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November VB Released DV2015

Hmmm. AF and EU started ahead of last year, but have now slipped behind. AS, SA and OC are all ahead of this point last year (in fact are all ahead of January numbers!).

I normally caution people to not worry about these early VBs too much because there is no feedback from the 2015 process factored into these numbers, but I can't follow my own advice....

It is interesting that the two big regions appear to be held back somewhat. IN the case of EU, 2014 saw them start in front and stay in front the whole year of where they had been in previous years, but then the brakes were slammed on in August - so perhaps for them at least it is understandable. For AF I think it is a sign of the increased density due to Nigeria being out - which seems to support the guess that AF progress will be slower and possibly even end lower than last year.
 
Britsimon said:
Hmmm. AF and EU started ahead of last year, but have now slipped behind. AS, SA and OC are all ahead of this point last year (in fact are all ahead of January numbers!).

I normally caution people to not worry about these early VBs too much because there is no feedback from the 2015 process factored into these numbers, but I can't follow my own advice....

It is interesting that the two big regions appear to be held back somewhat. IN the case of EU, 2014 saw them start in front and stay in front the whole year of where they had been in previous years, but then the brakes were slammed on in August - so perhaps for them at least it is understandable. For AF I think it is a sign of the increased density due to Nigeria being out - which seems to support the guess that AF progress will be slower and possibly even end lower than last year.
Click to expand...
Of essence to me wa..'even lowet than last year'...et you brutt!
 
Other VB published... Hope this month is my turn to get the 2nl...

If someone call o receive their 2nl please let us know....
 
Hi Britsimon,

first of all, I'd like to thank you and the other forum experts for everything you do everyday, with a lot of patience. I've been reading you for several months and I've been learning a lot.
Secondly, I'd like to ask your opinion about EU. Why do you think such a low cut-off occurred in this VB, compared to the same VB in DV-2014? Does this have something to do with DS-260 backlog? Or do you think it can depend on a higher response rate for EU? Can electronic forms have an impact on EU response rate?
 
What do you think, if I will call them today, they can say my when my interview should be? I'm current from October (30th of May filled DS-260) and I know, I'm really impatient. :D
 
Gabii said:
What do you think, if I will call them today, they can say my when my interview should be? I'm current from October (30th of May filled DS-260) and I know, I'm really impatient. :D
Click to expand...
if you have to call,call on or after 15th
 
xNikitax said:
Hi Britsimon,

first of all, I'd like to thank you and the other forum experts for everything you do everyday, with a lot of patience. I've been reading you for several months and I've been learning a lot.
Secondly, I'd like to ask your opinion about EU. Why do you think such a low cut-off occurred in this VB, compared to the same VB in DV-2014? Does this have something to do with DS-260 backlog? Or do you think it can depend on a higher response rate for EU? Can electronic forms have an impact on EU response rate?
Click to expand...


I would say it is a couple of things. I would imagine they would want to smooth out progress for EU this year. They basically did almost no EU processing in month 12 which is a waste of resources. So - at high level there would probably have been a plan to spread out the workload a bit better. That plan would have been in place prior to the year starting.

But then they have a couple of factors that can affect the VB numbers. One is the rate of issuances, denials etc, but of course it is too early to have any of that feedback yet.

The next thing is the responses and the processing of the DS260s. We can pretty much assume the demand is following the general upward trend that has been evidenced for a couple of years in the H1 demand. THere have been various sources from USCIS/DoS that have expressed surprised at the increased demand - although really that should not have been a surprise. We also know that the introduction of the DS-260 could have had a long term and short term impact (described here http://britsimonsays.com/?p=64) . Amazingly, it seems they have been caught out by the DS260 introduction - worse than a normal year. I do worry there will be a longer term price to pay for the delays, unless they start reducing the delays like NOW.
 
Gabii said:
What do you think, if I will call them today, they can say my when my interview should be? I'm current from October (30th of May filled DS-260) and I know, I'm really impatient. :D
Click to expand...

NO they won't know yet. Let them spend their time scheduling interviews for all rather than answering phonecalls....
 
Britsimon said:
I would say it is a couple of things. I would imagine they would want to smooth out progress for EU this year. They basically did almost no EU processing in month 12 which is a waste of resources. So - at high level there would probably have been a plan to spread out the workload a bit better. That plan would have been in place prior to the year starting.

But then they have a couple of factors that can affect the VB numbers. One is the rate of issuances, denials etc, but of course it is too early to have any of that feedback yet.

The next thing is the responses and the processing of the DS260s. We can pretty much assume the demand is following the general upward trend that has been evidenced for a couple of years in the H1 demand. THere have been various sources from USCIS/DoS that have expressed surprised at the increased demand - although really that should not have been a surprise. We also know that the introduction of the DS-260 could have had a long term and short term impact (described here http://britsimonsays.com/?p=64) . Amazingly, it seems they have been caught out by the DS260 introduction - worse than a normal year. I do worry there will be a longer term price to pay for the delays, unless they start reducing the delays like NOW.
Click to expand...

I have been reading the DV Lottery thread for a while now and kept coming back to it, as I found it to be quite resourceful. This year was my lucky year, won the H1B lottery and also got selected for DV2015 with a number that for sure will give me some emotions next summer. I think you had a similar number in 2014, Britsimon, 2015EU31xxx.
I share your thoughts on the EU progress in the November VB and this makes me wonder if I should go after AOS process with some doubts or with lots of doubts :) I haven't submit my DS-260 yet, as I was waiting for my H1B to kick in.

I find the entire process unpredictable which is pretty hard to digest.
Thank you for the useful information you all share here and for sharing all your experiences. I hope I will be able to give back to this community at least 1% from what I have learned :)
 
Emma28 said:
I have been reading the DV Lottery thread for a while now and kept coming back to it, as I found it to be quite resourceful. This year was my lucky year, won the H1B lottery and also got selected for DV2015 with a number that for sure will give me some emotions next summer. I think you had a similar number in 2014, Britsimon, 2015EU31xxx.
I share your thoughts on the EU progress in the November VB and this makes me wonder if I should go after AOS process with some doubts or with lots of doubts :) I haven't submit my DS-260 yet, as I was waiting for my H1B to kick in.

I find the entire process unpredictable which is pretty hard to digest.
Thank you for the useful information you all share here and for sharing all your experiences. I hope I will be able to give back to this community at least 1% from what I have learned :)
Click to expand...


That was exactly my scenario - and yes my number was 2014EU314XX. I got my notice that we had got through the 2013 H1B lottery just one day before we got the DV lottery win result. There is no need to delay the DS-260 for the H1B to kick in - the H1 is a dual intent visa. Given the timing of last year I would say you can be pretty confident of doing AoS with your number. I was current in June, but only missed May by a few hundred. Starting AoS is pretty safe - although as you probably know, ran into a bit of bureaucratic BS that caused me more stress than it should have been. I'm sure yours will be fine!!!
 
Britsimon said:
That was exactly my scenario - and yes my number was 2014EU314XX. I got my notice that we had got through the 2013 H1B lottery just one day before we got the DV lottery win result. There is no need to delay the DS-260 for the H1B to kick in - the H1 is a dual intent visa. Given the timing of last year I would say you can be pretty confident of doing AoS with your number. I was current in June, but only missed May by a few hundred. Starting AoS is pretty safe - although as you probably know, ran into a bit of bureaucratic BS that caused me more stress than it should have been. I'm sure yours will be fine!!!
Click to expand...

I hope my luck will still be around for awhile :) I have hope, I'm just afraid of the bureaucracy the process might involve. I will submit the DS-260 in the next few days (I already filled it out, just didn't hit the Submit button). Thanks.
 
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