maybe a basic question, but can someone explain...

[gcwhenever]

When USCIS says that backward movement in visa dates is because of excessive demand, what does this actually mean?

For example, Murthy says below:
The explanation for the backward movement in the cutoff dates for EB2 for India and China is simply based on demand under this category. The Visa Bulletin states that this is the result of heavy demand for visa numbers, particularly caused by the USCIS's requesting immigrant visa numbers for I-485 applicants from these two countries. They also note that further retrogression cannot be ruled out during the second quarter of the fiscal year. The second quarter of the government (including the USCIS) fiscal year runs from January 1, 2008 to March 31, 2008.

But what does it actually mean?
So since China's cutoff date in EB-2 has moved back by three years to Jan 1, 2003, does this mean that previously USCIS was processing earliest date EB-2 China cases of Jan 2006, and now its earliest date has moved back to Jan 2003??
Is this because LC approvals are made in random order, and suddenly many Chinese LC approvals with PDs of 2003 went thru, or does it mean that USCIS is not processing in FIFO order, in fact in a completely random way??

can someone please explain?

 

[no_more_anger]

With LCs getting cleared from backlog centers, it could be that suddenly there is *some*
number of older applications. I *do not* believe that USCIS knows for sure how many
applications from say Jan 02-Jan 04 are filed/going-to-be-filed. They probably have an idea
of number of LCs of that period cleared and are taking precautionary steps.

The other problem (which is going to make life of EB2s hell) is that people who had
originally filed for LC in 2002'ish time frame in EB3 would now start applying with their
old PD and in EB2 category. I'm not sure of the count of such people, but since I already
know a few, I feel this number is not something that can be ignored.

HTH

 

[Jackolantern]

In less than 2 months they have already used up 38% of the annual quota for India and China, so for the next 2 or 3 months they won't be approving EB2 or EB3 cases from India/China, nor accepting new I-485s from them, unless their PD is veeeeeerrrry old.

 

[tusharvk]

This may be a cyclical trend. So, what's next? Now we know that life of EB2 IN is hellish; so new set of PERM filers from IN will go for EB3? or will both eb3+eb2 somehow shoot for Eb1?

With LCs getting cleared from backlog centers, it could be that suddenly there is *some*
number of older applications. I *do not* believe that USCIS knows for sure how many
applications from say Jan 02-Jan 04 are filed/going-to-be-filed. They probably have an idea
of number of LCs of that period cleared and are taking precautionary steps.

The other problem (which is going to make life of EB2s hell) is that people who had
originally filed for LC in 2002'ish time frame in EB3 would now start applying with their
old PD and in EB2 category. I'm not sure of the count of such people, but since I already
know a few, I feel this number is not something that can be ignored.

HTH

 

[tusharvk]

I would agree and further add that EB2 IN with PD in 06 or 07 have a long time to wait even before they can file 485. It is unlikely that they will be able to file 485 in fy'08 at all.

In less than 2 months they have already used up 38% of the annual quota for India and China, so for the next 2 or 3 months they won't be approving EB2 or EB3 cases from India/China, nor accepting new I-485s from them, unless their PD is veeeeeerrrry old.

 

[gcWudBeHere]

I am still sure that there would be approvals for EB2 and EB3 cases for India and China in the coming few months. 38% of annual quota amounts to about 1000 GCs in each category (EB2 or EB3), and I would think that CIS is still processing applications that have been assigned/tagged visa numbers. More precisely, DOS has issued 38% of visa numbers, all of which have to be converted to GCs. I believe CIS has not converted all of them to GCs yet. As a result, we would see approvals trickling in the few months to come.

Of course, applicants who missed the opportunity to file 485 during July/Aug season have a long enduring wait.

In less than 2 months they have already used up 38% of the annual quota for India and China, so for the next 2 or 3 months they won't be approving EB2 or EB3 cases from India/China, nor accepting new I-485s from them, unless their PD is veeeeeerrrry old.

 

[applygc]

I believe approvals are expected only for EB3 not for EB2.

 

[byThorbyOdin]

This may be a cyclical trend. So, what's next? Now we know that life of EB2 IN is hellish; so new set of PERM filers from IN will go for EB3? or will both eb3+eb2 somehow shoot for Eb1?

Conversion from EB3 to EB2 is fairly trivial - demonstrative experience in a field of expertise is in most cases sufficient. The burden of proof for EB1 is a completely different animal. Its far more difficult than a simplistic "re-apply" in that category after some time period.

 

[TkNeo]

I am reading all these threads that say EB2 is going to be as difficult as EB3 for some time going forward. Can anyone through some light on why that is happening. I am too confused !

If old EB3 people are switching to EB2, then it can't be something new. People would have always done that. So rate of EB2 should stay constant ?

 

[Jackolantern]

If old EB3 people are switching to EB2, then it can't be something new. People would have always done that.

People weren't always doing that at the rate they have been doing it this year.

 

[manwithnoname]

Correct, I wouldn't bother about my EB category if both EB2 and EB3 are current (or close apart). In recent years, the difference in the cut off dates in the EB categories for India have increased. As a result an EB3 filer with PD somewhere in 2002 will change employer (for GC) and use the experience gained past 2002 for GC purpose - thus qualifying for EB2 (keeping the PD intact).