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My very own Asian prediction for 2014

I have manually calculated the visa issued for Nepal up to 14 Jan 2014, it has about 742 visa issued so far and I added 20% extra for any potential missing data in CEAC system and remaining 16 days of the month (or case # up to 3000), it come out about ~892. Let round it up to 900. So, this translate to 900 visa issued per 3000 case # for Nepal and we divide 900/3000 we will get 0.3 visa issued per case #. Based on this data and let assume the future Nepalis cases are running on the same rate, it will takes 12,000 case # to reach 3600 visas issue. I can safely say that Nepal at the minimal will need to have at least 12k or more case # before it can hit their country limit. This is a very conservative figure knowing that from 4k to 9k case # might be dominate by Iranian. So, i will not be surprise to even see Nepal hit to 15k or more before it can hit their country's limit.

If Nepal can stress up to 15k or more then the rest of Asia might be higher because Nepal should be the country in Asia that take lead in DV14 (highest visa issued and highest # of interviews scheduled so far).
 
One more point, based on my calculation so far Asia will issue less than 2000 visa up to Jan 14 which is 4 months since DV14 interviews started. 12/4 * 2000 = 6000. If Asia maintain the same pace which most of us worry about (case # will reached at 9k), it will only hit 6000 max visa issued and it is under performing. So I am expecting it to speed up their processing to meet the 10k quota in 2nd half of the year.
 
your every calculations are upto the mark. kayend still the problem is slow movement and again I want to say that, its sure KCC cannot limit both iran and Nepal by setting special cutoff, if they do so then what is so called 9k or 10k quota of asia cannot be filled and will yield many slectee without interview and very low number of visa for asia. without the limit to any we will not see high increase, so now the matter to wait and watch is who KCC choses to limit,, iran due to many cases of AP or Nepal due high sucess rate... with out putting any of them the special cutoff its impossible for vb to jump more than 1500 for next month..
kayend said:
One more point, based on my calculation so far Asia will issue less than 2000 visa up to Jan 14 which is 4 months since DV14 interviews started. 12/4 * 2000 = 6000. If Asia maintain the same pace which most of us worry about (case # will reached at 9k), it will only hit 6000 max visa issued and it is under performing. So I am expecting it to speed up their processing to meet the 10k quota in 2nd half of the year.
Click to expand...
 
Rayme said:
your every calculations are upto the mark. kayend still the problem is slow movement and again I want to say that, its sure KCC cannot limit both iran and Nepal by setting special cutoff, if they do so then what is so called 9k or 10k quota of asia cannot be filled and will yield many slectee without interview and very low number of visa for asia. without the limit to any we will not see high increase, so now the matter to wait and watch is who KCC choses to limit,, iran due to many cases of AP or Nepal due high sucess rate... with out putting any of them the special cutoff its impossible for vb to jump more than 1500 for next month..
Click to expand...

I totally agreed to what you have said. Without any special cut off, Asia might not even reach 10k case # and that might only produces 5-6k visa issued. Even they are able to clear enough AP cases it might still have less than 8k visas, so I think either they will increase the monthly visa allotment or put slow visa issuing country like Iran (due to AP cases where is needs time to process) into a special cut off. Nepal will put into special cut off when Nepal almost near country limit or logistically it cannot cope with the interviews scheduled.

If you look at year DV-11 where Bangladesh still in the picture, Bangladesh with 6k selectees in that year and KCC put them into special cut off on April 2011. Why put them into special only in April and not earlier like others Africa and Europe special countries?

My theory is this, KCC give Iran or even Nepal first 6 months (which has more than 80% of selectees combined) without putting any special cut off, so the 6 months return rate (AP, Refused or Ready status will return to the regional pool) will put aside. That's explained why interviews scheduled rate is almost the same in 6 months time. Usually, it should increase because of unused visa slots from previous months. So when to come to 7th month, it will put Iran into special cut off with the visa slots reversed in the past 6 months and the 7th month visa slots will distributed among those not under special cut off. Therefore, it will speed up the progress in Asia. If this theory is correct then we will start to see special cut off and Asia numbers speeding up in next month VB.

Anyway, I am sure KCC know what they are doing and they will need some measurement to speed thing up in order to meet the regional quota. After all, that's the reason it increased the number of selectees in the first place.
 
I guess Asia can rely on my predictions above.
Rayme and his bullcr@p about conversation with KCC for 30 mins and huge jump for Asia was a lie. Don't understand why do people do that. Stay classy forum members
 
It seems you are right till now (for may and june)...
But i am really worried....you know when your number like mine AS11***... So you are in the middle ..you cannot really estimate your chances... What do you expect for me guys??
 
I'm 106xx. Our numbers are not very far from each other. I can tell you one thing for sure. You WILL get interviewed. In August I would say. I am a little worried because my college starts on late August
 
Same here. My number is also 106xx. I'm thinking to teach in the Fall, which is probably the only chance for me. Otherwise I'll have a hard time to do a future plan... Of course, asset your case looks more critical then me, since I've got a F-1 visa.
Hopefuly we can get into interview around July or early August!
 
don't worry about anything my friends..... my CN is 18xxx and from Sri Lanka.. because of this GC i lost so many things in my life... everything will be ok..... but the problem i have is, Why they selected this much of 23k selectees from Asia in this time, if they are expecting to make September cutoff in 15k??? did they make a mistake like in 2012 ? why they are going to subject people in to frustration like this..........
 
The cutoff for the month of June will be approx 8000, what do you guess???
My case # is 12*** and from Nepal, I lost so many opportunities because of this DV and again gonna unplan for 4 months ie dv makes me puzzle. My case number is slightly more than the total number of selectee so I have seen a bit chances at last of fy. what do you think guys???
 
I guess my prediction was accurate. Sorry for all winners who didn't get to be interviewed.
Thank you Kayend and other members who contributed to this forum. May God be with you
 
aset said:
I guess my prediction was accurate. Sorry for all winners who didn't get to be interviewed.
Thank you Kayend and other members who contributed to this forum. May God be with you
Click to expand...

Wow very accurate indeed!
Any predictions for DV-2015? :D ;)
 
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