NPR's analysis of the Reconciliation Process

The bill as it is has zero chance of becoming law. The House will not accept all of its conditions.

However, I think there is a 50/50 chance that something will pass into law, but only after several changes.
 
Majority of the majority rule

If a Democratic controlled house (usually pro labour) in the early 1990s can be made to accept NAFTA in clinton days, then a majority Republican house can be made to accept an immigration bill.
The question is whether the majority of the majority(republican) house rule will apply. Democrats with moderate Republicans can actually pass this in the house, the question is whether the conservative republicans will block this from ever being voted upon in the house.
The ball is in Pres. Bush court in my view.
In the end some compromise is possible and since the president seems to want it to happen, I believe odds are somewhat better than 50/50.
Alternatively they may wait until after the elections to push something through.
Interesting times in the immigration lawmaking.
 
higher chance

being election year, I think they will TRY to pass something.

It all depends if they cannot pass something, who gets the blame and possibly advantage in November elections.

Regards
GCstrat :)
 
Have heard a lot of comments ...

gcstrat said:
being election year, I think they will TRY to pass something.

It all depends if they cannot pass something, who gets the blame and possibly advantage in November elections.

Regards
GCstrat :)
Click to expand...

Guys and Gals,

I have been following this issue closely through several media sources (both liberal and conservative alike) and what I get from them is that "some" bill will defenitely make it to law. Lawmakers on both parties do not want to seem as if they did nothing about immigration in an election year. The question is exactly what the final bill will look like. It will probably be nothing even remotely similar to what the Senate bill currently looks like. From a legal immigrant perspective we have to hope that most of the provisons catering to us make it through. In one of the Radio programs I heard Bill Frist being questioned about increasing the number of legal immigrant quotas in this bill. His politically correct reply was that all these issues will be closely debated during conference. This is a little troubling because it proves that there are a lot of forces that are opposing legal provisions in this bill.

It will all come down to politics in the end. Other issues such as more scandals, bad press about Iraq and White House Admin problems may play a huge role to. Right now we just have to hope that we get lucky. Its about time we did ...

regards,

saras
 
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