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Official August VB is published online - last month of DV2014

might be silly questions, but i have been curious for a while. when you guys refer to KFC, you actually mean KCC? and what is it with the fat lady singing?
 
CWH said:
might be silly questions, but i have been curious for a while. when you guys refer to KFC, you actually mean KCC? and what is it with the fat lady singing?
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Ahh the inside joke. Sloner was (genuinely, I believe) confused about KCC versus KFC early on. It became somewhat of an in joke - and seemed to fit the situation well...

As for the fat lady singing, that is a real thing - coming from the world of opera.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It_ain't_over_till_the_fat_lady_sings
 
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rafikbo76 said:
I want believe, but calling people in the last month, sending their files to their embassies and scheduling interview is just Mission Impossible.
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Tom C completed 4 Mission Impossible and going to the 5th. We all too!! So let's pray, believe and demonstrate our free will power to make it happen together!! :)
 
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What is awfull is That they make the same mistake for DVD 2015:mad:
They gave about 47k cn for Europe and the cutt off this year is 40k. So it will be the same thing for high cn next year!
 
Chicago2014 said:
What is awfull is That they make the same mistake for DVD 2015:mad:
They gave about 47k cn for Europe and the cutt off this year is 40k. So it will be the same thing for high cn next year!
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Yes. This will continue on until you dismiss it all guiding. It is not able to calculate 2 * 2:confused:
 
Hi all! I am predicting that for dv 2015 KCC will cut off at about 36,000. What do you guys think? Dv 2014 selected 140,000 and the cut off is 40,150. Dv 2013 selected 105,000 and the cut off was 33,000 (considering it became current early and I guess the highest CN was about 35,000). So, I am assuming with 125,000 ppl selected Dv 2015 will cut off at 36xxx. This is, of course, just an assumption/prediction of mine. Btw, my CN is 38xxx for DV 2015. I think it will be difficult for CNs above 36xxx next year. Any thoughts? (Again these are all my thoughts/assumptions and are open to critism)
 
murat131 said:
Hi all! I am predicting that for dv 2015 KCC will cut off at about 36,000. What do you guys think? Dv 2014 selected 140,000 and the cut off is 40,150. Dv 2013 selected 105,000 and the cut off was 33,000 (considering it became current early and I guess the highest CN was about 35,000). So, I am assuming with 125,000 ppl selected Dv 2015 will cut off at 36xxx. This is, of course, just an assumption/prediction of mine. Btw, my CN is 38xxx for DV 2015. I think it will be difficult for CNs above 36xxx next year. Any thoughts? (Again these are all my thoughts/assumptions and are open to critism)
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I think your logic is flawed because you are basing it on some imputed cutoff for DV13. DV13 was current. I can't see any reason why the cutoff should be lower than this year unless there is a much higher response rate for some reason. The lower number of selectees just reflects (depending on your view) a realization that too many were selected for DV14, or Nigeria falling out. Either way - it makes no difference IMO.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I think your logic is flawed because you are basing it on some imputed cutoff for DV13. DV13 was current. I can't see any reason why the cutoff should be lower than this year unless there is a much higher response rate for some reason. The lower number of selectees just reflects (depending on your view) a realization that too many were selected for DV14, or Nigeria falling out. Either way - it makes no difference IMO.
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There isn't really any logic in my calculations. I just think that fewer people selected yield fewer cut-offs. I also wanna believe your opinions. But, based on this year's results, I don't think high CNs (at least above 40,000) should turn current.
 
murat131 said:
There isn't really any logic in my calculations. I just think that fewer people selected yield fewer cut-offs. I also wanna believe your opinions. But, based on this year's results, I don't think high CNs (at least above 40,000) should turn current.
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I can agree with that. What I don't understand is why you are forecasting the cutoff to be 10% below this year.
 
murat131 said:
There isn't really any logic in my calculations. I just think that fewer people selected yield fewer cut-offs. I also wanna believe your opinions. But, based on this year's results, I don't think high CNs (at least above 40,000) should turn current.
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Your basic logic (less selectees means lower cutoff) is completely wrong. You need to gain an understanding of how it works, what the cutoff is for, and about 1000 other things you don't yet understand. Don't worry, I'm sure you will get it, because you are thinking, but in the meantime please know your guess/understanding is 100% incorrect.
 
Britsimon said:
Your basic logic (less selectees means lower cutoff) is completely wrong. You need to gain an understanding of how it works, what the cutoff is for, and about 1000 other things you don't yet understand. Don't worry, I'm sure you will get it, because you are thinking, but in the meantime please know your guess/understanding is 100% incorrect.
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I like the way you explain the cut offs. I hope my understanding is 100% incorrect. As you pointed out, it just simple calculation excluding many variations and conditions. I just want to brainstorm with ppl like you who know better and have more experience. My intention is not to mislead anyone but gain a better understanding of how it works.
 
murat131 said:
I like the way you explain the cut offs. I hope my understanding is 100% incorrect. As you pointed out, it just simple calculation excluding many variations and conditions. I just want to brainstorm with ppl like you who know better and have more experience. My intention is not to mislead anyone but gain a better understanding of how it works.
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murat131, Well said! If you are truly able to gain a full "understanding of how it works", you will be better than 99% of the people around here, me certainly absolutely included... Reality is you will go from surprise to surprise, some positive, many others not ;)
Best of luck!
 
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