Mood of Retrogression this October.

[nTan]

According to my attorney ...
until and unless there is an change in law...

EB3 and EB2 will be seeing another big retrogression of dates this OCT...
[Thats the period when USCIS will start a new year with a fresh reordered List]


Whats your thought in this ....

Will EB3 dates for India drag back to Jan 2000?

 

[marlon2006]

Let's put this way, let's imagine your lawyer is wrong:
If the cut-off date stay as is and do not retrogress, that is negative enough. Honestly, since USCIS is working under "expected demand", until 245(i) cases get cleared from USCIS, it is unlikely we will observe significant movement of visa numbers cut-off dates. As you may likely be aware, 245(i) cases are still cooking at DOL. I think the time to advance dates would be now while 245(i) are not ready to be processed. Between October 2006-2007 I can't see any significant movement there.

Now regarding the immigration reform, I believe this may pass someday. As is now, it is unlikely the House is going to allow amnesty to pass. That is total unpractical anyway. Even if amnesty passes poor EB applicants would have -again- cases delayed and overstepped by the illegal aliens case.

Proposed steps to minimize our problems:
Our community should lobby and persuade senators to implement a simple recapture of visa numbers or temporary measure to bring some relief to our cause. As I keep saying, relying on bills attached to the illegal aliens issue is suicidal.

According to my attorney ...
until and unless there is an change in law...

EB3 and EB2 will be seeing another big retrogression of dates this OCT...
[Thats the period when USCIS will start a new year with a fresh reordered List]


Whats your thought in this ....

Will EB3 dates for India drag back to Jan 2000?

 

[saras76]

Immigration bill

I agree with marlon. I think its time we stopped wasting time guessing the PD movement and waiting on useless visa bulletins. We need to divert our attention to immigration reform whether long-term or short-term. If immigration reform fails to materialize within a year then we have to seriously think of moving our separate ways. Another important aspect is to make the most of what we have right now. Save money, get that higher education and look into other possibilities. The world does not start and end in the US. There are however lots of resources that this country has to offer. We need to make it a point to utilize each and everyone of those resources while we are here. Legal immigrants live under the constant fear of the USCIS and all that crap while illegals break laws openly. We need to wisen up and use our brains to take advantage of every situation we see. We are smart enough to do this.

If we are not being allowed to become permanent residents, then lets take as much (knowledge, training, wealth) as we can while we are here. In the end we will atleast have some wealth that will help us move to other places. I have been in this mindset for almost a year now and encourage others to do the same.

saras76

 

[asiandude]

nTan

whats the logic behind your attorney's theory that EB3 and EB2 will see a bigger retrogession this Oct.

Because on the contrary in Oct there will be new GC numbers available for next year.

According to my attorney ...
until and unless there is an change in law...

EB3 and EB2 will be seeing another big retrogression of dates this OCT...
[Thats the period when USCIS will start a new year with a fresh reordered List]


Whats your thought in this ....

Will EB3 dates for India drag back to Jan 2000?

 

[marlon2006]

Asiandude, 140,000 visa numbers should be available in October, but then 245(i) cases are there brewing at the DOL. It is expected that there are at least 300,000 245(i) cases to be processed. If you follow that rationale, there is indication that things can get worse before it gets better. That's the why.

nTan

whats the logic behind your attorney's theory that EB3 and EB2 will see a bigger retrogession this Oct.

Because on the contrary in Oct there will be new GC numbers available for next year.

 

[saras76]

Key words are "expected" and "speculation"

Asiandude, 140,000 visa numbers should be available in October, but then 245(i) cases are there brewing at the DOL. It is expected that there are at least 300,000 245(i) cases to be processed. If you follow that rationale, there is indication that things can get worse before it gets better. That's the why.

asiandude,

what marlon has stated is indeed true. But do keep in mind that these are all speculations. 245is are expected to hit later on this year and the number being thrown around is 300K. Of those how many will make it to 140/485 stage is another story. A lot of these were also filed in a hurry so there is no telling how many will get rejected.

As with everything in life there are two extreme views and somewhere in the middle there is reality. You should choose for yourself where you want to stand. The extreme pessimist will tell you that EB3 India will take 11-12 years to become current, the extreme optimist will tell you that dates will become current within a year or less. The realist will tell you that no one really knows enough to accurately tell you exactly how the PDs will progress so we should wait and watch. You decide for yourself which bandwagon you would rather be a part of

regards,

saras

 

[holen]

Please clarify regarding 245i

Hi,

This may be a naive question. Excuse me if so. I know 245is are for the undocumented immigrants to start some sort of GC process. This process was started in 2001 or so. Most of these applicants should be doing family based GC and maybe a few of them employment based. Now, if there are applications for employment based GC (as applicable with 245is), should they have to start with a labor certification process and then I-140/I-485? If so, why it affects only EB3? If it is assumed that there are some EB3 related applicants, where they would have found sponsors in 2001? First of all if they had sponsors, they would not be undocumented immigrants. Or am I getting 245i cases totally wrong. Pl. throw some light.

Thanks

asiandude,

what marlon has stated is indeed true. But do keep in mind that these are all speculations. 245is are expected to hit later on this year and the number being thrown around is 300K. Of those how many will make it to 140/485 stage is another story. A lot of these were also filed in a hurry so there is no telling how many will get rejected.

As with everything in life there are two extreme views and somewhere in the middle there is reality. You should choose for yourself where you want to stand. The extreme pessimist will tell you that EB3 India will take 11-12 years to become current, the extreme optimist will tell you that dates will become current within a year or less. The realist will tell you that no one really knows enough to accurately tell you exactly how the PDs will progress so we should wait and watch. You decide for yourself which bandwagon you would rather be a part of

regards,

saras

 

[marlon2006]

Look at the cut-off dates for EB3 and you will know that is for real. Therei s no speculation. Regarding "how many" 245i will make it to the 140/485 stage, the answer is most of them. People is hungry for this, high demand to immigrate here you know.

God Willing something changes, but that's the current scenario.

asiandude,

what marlon has stated is indeed true. But do keep in mind that these are all speculations. 245is are expected to hit later on this year and the number being thrown around is 300K. Of those how many will make it to 140/485 stage is another story. A lot of these were also filed in a hurry so there is no telling how many will get rejected.

As with everything in life there are two extreme views and somewhere in the middle there is reality. You should choose for yourself where you want to stand. The extreme pessimist will tell you that EB3 India will take 11-12 years to become current, the extreme optimist will tell you that dates will become current within a year or less. The realist will tell you that no one really knows enough to accurately tell you exactly how the PDs will progress so we should wait and watch. You decide for yourself which bandwagon you would rather be a part of

regards,

saras

 

[marlon2006]

You might want to search 245(i) threads for a thorough explanation. Last time I read a debate on this forum, there are all sorts of 245(i) categories, but a number of them are taken quotas out of EB3 skilled immigrants. Yes, those were people out of status who were allowed to 'correct' their status at the expense of honest people like us.

Hi,

This may be a naive question. Excuse me if so. I know 245is are for the undocumented immigrants to start some sort of GC process. This process was started in 2001 or so. Most of these applicants should be doing family based GC and maybe a few of them employment based. Now, if there are applications for employment based GC (as applicable with 245is), should they have to start with a labor certification process and then I-140/I-485? If so, why it affects only EB3? If it is assumed that there are some EB3 related applicants, where they would have found sponsors in 2001? First of all if they had sponsors, they would not be undocumented immigrants. Or am I getting 245i cases totally wrong. Pl. throw some light.

Thanks

 

[asiandude]

Marlon, Saras, Holen, aTan

I get the logic on how 245(i) cases may or may not impact EB3 in October 2006 onwards when new year quota opens. But I don't understand what has 245(i) got to do with Eb2 and how does it affect EB2 from October 2006 onwards when new year quota opens.

According to my attorney ...
until and unless there is an change in law...

EB3 and EB2 will be seeing another big retrogression of dates this OCT...
[Thats the period when USCIS will start a new year with a fresh reordered List]


Whats your thought in this ....

Will EB3 dates for India drag back to Jan 2000?

 

[blondhenge]

# of 245(i) cases

Asiandude, 140,000 visa numbers should be available in October, but then 245(i) cases are there brewing at the DOL. It is expected that there are at least 300,000 245(i) cases to be processed. If you follow that rationale, there is indication that things can get worse before it gets better. That's the why.

The DOL recently said there are only around 250,000 TOTAL outstanding cases at the BECs right now. This would include ALL 245(i) as well as ALL of the other labor certs filed prior to PERM. With the stated current approval rate running around 50%, a worst case scenario (let's assume 75% of the outstanding are 245(i) and 25% pre-perm) would be about 93,250 total for 245(i). That's a far cry from the 'estimated' 300,000 that everybody is throwing around.

I am not being over optimistic here. I have only summarized certain facts as published by DOL recently.

 

[vicky007]

Guys,

I have written this in a number of threads on this Portal.245i cases that fall under EB2 will be very very miniscule also ,when you count the 245i cases and its likely effect on the dates moving forward, remember that more then 85% of those 245i filings are Family based, after you take out the number of cases filed under Employment based Unskilled category the numbers applying under the EB2 and EB3 category would be down by a very wide margin.

Check this thread:
http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=209618&page=3&pp=15

Regards.

 

[ufo2002]

Now, I have not done any hard figure calculations so what I am about to say is just off my guts.

I keep my eyes on EB3 World PD since I am in that category. Seems like all regions are now more or less settled down on May 2001, with India slowly crawling up to May soon. My hunch is that coming October 2006 later when the new set of Visa Numbers becomes available, the people from 245i, most of whom will have PDs of April 2001, will immediately get first dips into the Visa Numbers. I believe many other forum posters have already mentioned the same thing, so Oct 2006 will not provide any relief to all of us EB3s. It will be interesting to see which regions of EB3 will move out of the May 2001 hole. As I have no idea which regions the majority of 245i people are from, it's only a guess right now that India and China would be the obvious victims.

The only thing that will save us (from insanity for one thing) is that the Federal Government legislates something like creating an extra 400,000 Visa Numbers just for the fiscal year 2001. Most of the theories and analysis given in the forums point to the 245i as being the reason for this retrogression. That's my opinion.

 

[for_gc]

What about EB2

Now, I have not done any hard figure calculations so what I am about to say is just off my guts.

I keep my eyes on EB3 World PD since I am in that category. Seems like all regions are now more or less settled down on May 2001, with India slowly crawling up to May soon. My hunch is that coming October 2006 later when the new set of Visa Numbers becomes available, the people from 245i, most of whom will have PDs of April 2001, will immediately get first dips into the Visa Numbers. I believe many other forum posters have already mentioned the same thing, so Oct 2006 will not provide any relief to all of us EB3s. It will be interesting to see which regions of EB3 will move out of the May 2001 hole. As I have no idea which regions the majority of 245i people are from, it's only a guess right now that India and China would be the obvious victims.

The only thing that will save us (from insanity for one thing) is that the Federal Government legislates something like creating an extra 400,000 Visa Numbers just for the fiscal year 2001. Most of the theories and analysis given in the forums point to the 245i as being the reason for this retrogression. That's my opinion.

ufo2002, I know that your main concerns are for EB3 India, I will like to know what are your thoughts about EB2 India. Do you think it will be current anytime soon?

Regards.

 

[dryheat]

I don't think retrogession is based on 245i, makes no sence. The real reason behind I think is USCIS reorganization. Bi-specialization initiative is just first step in that direction. Processing time for I140 in NSC jumped 4 month in just 5 days.

Bi-Specialization and Reshaping Service Centers Processing Times Report:
Immigration-law

 

[saras76]

Lets stop speculating ..

Guys and Gals,

I know that I have been guilty of this myself but I have learnt the hard way that all this speculation is a waste of time. Its good to be informed and have an idea of what to expect but daily speculations only stress the mind even more. I for one am done speculating. The wiser thing would be to discuss the visa bulletins as they come out. If there is movement we can discuss that, if there is no movement within EB3 then there is nothing to discuss. Until then lets all follow the immigration bill and do things to improve our situation.

regards,

saras76

 

[AGC4ME]

Does the report mean that they have already transferred relevant files from one SC to another and are processing in FIFO fashion ?

 

[marlon2006]

If you are correct about the astonishing ~50% rate of rejection, then perhaps there are other reasons to keep such agressive cut-off dates ?
Also, is the May visa bulletin stating that EB3 world can become unavailable in the next months ahead ? Someone commented that.


04/06/2006: DOL Report of Status of PERM and Backlog Applications Processing as of 03/17/2006

DOL has reported the following statistics to the AILA:
PERM:
Total Received: 80,272
Certified: 36,587
Denied: 23,305
Audit: 24,960
Withdrawn: 1,950
Backlog Cases:
Total Received: 363,000+
Total Completed: 108,000+
Total Certified: 50,000
Balance: 255,000
Full data entry will will be completed by 06/30/2006 as scheduled.

The DOL recently said there are only around 250,000 TOTAL outstanding cases at the BECs right now. This would include ALL 245(i) as well as ALL of the other labor certs filed prior to PERM. With the stated current approval rate running around 50%, a worst case scenario (let's assume 75% of the outstanding are 245(i) and 25% pre-perm) would be about 93,250 total for 245(i). That's a far cry from the 'estimated' 300,000 that everybody is throwing around.

I am not being over optimistic here. I have only summarized certain facts as published by DOL recently.

 

[nTan]

Even with new GC numbers ... there might be an retrogression..

whats the logic behind your attorney's theory that EB3 and EB2 will see a bigger retrogession this Oct.
Because on the contrary in Oct there will be new GC numbers available for next year.

Yes ... Even with new GC numbers ... there might be an retrogression..

Let me explain this ...
USCIS goes(tries) FIFO in terms of approving 485 ... FIFO on the list they prepare in the begining of the year ... Thats' Oct. The list contains the name of all the approvable petitions.

In the begining of the year .. they have a list .. they sort it by PD and then they go approving... or RFEing etc.

If some petition (which are not in there list) become approvable in that year .. they do not include the petition for that year ... they just move in to the next year ... that is a new approvable petition gets reordered in the next year list ...

This with Example :
Say a guy applied for Labor in the year 1999. For some reason his labor got approved in Jan 2006 ... and he is from India and EB-3 .
He got his 140 approved in a month time and since his PD was current he applied for 485.

Now his case is approvable ... but he won't be considered this year .. His name will appear in next year(OCT 96) list, probably on the top.

Let me assume some random number:
Say for India, there are 10 visa number for 1st Quater.
Now there are 12 guys who become approvable this year .. and moved on to Oct list ...
lets say there PD is as follows
1/1999,2/1999,3/1999,3/1999,4/1999,5/1999 .........12/1999

Ok now in OCT ... when USCIS sees 12 new guys joined in with earlier PD's and they have just 10 visa number for the quater ...
Then they put the cut-off date at 10/1999 ....

If in Sept of this year ... the dates were 10/2001 ... then we will say the dates retrogressed by 2 years ....

 

[blondhenge]

BECs

If you are correct about the astonishing ~50% rate of rejection, then perhaps there are other reasons to keep such agressive cut-off dates ?
Also, is the May visa bulletin stating that EB3 world can become unavailable in the next months ahead ? Someone commented that.


04/06/2006: DOL Report of Status of PERM and Backlog Applications Processing as of 03/17/2006

DOL has reported the following statistics to the AILA:
PERM:
Total Received: 80,272
Certified: 36,587
Denied: 23,305
Audit: 24,960
Withdrawn: 1,950
Backlog Cases:
Total Received: 363,000+
Total Completed: 108,000+
Total Certified: 50,000
Balance: 255,000
Full data entry will will be completed by 06/30/2006 as scheduled.

I believe that the 'rejection' rate is due more to non-compliance with 45 day letters. If the 45 days elapses, then the case is considered closed. Not really a rejection, but still a case disposition with no LC resulting from it. Anyway, based on these DOL stats (thanks for summarizing them by the way), I feel a little more confident that this process will not draw out for years and years and years (just maybe years...)