Model

S

shaken

Registered Users (C)
All,

There will be lots of applications (about 75000 applications compare to average of 35000 - 40000 applications per month) with ND/RD in August. VSC may take October + November 2000 months to prcess 08/99 I-485 cases.

I am also expecting them to process about 40000 cases each month then onwards.. i.e. if someone\'s RD/ND is Juanuary 2000, (s)he should get his case approved by April 2001.. OR if RD/ND is in March 2000, (s)he should expect approval by June 2001..

The process may get slowed down during 15th September to January 15, 2001 due to H-1 Processing, Election, Holidays and extra load because of S. 2045.

Do you subscibe to my model.. Please express your views publicly..
 
No Title

THis looks good. But any thoughts why FP is sent out for 4/00(ND), 5/00(ND) cases where their priority dates are later than mine. All other details are same as mine.

My info:
PD 10/96, ND 11/99, EB3, INDIA
 
No Title

The Model seems to fit the current trends and looking at the postings, September months speically this year being an election year there is pressure to process citizenship cases so that those folks can go out and vote.... and also the new H1 quota starts... The only thing that is still puzzling is the FP\'s like the previous gentlemen wrote about the FP of people in Oct - March are not processesed but later dates have gotten notices.
 
No Title

There are tons and tons of I485 pending applications for the month of August 1999. You are right, it make take upto end of November to clear up these. Then the holiday season starts, and processing is bound to slow down and with all the delays in mail during christmas time, things may get worse.

--Mango
 
No Title

I partly agree but, the reality is though the S.2045 has been signed and became effective, INS has to issue an official notification to this effect to all SC. This won\'t happend until end of this year, I guess.

As far as processing citizenship applications, the time to register to vote is over. So, there is no point in expediting these applications. Infact, I don\'t thing they will touch any citizenship applications.

I can see there is a slow down on 485 processing. I can\'t speculate the reason. But, given the volume of 485 applications and the new law, I am pretty sure there will be some movement in 485 processing down the line.
 
No Title

Thanks guys and gals for your inputs.

I think we should wait for more evidences till we change our model for people with NDs later than March 2000. They might have created two workforces - "Regular work-force" to process I -485s and "Ad-hoc workforce" to process I-485 cases pending more than 180 days.

Lets wait for more and clear evidence.
 
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yes the model seems very accurate. Howeve some 1/2000s have been approved .. luck ?

r3
 
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I think there is another factor: cases are not FIFO.
Now they are processing Aug + Sep. that\'s means Aug guys have to wait longer.
 
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What about PD movement in EB category for India & China. With the new S-2045 law, we know that PD\'s will move forward.
When can we expect a substantial forward movement of PD\'s ? Any ideas, anyone?
Do you think this might happen during the next visa bulletin, due in mid-November for availability numbers in December 2000?

For people whose 485\'s are pending but PD\'s not current can get approvals only after their respective PD\'s go current.

Does anybody have any inputs to share on PD movement?
 
No Title

I think there are 200,000 wasted GC for last 2 years and 140,000 this years quota can be used to issuse GC this year, so INS has 340,000 GC for this year they can approve!! so everybody should get GC this year???? any thoughts!!!!!!!!!!!??????????
 
No Title

I think your model is going to depend on how the oct-mar cases get processed. a good indicator is going to be the fp notices issued to the filers from oct - mar timeframe. we\'ve heard iio\'s say that they are planning to do all paperwork on the case before sending the fp notices. question is are they really doing that now? has any oct\'99 called up vsc to find when they are getting the fp notice? also, oct\'99 should check what is the status of their case. e.g. is it with an adjudication officer or not??

so far, vsc has operated under the following model (and am guessing some aspects of it, though not all)...

the records division pre-processes the 485 applications and sends fp notices.

once the fp result is received the records division updates the file and marks it ready for processing.

the adjudication division then gets those files and works on approvals/denials/rfe\'s. if an rfe is issued the file physically stays with the adjudication officer. the records division on receiving rfe response provides it to the adjudication officer and depending on the work load with the officer it gets approved. the approved cases move back to the records division, who update phone message (probably not always!! ;-)) and send approval notices etc.

if they decide to send fp notices after doing all the processing, it is going to mean a lot of procedural changes and possibly additional delays.

i think next month or two is going to be really crucial in terms of coming with a predictable model. but more important is the state of cases filed in oct\'99...
 
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