October 2003 ImmigrationWatch.com data

ETA-GC

Registered Users (C)
Anyone know how reliable the data at www.immigrationwatch.com is?

I wanted to track the VSC's progress with 10/03 I-140 cases so I looked at the % approved for each of the days in October using immigrationwatch.

The results make sense (decreasing consistently from 30.71% for October 01 to 24.28% for October 31 -- see attached spreadsheet) but I'm a little skeptical. While I expected to see an overall trend of decreasing %, I would have expected a bit more "randomness" in the numbers because the # cases received and the # cases approved should vary quite a bit for any given day.

Anyone know how and how often immigrationwatch updates it's numbers? (I tried emailing them with no result so far). Maybe the numbers I'm seeing have been "extrapolated" somehow based on a small / out of date sample?

Ideally, if the data is fairly reliable and up to date wrt the actual USCIS data, I could update my results on, say, a weekly basis, and we should hopefully start to see the %'s climb as the VSC gets to more 10/03 cases.

[ Alternatively, if, as has been suggested elsewhere, the VSC is switching to the new guidelines as of 10/01/03 cases, then these numbers won't climb as quickly since concurrently filed I-140 / I-485 cases won't be approved until the I-485 is ready. It seems reasonable to assume that this would mean a delay of at least several months given that fingerprinting etc. hasn't even been ordered for these cases yet... ]

ETA
 
Last edited by a moderator:
ETA,
The % numbers are to regular to be anything but an interpolation.
I have been following their numbers for a while. The updates are approximately every two weeks.
I think they use some kind of sampling because the stats show about 3000 I-140s applied for per month, while their approvals every two weeks list only about 200 cases. At that rate, it would take over half a year to process one month's cases and we know that's not true.
I'm hoping to see some October approvals this week - that's the only way we'll know if BCIS is continuing to approve I-140s. Anyone who's friend/cousin/lover/grandmother got their october I-140, please post...
 
vee111 said:
ETA,
The % numbers are to regular to be anything but an interpolation.
I have been following their numbers for a while. The updates are approximately every two weeks.
I think they use some kind of sampling because the stats show about 3000 I-140s applied for per month, while their approvals every two weeks list only about 200 cases. At that rate, it would take over half a year to process one month's cases and we know that's not true.
I'm hoping to see some October approvals this week - that's the only way we'll know if BCIS is continuing to approve I-140s. Anyone who's friend/cousin/lover/grandmother got their october I-140, please post...

Thanks for your comments vee111. I agree and if we're right, this makes immigrationwatch kinda useless for my purposes...

Let's see some October approvals (I guess some people prefer to wait, possibly for a long time, and get their 485 at the same time, but not me -- I want to get under (over?) the AC21 safety net asap).

ETA
 
If possible post the source

Hi ETA_GC

Where did u read that VSC is switching to the new guidelines as of 10/01/03 cases and that the rate of approvals for I-140s would be less.

If possible can u post the link.

Thanks,
U_take _it_easy
 
U_take_it_easy said:
Hi ETA_GC

Where did u read that VSC is switching to the new guidelines as of 10/01/03 cases and that the rate of approvals for I-140s would be less.

If possible can u post the link.

Thanks,
U_take _it_easy

This was only speculation on someone's part. There's no indication so far that this is what they are doing (although if they are, we'd like to know :)).

ETA
 
Top