Order Pattern at TSC

V

vili

Registered Users (C)
I have the feeling that the processing at TSC is in a "macro chronological" order. That is to say, the 01 files have more chance to be approved earlier than 02

The odd for a 02 case to be approved is almost half of a 01 case. I think the Poisson distribution of the queuing problem is valid.
( The decay rate double with double time).

If you want to monitor the "micro order", I think most of approved 02 cases have the approval date in June-August, 2002.
 
which is ok is not it

people who are in 2001 should be approved first. i am 2002 but sicnerly wish they would follow order instead crazy random processing followed till date
 
wish...

Yep, a proper order in processing would be a good news. But for the larger betterment, I personally feel that FP cases be adjudicated first, so that an "order" could be restored. Anytime TSC, is forced to "repeat" jobs, they eat up the overall "productive" time that can be used for adjudicating "more" applications, otherwise.
 
Poongunranar, some or lot of 02 & 03 cases rec'd FP notices in a short time after filling of their 485 cases.
So I don't think the adjustment should be based on the order of FP.
I mean it would not be fair if people who filed 485 in 03 got their FP notices immediately get adjusted before people from 01 & 02 who are still waiting for FP.
Though I believe most from 01 have got their FP notices by now but I won't be surprised if there is still couple of unfortunate guys.

Villi, I have found some of 02 cases approved even in Sept 02.
After that i believe things just came to standstill at TSC ( Oct 02 - mar 03)
 
goastros

i agree with you. Many people got their fps due to repeated calling and lucky officers etc. I still feel PD and 485 dates should be the consideration. a guy who is in the queue from 2000 should be out first rather than someone who got his fp recently
 
March 02 even in approved June 02

I found a lot (most) of approved cases for 02135 ( March 28) in June, July and August.

After that there are few in October, Sept. Only two cases approved in 03. Also, the approved cases are very closed to each other ( found some island of approved cases).

So I guess that when they took the cases they took in bundle. Somehow, one bundle of 02135 was taken very early in June 02.

In May there was a wave of FP's for 02135 ( I heard also for other dates).

I am not talking about the fairness. Absolute fairness is impossible as the processing time depends on cases. I can imagine a model with few queues and more small queues in serial and processors ( as INS officer). The earlier file can enter the entering queues first but like on the high way, you can be in a bad lanes.

So, I think the randomness we are observing is not intentional. This randomness is natural. If we simulate this by a single entering queus and a lot of small queues with a lot of processors with different processing time, we will see the same distribution of approval dates.

Of couse, there are also events, which can affect the outcome significantly and by observation we can try to make some hypothesis. For instance, some thing could happen for the 01 files in the first queues and 02 files which came after could be processed significantly earlier like in June-August 02.
 
FPs for 2002 cases

I am also seeing a few of my friends (latter half of 2002 cases) getting FP notices. If we presume that BCIS has started to process things in order, with 2001 filers first, then I am totally foxed as to why 2002 filers would get their FP notices in mail. Anyway, just a FYI.
 
Statistics of SRC02135 and few ideas

It took me few days to run the Excel Macro for I-485 filed on March 02. Luckily, the numbers are only up to 54957.
I got the following result:

Approved/Completed Count 55 (19%)
FP sent Count 8 (3%)
Misc Count 13 (5%)
Received Count 122 (41%)
Resumed/FP recvd Count 68 (24%)
RFE recvd Count 4 (1%)
RFE sent Count 2 (1%)
Transferred Count 16 (6%)
Grand Count 288

I analyzed the time distribution of Approved and FP cases with the hope that these reflect the frequency of touching.

Approved Stats:

3/03 : 1 11/02 : 3 10/02: 15 9/02: 1
8/02 : 14 7/02 : 17 6/02 : 4

FP stats

Sent:
6/03 : 3 5/03: 2 4/03: 2 5/02: 1
Resumed:
06/03: 24 05/03: 13 04/03: 19 03/03: 1
11/02: 1 10/02: 1 6/02: 4 5/02: 5

From these numbers we can draw some conclusions and speculations:

1. As the earliest approved cases were in June 02, we can assume that in 02 the cases can be processed in 1-2 months after FP's. It would be interesting to see what is what is the time amount in 03.
2. The approved cases came in wave in the period 6-10/02. This means that the FP's were done in wave in May-July 02.
3. Only one case has been approved in 03. And not too many remaining FP's in the 07/02-03.
4. That can be related with the fact that FP's are not sent in some relatively long period of time before 03/03. We can speculate from the stats that 07/02-03/03, FPs are not generated so much.
5. Obviously, there are some correlations between FP's and approval.
6. Recently, there is another wave of FP's. By extrapolation, we can look toward to new wave of approvals.
7.The question is what is the 03's average time between FP's and approval. We can have some better ideas, if we study more statistics from other dates in 02 and 03.
 
good job

one of the best analysis. is there anyway you can do one for may 02?

or let me know how you did this analysis? did you cover the whole month and kept on changing the days?
 
heres for May 17th 02

I can post the stats for my RD date, if it helps.

Approved/Completed Count 24 (8%)
FP sent Count 34 (12%)
Misc Count 8 (3%)
Received Count 204 (70%)
Resumed/FP recvd Count 11 (4%)
RFE recvd Count 2 (1%)
Transferred Count 5 (2%)
Grand Count 288

Approved Stats:
5/03 : 1 4/03 : 1
12/02 : 1 11/02 : 1 10/02: 9 9/02: 10
8/02 : 1

FP stats

Sent:
6/03 : 34
Resumed:
06/03: 3 12/02: 3
11/02: 2 8/02: 1 7/02: 2
 
for Villi

When was the last date you have seen changes in your excel file.
I have not seen any change in my macro since 6/20/03.
Also I have attached my excel sheet which also contains 02-096 if you need it.
 
goastros and villi

we can see there is more fps for march 02 than say may date. and many of these fps are in june . so it is kind of good. hope we see more in approval figures
 
last update 6/20/03

goastros : yup! last update seems to be 6/20/03.

also, i've been locked out for more than 36hrs now for running "too many inquiries", any body else been locked out for this long?

I'm keeping track of SRC 01 254 5xxxx ( full range, ~300 I485s out of 5500 receipts for Aug 27th 2001)

Let me know if any of yuns are doing a "complete day", so we can keep track and avoid duplicating effort.
 
Analysis

For Goastro:

I also see 06/03 as the last changing date. However, this is the first time I have a complete day data.

For Tombaan:

I think because the uncertainty is big, it would not make sense
to follow such a fine resolution as day by day. I think the month data would be enough and contains more information.

Actually, goastro's data has confirmed my assumptions. The number of approvals is essentially lower as May 17 filers missed the big part of the assumed FP's wave. A small wave of approvals can still be seen in September and October ( likely for those who could catch the tail of the FP's wave).

I have to leave now and will look at Tombaan's data tonight and see whether my assumptions must be corrected or not.

If we can collect at least results for each months of 02 and 03, we can be in better position to figure out the order pattern of TSC. I would like very much to have an average amount of time between FP's and the approvals.

Up to now I don't have surprise in my perception about processing order at TSC. I don't think they mix up the time order to much.
 
villi

i ran for may 24 th for the range 54000-55000 and here is the result

recd 46
resumed 3
approved 8
trsfrd 2
rfe 4
63

till what range of numbers do we run for a single day?
 
days range?

tombaan:

I would start from SRC yy ddd 50000 thru SRC yy ddd 59999
but ofcourse i would get invalid receipt #s around/above 6000 range,
so each day there are approx. 6000 cases that are filed (from empirical data i've seen).
And somedays have more I485s than others.

I would suggest picking an SRC # of somebody here and running the whole range. It would take patience and about 7-10 days.
After knowing all the I485s in a particular range (usually 100 - 400 cases), update them once a week. I think the interesting days would be between april 2001 thru oct. 2001.

I am being careful with not getting locked out, i.e i'm running only ~700 cases in 48hrs time, although BCIS doesn't have a explicit restriction on checking other ppl.s SRC#, I don't want my IP address showing up in the blocked list too frequently.

(currently working on aug152001)
 
I am back

Hi everybody,

I am back from a trip. I am looking to continuing the work on this idea soon. I hope you guys will support me with the result of yourself.

Currently, we have four complete results for August 20, 01
Feb 1, 02 March 28, 02; May 17,02. If we can collect more excel files, we can discuss more about the patterns.

At the moment the Feb 1, 02 file has supported all the ideas I presented last week.
 
Back to the analysis from the daydream

Perhaps, the dream that everybody will be approved has faded away. Let us concentrate on the hard work to understand TSC.


I Modified scaned src02-135 today and see one update as compared to the last report ( when I see the received dates changed from March 28, 02 to July 3, 03).

Approved/Completed Count 55 (19%)
FP sent Count 7 (2%)
Misc Count 14 (5%)
Received Count 123 (43%)
Resumed/FP recvd Count 67 (23%)
RFE recvd Count 4 (1%)
RFE sent Count 2 (1%)
Transferred Count 16 (6%)
Grand Count 288

Approved Stats:

3/03 : 1 11/02 : 3 10/02: 15 9/02: 1
8/02 : 14 7/02 : 17 6/02 : 4

FP stats

Sent:
6/03 : 2(3) 5/03: 2 4/03: 2 5/02: 1
Resumed:
06/03: 24 05/03: 12 (13) 04/03: 19 03/03: 1
11/02: 1 10/02: 1 6/02: 4 5/02: 5


The change is from Sent to Resumed.

Conclusions:

1. At the moment I don't have explanation for the change of the received date to July 3, 2003.
2. The status change from Sent to Resumed shed some light on the way TSC processes the applications: the files with updated status are really touched ( I can put a stronger assumption that they are assigned to an officer already). A lot of file are not updated with FP sent and even after it is sent it is not updated with received/resumed. If the assignment is random after FP is received, I cannot explain why the file has the status of FP sent
changed to FP resumed so quickly. I assume the following scenario:

+ FP are generated by an independent processor.
+ Those files which have status "FP sent" have come to a hand, who updated it online and wait for the FP and updated it immediately ( in BCIS sense) when FP is received.
+ The simplest assumption is that that hand is God's ( BCIS officer who processes the case). Let us watch to see whether my assumption is true or not.

3. Some activities are going on. It is not bad to see that in ten days, 4 files of SRC02-135 are touched ( > 1%).

Suggestion:

As I have few complete data files I will run Modified Scaned on them. Perhaps, if we can collect more data then we can see and discuss more about the result. Can somebody provide me for more days ( I need the whole day data) especially for SRC01XXX
 
Help

I tried to run SRC01-248 posted by someone else. However, I gor blocked because of a lot of invalid numbers. Now I see that in the file all case numbers are **** :))

Can you guys give me a hand to run your macrofile and post the result ( also percentage and time distribution as I did)?
 
Villi,
I ran the macro for SRC01-248 from 50000 to 50500.
I have found 80+, which are in the excel sheet 01248a.
We will have to scan for more cases ( 50501 onwards).
I have included the excel sheet alongwith other SRC dates.
 
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