My analysis for EB2/I movement in last quarter of FY2009

[khodalmd]

Some indicated fear that EB2/I would be unavailable shortly. But I don't think, EB2-I will be unavailable in FY 2009. At least there would be a 10,000 spill over visa from EB1 category. As per, Charles's (DOS) testimony to Congress last year, EB1 spill over will go to EB2 and this will not have any per-country limit for allotting spill over visas. Strictly, this spill over visas will be allotted based on Priority date. In EB2 categories, only India and China are retrogressed. China has cut off date 15 Feb 2005 hence all spill over visas will go to EB2-I with priority date earlier than 15 FEB 2005. If still spill over visa available, it will go to EB2 India and EB2 China in order of priority dates.
Definitely, in July 2009 visa Bulletin (Normally State Department allots spill over visa in last quarter) EB2 India will hit Dec 2005 cut off dates. I did following analysis on other forum last month:

DOL approved labor as follow
For India all category (assume 50% are EB2)
2005 : 1350 (EB2-I : 675)
2006 : 22298 (EB2-I : 11149)
2007 : 24573 (EB2-I : 12286)
2007 before July 2007 (approximately 65%)
July 2007 : 15972 (EB2-I : 7986)
2007 labor approval is for FY (up to Sept 07).
If person have approved labor before July 2007, 99% he/she might have filed I 485.

Consider derivative (Dependent) factor : 2.5
Following numbers of I 485 pending applications for EB2-I:

2006 : 27872 (11149 *2.5)
2007 : 19965 (7986 *2.5)

Total numbers since 1 Jan 2006: 47837

As per Sen Kyl's information pending I 485 for EB2 India : 51717
EB2-I PD before 1 Jan 2006 are 51717 less 47837 = 3880

Fairly break up of EB2-I would be as follow:

PD Before 31 Dec 2005 : 3880 (if we consider 50% margin of error could not be more than 5820)
PD Before 31 Dec 2006 : 31752 (3880 + 27872)
PD before July 2007 : 51717 (3880 +27872 + 19965)


If this data is true, It would be easily hit Dec 2005 cut off date for EB2-I in July/August/Sept 2009 VB. It could be early 2006, if spill over visa from EB1 category are more than 10,000

Good luck Guys !!!

 

[desi2007]

i wish you are right. having an optmistic view makes you feel better. 2002 eb3's are still waiting. this whole fiasco is going crazy. For legal folks, i am not sure how much the new administration is planning to do. With legal immigration lobbies are sleeping, there will be no end to this wait. Atleast guys, send an email to the president obama

 

[gizza]

... It would be easily hit Dec 2005 cut off date for EB2-I in July/August/Sept 2009 VB. It could be early 2006, if spill over visa from EB1 category are more than 10,000

What if most of the Eb2 filings in 2006,07,08, etc are for those who already have older Eb3 priority date? ... if this is true, we may not see much movement for Eb2 for months/years to come.

Perhaps at some point Eb2 and Eb3 would have same cutoff dates by which time there is no greater backlog of Eb3 when compared to Eb2.