New processing Dates posted

Extrapolation 101

A suspect mathematical model:

1. From the summary data, it took the NSC 30 days(+/-) to process 10 days worth of 485's. They are therefore processing one day of LIN's every three calendar days.
2. My LIN was received at the end of March 2002 which is 7 months later than the Aug 27 "processing date". My case should therefore be processed in 21 months (= 7X3). This means about Oct 2005.

I get the feeling that the NSC is feeding us is a load of rubbish in an attempt to keep us (and possible the press) from knowing the whole picture.

Any thoughts?
 
My thoughts

Looking at the way they are adjudicating sizable chunks upto April 2002, which is 8 months away from their published date, it seems they are preparing for the time that things get hot. At which time they will mop up the remaining apps and publish their new dates as a major impovement in the process. Maybe extract some major funding in the bargain.
 
I still cannot believe that people (atleast those who visit this forum frequently) ... still believes in the processing dates for 485 issued by NSC ....
 
Originally posted by IPC302
I still cannot believe that people (atleast those who visit this forum frequently) ... still believes in the processing dates for 485 issued by NSC ....
Click to expand...
:D :D :D
 
For all believers in NSC processing dates

This email is for all those people who believe in NSC processing dates....


I have some really good swamp land for sale... Going cheap.
I also have some shares in sky hooks, Father Christmas and the Tooth Fairy.
 
Re: Extrapolation 101 - ANother model

Originally posted by FunkyJunky
A suspect mathematical model:

1. From the summary data, it took the NSC 30 days(+/-) to process 10 days worth of 485's. They are therefore processing one day of LIN's every three calendar days.
2. My LIN was received at the end of March 2002 which is 7 months later than the Aug 27 "processing date". My case should therefore be processed in 21 months (= 7X3). This means about Oct 2005.

I get the feeling that the NSC is feeding us is a load of rubbish in an attempt to keep us (and possible the press) from knowing the whole picture.

Any thoughts?
Click to expand...

Here's another model:
When Processing resumed in the beginning of January they started processing the pending July 2001cases. It's been 11 months and they are processing (mostly) February 2002 cases. If you assume that they will start processing March 2002 cases in January, it would suggest that they would have processed 8 months cases in 12 months i.e. they take 1.5 months for a months backlog. My ND is in March. I should get my approval in January :)
Of course, there seem to be many people waiting from December and January. But then who said Statistics is perfect.:)
 
Going by Funky Junky's suspect mathematical model for March 2003 filers it is 19 x 3 = 57 months which is October 2008. Boeing can build 684 air planes in this time frame.
 
Look at the bright side

I don’t believe in NSC dates because it’s showing same month since the day I filed, at least around an year now.

Sounds too good to be true but they have done that in 2001-2002, Processed much more than initial receipt.

processed appli.
Aug-01 92,650
Sep-01 88,073
Oct-01 87,969
Nov-01 118,978
Dec-01 81,125
Jan-02 81,545
Feb-02 102,263
Mar-02 96,895
Apr-02 71,074
May-02 68,793
Jun-02 73,886
Jul-02 74,547

Not anywhere close to those but they have processed 53669 application in Oct 2003.
That means approx. 13417/center, 583/day (23 working days in Oct) and 29/person considering 20 person working in NSC. If you count the numbers it sounds tough but they have done it.
 
Statistics

I believe it was Sir Benjamin Disraeli, the British Prime Minister in 1868, who said:
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

I see that the NSC has opted for the third option.
 
Cutomcat said
.....
That means approx. 13417/center, 583/day (23 working days in Oct) and 29/person considering 20 person working in NSC. If you count the numbers it sounds tough but they have done it.
....

I don't know where did he get the number 20 working in NSC. Are you telling me that thousands of thousands of people are waiting for only 20 staff to get their acts together? It is unbelievable! Only 20! I hope that you are wrong and there are more "officers" in NSC. Considering the flu season, half of these people must be ill now!

It takes really long long time...:(
 
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