Okay, I've read the October bulletin like 10 times but nowhere do they seem to give out any kind of outlook for FY 2007. If I remember right in OCT 2006 bulletin they said they anticipate heavy demand and AC21 will be suspended and so there will be retrogression. I do not see that language in this bulletin. Do you ?
Outlook for FY2007
- Thread starter AGC4ME
- Start date
EB3 India and Saras
I think 2007 will be a great relief for EB3 India 2001 and 2002 Priority dates, as I have also read the Oct Visa Bulletin 10 times, and I have notice that EB3 world have been jumping around 1st April 2001, 15th, 22nd and finally 1st May in 4 months times frame.
I think the same situation will be for EB3 India, that in Nov 06 Bulletin, the EB3 India will still at Apr 22, and in Dec 06 Bulletin it will move to May 01, 2001.
As I have mentioned in the earlier post that as soon as 30 April 2001 passes by, there are no heavy load cases pending in the BEC for 245i, because 30 April was the last date for the submission.
I am very interesting reading the post of Saras, as Saras have very good knowledge in this regards, and I appreciate his/her reading.
I will still wait for Saras to say in this regards.
I think 2007 will be a great relief for EB3 India 2001 and 2002 Priority dates, as I have also read the Oct Visa Bulletin 10 times, and I have notice that EB3 world have been jumping around 1st April 2001, 15th, 22nd and finally 1st May in 4 months times frame.
I think the same situation will be for EB3 India, that in Nov 06 Bulletin, the EB3 India will still at Apr 22, and in Dec 06 Bulletin it will move to May 01, 2001.
As I have mentioned in the earlier post that as soon as 30 April 2001 passes by, there are no heavy load cases pending in the BEC for 245i, because 30 April was the last date for the submission.
I am very interesting reading the post of Saras, as Saras have very good knowledge in this regards, and I appreciate his/her reading.
I will still wait for Saras to say in this regards.
United nations fundamentlly disagrees with saras and mentiones there are indeed lot of 245i or other EB3 cases pending from and around 2001 April for India.
If this is true, it is really bad for India, once PD moves past 2001, USCIS will be flooded with 485s and EB3 will be Unavailable for rest of the year
so either way I really don't see any hope, EB3 India guys from 2001 may get lucky this year and if you are from 2002 good luck next year
this is my realstic estimate considering there no new laws getting passed which might change things
If this is true, it is really bad for India, once PD moves past 2001, USCIS will be flooded with 485s and EB3 will be Unavailable for rest of the year
so either way I really don't see any hope, EB3 India guys from 2001 may get lucky this year and if you are from 2002 good luck next year
this is my realstic estimate considering there no new laws getting passed which might change things
Let me clarify ....
Mumbai123,
Thanks for having so much faith in me but honestly no one can say for sure what the future holds for India EB3. Going purely by the Oct bulletin it looks bleak. guldukan has mentioned in his post that I fundamentally disagree with UN about the true number of 245is from India. That is actually incorrect. I have no idea how many 245i India EB3s are out there and I can confidently say that UN does not either. There are probably thousands, I am not arguing that fact. My contention is that dates for India EB3 have been kept in check and will continue to be kept in check "IN ANTICIPATION" of thousands of PDs prior to April 30 2001. Why do I think that? Throughout last year the DOL kept stating that there are thousands of pending labors in the BECs. UN states that a majority of these are Indians and I cannot dispute that because I do not know. Again there may be thousands. Anyway say thousands of 245i India EB3s were still in the BECs all of last year and are only now getting approved. This is a fact because DOL has just recently started approving BEC cases and I will concede that most of the cases coming out right now are India EB3. It takes atleast 6 months after labor approvals to be able to file 485 (140 approval etc) so thousands of 245is could not have flooded the system in '06. It is well known that most non 245i India EB3s have already been approved. When I say most I mean 85% or more. So it can easily be concluded that in most of '06 DOS kept India EB3 dates backed up based on historically high demand and in anticiaption of BECs to get their act together and start approving the pending labors. This did not happen in '06 and is happening now. India EB3 dates were thrown back to '98 as a panic measure and they will be kept in check for a long time.
My whole point is that if India EB3 had any chance to move into late '01, it was in fiscal year '06 but the DOL was conservative. Now thousands will flood the system and we can pretty much forget about it.
Either way the picture does not look good. In the end who cares if my contention is right or if UN's dooms day scenario is accurate. What matters is that we are stuck and no one can truly give us any sort of reliable update on future movement. I believe UN may have become current in the last bulletin and thats great news for him.
For the rest of us, its best to not look for predicitions or get into arguments with other people about conflicting theories. No ones theory is going to change what is going to happen. Its a total waste of time.
Lets hope some relief comes our way through a law change or sheer luck ..
cheers,
saras
Mumbai123 said:
Mumbai123,
Thanks for having so much faith in me but honestly no one can say for sure what the future holds for India EB3. Going purely by the Oct bulletin it looks bleak. guldukan has mentioned in his post that I fundamentally disagree with UN about the true number of 245is from India. That is actually incorrect. I have no idea how many 245i India EB3s are out there and I can confidently say that UN does not either. There are probably thousands, I am not arguing that fact. My contention is that dates for India EB3 have been kept in check and will continue to be kept in check "IN ANTICIPATION" of thousands of PDs prior to April 30 2001. Why do I think that? Throughout last year the DOL kept stating that there are thousands of pending labors in the BECs. UN states that a majority of these are Indians and I cannot dispute that because I do not know. Again there may be thousands. Anyway say thousands of 245i India EB3s were still in the BECs all of last year and are only now getting approved. This is a fact because DOL has just recently started approving BEC cases and I will concede that most of the cases coming out right now are India EB3. It takes atleast 6 months after labor approvals to be able to file 485 (140 approval etc) so thousands of 245is could not have flooded the system in '06. It is well known that most non 245i India EB3s have already been approved. When I say most I mean 85% or more. So it can easily be concluded that in most of '06 DOS kept India EB3 dates backed up based on historically high demand and in anticiaption of BECs to get their act together and start approving the pending labors. This did not happen in '06 and is happening now. India EB3 dates were thrown back to '98 as a panic measure and they will be kept in check for a long time.
My whole point is that if India EB3 had any chance to move into late '01, it was in fiscal year '06 but the DOL was conservative. Now thousands will flood the system and we can pretty much forget about it.
Either way the picture does not look good. In the end who cares if my contention is right or if UN's dooms day scenario is accurate. What matters is that we are stuck and no one can truly give us any sort of reliable update on future movement. I believe UN may have become current in the last bulletin and thats great news for him.
For the rest of us, its best to not look for predicitions or get into arguments with other people about conflicting theories. No ones theory is going to change what is going to happen. Its a total waste of time.
Lets hope some relief comes our way through a law change or sheer luck ..
cheers,
saras
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Saras
Does it even make sense to write this elaborate write-up acting as if you have a lot of knowledge and then at the end make the statement that no one can accuately predict anything ?
You seem to have a lot of time on your hands writing all this crap and then saying all of the above may not be right. Are you on the bench ? I remember you saying that your wife has a great job? Are you living off her salary and how much does she make, if you don't mind ?
Thanks
Does it even make sense to write this elaborate write-up acting as if you have a lot of knowledge and then at the end make the statement that no one can accuately predict anything ?
You seem to have a lot of time on your hands writing all this crap and then saying all of the above may not be right. Are you on the bench ? I remember you saying that your wife has a great job? Are you living off her salary and how much does she make, if you don't mind ?
Thanks
masala dosa
Registered Users (C)
catdog said:
Catdog at his/her(gender unidentifiable) funny best.
LOL
I cannot help saying something when I look at these self-proclaimed experts in immigration like saras sayiung 'Be positive' , 'it will work out' and then putting a disclaimer at the end.
Saras may be a part of bodyshopper chain who wants you guys to hang around, in the hopes of GC nirvana. GC is not coming. People are angry enough at the politicians for other things. The politicians will not make them more angry by passing bills which brings in thousands more peope legally or handing tens of thousands more GCs. Read his disclaimer at the end so as to avoid any legal responsibilitis.
The writing is on the wall. Be prepared to wait for ever or leave.
Saras may be a part of bodyshopper chain who wants you guys to hang around, in the hopes of GC nirvana. GC is not coming. People are angry enough at the politicians for other things. The politicians will not make them more angry by passing bills which brings in thousands more peope legally or handing tens of thousands more GCs. Read his disclaimer at the end so as to avoid any legal responsibilitis.
The writing is on the wall. Be prepared to wait for ever or leave.
indian_gc_ocean
Registered Users (C)
unitednations said:
Well said UN. I started thinking that many of us visiting these forums just don't seem to understand the seriousness.
When India EB2 went unavailable, I understood that there is no spillover coming to India from ROW in any category and started looking for a stable job that has future growth immediately using AC21. Lucky to have found one. My point is not to brag about this but to say that we can take a decisive action once we know the reality.
Recently, one of my neighbor got his 2004 EB2 labor cleared;he was excited to know this and started talking about getting I-140 cleared and then getting his greencard in the next 6 months through CP in Chennai. I told him that with all this retrogression its not advisable to go for CP as getting EAD for his wife would also be difficult just in case. He fails to listen to me and insists on doing CP sitting in his 6th year.
Well, as Greg Chappel once said its not the techinique that lets indians down in matches, its usually the lack of mental toughness. Most corporate managers can manipulate our guys just like bunch of teenagers most of the times. I wonder whether we would ever stop dreaming and start having the toughness to understand the situation and act/react accordingly.
United Nations
Very good discussion. Many thanks for your postings and expert opinions.
I am am a lay man and do not understand much of law or USCIS/DOS ways of working. Opinions and discussion by experienced members like UnitedNations and Saras help me to get to know and understand lot of complexities. I value your opinions.
And not based on statistics, I can make a point on USCIS ways of functioning. As you mentioned that USCIS/DOS broke law some time back and may argue that many people are getting benefits. Still I am not sure if USCIS/DOS will follow / is following law. Ambiguousness in USCIS/DOS functionality and directives may fuel doubts/hopes. I believe that by breaking law, USCIS introduced sudden retrogressions if not uncertainity. At least some people are suffering due to its policis and functioning.
Can you please analyze once how USCIS's ways of functioning impacting the equality of process timings ?
Very good discussion. Many thanks for your postings and expert opinions.
I am am a lay man and do not understand much of law or USCIS/DOS ways of working. Opinions and discussion by experienced members like UnitedNations and Saras help me to get to know and understand lot of complexities. I value your opinions.
And not based on statistics, I can make a point on USCIS ways of functioning. As you mentioned that USCIS/DOS broke law some time back and may argue that many people are getting benefits. Still I am not sure if USCIS/DOS will follow / is following law. Ambiguousness in USCIS/DOS functionality and directives may fuel doubts/hopes. I believe that by breaking law, USCIS introduced sudden retrogressions if not uncertainity. At least some people are suffering due to its policis and functioning.
Can you please analyze once how USCIS's ways of functioning impacting the equality of process timings ?
unitednations said:
Current Backlog Count - should privide an idea on outlook
Currrently, we need an existing count of outstanding Labor applications in the Backlog center! If the numbers are huge, there is every likelihood of April 2001 applications remaining....
But, then most of april 2001 applications were from Mexico - no 1, no 2 may be China, no 3 may be India....
Mexico is still stuck at May 01...at the very border....indicating that the applications are still out there... but looking at China - it's been way past May 01 for the past 6 months....surelly indicating that April 01 applicants from China have been pretty much consumed...
I get the feeling that it's only a matter of time before Mexico moves past May 01 and India should too...I think definitely we are at the very border of April 01 applications getting consumed....(China is living proof!)
From my understanding, all my friends in backlog center got their approvals...so my personal take is that Backlog is very low....and April 01 applications have been consumed (Come on, it's been 5 years+ since!)
Currrently, we need an existing count of outstanding Labor applications in the Backlog center! If the numbers are huge, there is every likelihood of April 2001 applications remaining....
But, then most of april 2001 applications were from Mexico - no 1, no 2 may be China, no 3 may be India....
Mexico is still stuck at May 01...at the very border....indicating that the applications are still out there... but looking at China - it's been way past May 01 for the past 6 months....surelly indicating that April 01 applicants from China have been pretty much consumed...
I get the feeling that it's only a matter of time before Mexico moves past May 01 and India should too...I think definitely we are at the very border of April 01 applications getting consumed....(China is living proof!)
From my understanding, all my friends in backlog center got their approvals...so my personal take is that Backlog is very low....and April 01 applications have been consumed (Come on, it's been 5 years+ since!)
I think why people are not very unsure about things with USCIS is that although we know about the yearly quota and all that, but we dont know exactly how many applications still remain in the backlog centers. Also its not clear if the USCIS is acting in anticipation of labor approvals or is it acting based on the approved labors.
Right now that is a million dollar question.
Here are some of the other 100 thousand (if not million) dollar questions that everyone like to have answered if possible.
1. How many 245i applications still remain to be approved, and how many are from India. On second thought this is actually a Billion $ question. Everyone will be at peace with their lives and move forward if this number is clearer.
2. How many other regular EB3 India Labor applications are still pending at the backlog reductions centers waiting to be approved from year 2001 - 2002.
3. How many Labor Substitution cases are getting filed each month for Labors with PD before 2001. I know this is ery difficult to find. But in my opinion this is the biggest drag of everything on EB3 India. Not 245i not backlog centers, but this is the biggest problem. I know noone agrees to me.
Another milliion $ question that needs to be answered, which some people here have said will get answered in Jan 2007 is if the USCIS let the Visa numbers go unused in FY2006 for EB3 India.
neo
Right now that is a million dollar question.
Here are some of the other 100 thousand (if not million) dollar questions that everyone like to have answered if possible.
1. How many 245i applications still remain to be approved, and how many are from India. On second thought this is actually a Billion $ question. Everyone will be at peace with their lives and move forward if this number is clearer.
2. How many other regular EB3 India Labor applications are still pending at the backlog reductions centers waiting to be approved from year 2001 - 2002.
3. How many Labor Substitution cases are getting filed each month for Labors with PD before 2001. I know this is ery difficult to find. But in my opinion this is the biggest drag of everything on EB3 India. Not 245i not backlog centers, but this is the biggest problem. I know noone agrees to me.
Another milliion $ question that needs to be answered, which some people here have said will get answered in Jan 2007 is if the USCIS let the Visa numbers go unused in FY2006 for EB3 India.
neo
unitednations said:
UnitedStation, I really admire you knowledge this subjects, I have simple question, How do you base these information so precisely,
do you have access to any information inside USCIS/DOS etc
do you read a lot from different websites
is that from your experiance
cuz, I spent considerable amount of time these days to draw a logic on how USCIS/DOS functions
somehow it appears itz more to do with politics, economics than anything to do with numbers,
so I really appreciate if you could give me some tips on analysing these factors
guldukan........i dont think uscis has anything to do with politics or economics........but they definitely function according to the work load........which was a lot in the past few years....but they retrogressed dates and now control the flow....
simple logic: 2800 visa per year for EB3 india.......divide by 2.1 to take family factor....around 1300 per year.......around 111 per month.....
and we do not know many people who are not on this forum.....and definitely we do not know how many labors are getting approved and when.............what if USCIS has started approving 245i labors 6-8 months back........even if india EB3/245i are 5000 from that time........do the calculation how much time it will take at the rate of 111/month
simple logic: 2800 visa per year for EB3 india.......divide by 2.1 to take family factor....around 1300 per year.......around 111 per month.....
and we do not know many people who are not on this forum.....and definitely we do not know how many labors are getting approved and when.............what if USCIS has started approving 245i labors 6-8 months back........even if india EB3/245i are 5000 from that time........do the calculation how much time it will take at the rate of 111/month
correct me if i'm wrong.
First of all, thanks for putting this out here.
I hope I read this right in Oct Visa bulletin.
------------------------------
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES
First: Priority Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required for fourth and fifth preferences.
Second: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required by first preference.
-------------------------------
I think your post attends to EB3 numbers. But based on above excerpt from visa bulletin.
A. is it true that all unused EB1 numbers are available to EB2.
B. if above is true, how are the excess numbers distributed for EB2?
C. when are the numbers available for EB2? End of quarter? End of year?
unitednations said:
First of all, thanks for putting this out here.
I hope I read this right in Oct Visa bulletin.
------------------------------
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCES
First: Priority Workers: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required for fourth and fifth preferences.
Second: Members of the Professions Holding Advanced Degrees or Persons of Exceptional Ability: 28.6% of the worldwide employment-based preference level, plus any numbers not required by first preference.
-------------------------------
I think your post attends to EB3 numbers. But based on above excerpt from visa bulletin.
A. is it true that all unused EB1 numbers are available to EB2.
B. if above is true, how are the excess numbers distributed for EB2?
C. when are the numbers available for EB2? End of quarter? End of year?
GCInThisLife
Registered Users (C)
The fact that there is only simple math and only about 100 (with family factor) immigrant visas would be issued to over subscribed countries in each category certainly doesn't make things look appealing..
. But there is no point arguing or fighting. In general we tend to have a narrow focus i.e., consider only what is good for us and rest doesn't appear so important. For USCIS, all the countries should be 'same' and imposing of restrictions seems logical. Other than for the oversubscribed countries and esp india, things aren't as bad for ROW. I read some report from USCIS a while back that, when numbers were current (couple of years back), india alone consumed 47K of total visas. I am sure the same will be case even now if the numbers are current for india. Of course, things wouldn't be as bad if it wasn't for 245i cases - well, govt also sees to its advantage.
Coming to my case, I am sitting on approved EB2 140 with PD of Jan 2003. India EB2 came upto Jan 1, 2003 till July bulletin, then went unailable and now retrogressed when I just needed only few days of forward movement. All I am hoping is to be able to file for 485 and get EAD so that myself and my wife would be able to work in same place. It may still be possible, but EAD makes it easy with out the risk/worry of extensions/expiry/reapply etc. Well, I am a little disappointed, but I know all I can do is just wait for my turn. As you can see I am also trying to find the best case scenario for me..after all I am also a regular human..
. But there is no point arguing or fighting. In general we tend to have a narrow focus i.e., consider only what is good for us and rest doesn't appear so important. For USCIS, all the countries should be 'same' and imposing of restrictions seems logical. Other than for the oversubscribed countries and esp india, things aren't as bad for ROW. I read some report from USCIS a while back that, when numbers were current (couple of years back), india alone consumed 47K of total visas. I am sure the same will be case even now if the numbers are current for india. Of course, things wouldn't be as bad if it wasn't for 245i cases - well, govt also sees to its advantage. Coming to my case, I am sitting on approved EB2 140 with PD of Jan 2003. India EB2 came upto Jan 1, 2003 till July bulletin, then went unailable and now retrogressed when I just needed only few days of forward movement. All I am hoping is to be able to file for 485 and get EAD so that myself and my wife would be able to work in same place. It may still be possible, but EAD makes it easy with out the risk/worry of extensions/expiry/reapply etc. Well, I am a little disappointed, but I know all I can do is just wait for my turn. As you can see I am also trying to find the best case scenario for me..after all I am also a regular human.
.
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marlon2006
Registered Users (C)
UN, once priority dates become current...
Oh, Great UN, thanks for your posts.
Once priority dates and USCIS I-485 processing times for a certain individual become current, in your experience do you have any suggestion on course of action one can positively take ? Or should one just wait ?
In my case my priority date is on April 2002. NSC states I-485 cases from Nov 2005 are being processed.
Do you have any suggestion on when and if one should call lawmakers to follow up on I-485 cases once dates become current ?
Oh, Great UN, thanks for your posts.
Once priority dates and USCIS I-485 processing times for a certain individual become current, in your experience do you have any suggestion on course of action one can positively take ? Or should one just wait ?
In my case my priority date is on April 2002. NSC states I-485 cases from Nov 2005 are being processed.
Do you have any suggestion on when and if one should call lawmakers to follow up on I-485 cases once dates become current ?
unitednations said:
30 days ..
marlon,
There is no set procedure that one can follow once PDs become current. USCIS has become very efficient in processing 485s and I think your approval will take place within 30 days of the dates becoming current. Once your PD becomes current go ahead and get in touch with the Service Center via phone and see what they tell you. If you do not get a positive response then write a letter to your local congressman or senator eplaining the situation. Most congressman have an immigration liasion in their office and they should be able to get an update for you. I would hold the trigger on the congressional inquiry though. Wait atleast a month after your PD becomes current before undertaking these steps. That is my personal opinion.
Good luck and congrats on becoming current.
regards,
saras
marlon2006 said:
marlon,
There is no set procedure that one can follow once PDs become current. USCIS has become very efficient in processing 485s and I think your approval will take place within 30 days of the dates becoming current. Once your PD becomes current go ahead and get in touch with the Service Center via phone and see what they tell you. If you do not get a positive response then write a letter to your local congressman or senator eplaining the situation. Most congressman have an immigration liasion in their office and they should be able to get an update for you. I would hold the trigger on the congressional inquiry though. Wait atleast a month after your PD becomes current before undertaking these steps. That is my personal opinion.
Good luck and congrats on becoming current.
regards,
saras
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marlon2006
Registered Users (C)
Thanks, UN. Correct, USCIS online checking notes tells me they have received my I-485 RFE response.
I am glad to hear that you are aware of I-485 recent approvals. Perhaps you have your own sources that demonstrates that.
It seems that by judging from people who post on this forum, we haven't heard many I-485 approvals reports. At least that's my perception.
I am glad to hear that you are aware of I-485 recent approvals. Perhaps you have your own sources that demonstrates that.
It seems that by judging from people who post on this forum, we haven't heard many I-485 approvals reports. At least that's my perception.
unitednations said: