selectees and have got 4588 visas. Visas are being granted at a rate slightly faster than 2013 - indicating increased desire and no evidence of increased refusals (at least globally). And of course - AOS, late interviews and AP cases will all increase these numbers even within the 24200 (so the 11294 figure is bound to rise)

This method (Vladeks method, corrected for an inaccuracy) does not predict case numbers - just progress through the selectees. It confirms that we never needed 140k - in fact, we probably only need the normal 105/110k. I've always predicted that - but I think up until today I wanted to believe that Santa Claus might just be real. He isn't.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Thanks Simon - so pretty much what we thought, but now seeing confirmation in the numbers.