• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

Lottery by regions only or also by countries?

V

Veggie3

Registered Users (C)
Hi,

I know the lottery is drawn according to regions, and there's a formula for a number of selectees from each region (Africa, Europe, Asia, etc.).

Here's my question: is there a limit per country as well? According to the State Dept., in DV 2012 about 9 million applicants out of 14.7 million (!) were from 2 countries: Bangladesh (~7.6 million) and Nigeria (~1.4 million). So what happens when they draw, and in Asia 95% of all those selected are from Bangladesh? Do they redraw?

This way, it seems to me that the lottery is actually made up of numerous draws, including many rounds that "correct" the results in case one country in any given region gets too many selectees. In Asia and Africa it seems to be a must.

Is that correct?? If that's the case, then each year's lottery was tilted to begin with even within the region, and it's a myth that all applicants within the SAME region have an equal chance.:confused:
 
I have a huge feeling that some countries have some limit or else somehing embarassing could happen.. Let say for DV 2012, NO SINGLE ENTRY WAS DISQUILIFIED thus all the selectees were legit... so, bangladesh would get about 52 000 selectees since they made up 52% of all the winners, Nigeria would get 30 000 & 13 000 for Ukraine, & since the rule clearely state that no single country can get more than 7% that mean 3 500 visas maximum per country.
so, we have bangkadesh with 52 000 selectess out of 100 000, Ukraine with 13 000 & Nigeria with 30 000, that would make 95 000 selectees for just 3 counries & 5 000 for the rest & since no more than 3 500 visas per countries so 3500 for Bengladesh, 3500 ukraine & 3500 Nigeria that make 9 500 visa out of 50 000 so 40 500 visa left for 5 000 selectess so that would result with at least 35 500 visas left... See the problem here? I am sure DOS new about this issue so they put a limit for certain countries knowing that Banglasdesh make more than 50% of all entries... Some countries must have limits or there is a selectees limit per country
Veggie3 said:
Hi,

I know the lottery is drawn according to regions, and there's a formula for a number of selectees from each region (Africa, Europe, Asia, etc.).

Here's my question: is there a limit per country as well? According to the State Dept., in DV 2012 about 9 million applicants out of 14.7 million (!) were from 2 countries: Bangladesh (~7.6 million) and Nigeria (~1.4 million). So what happens when they draw, and in Asia 95% of all those selected are from Bangladesh? Do they redraw?

This way, it seems to me that the lottery is actually made up of numerous draws, including many rounds that "correct" the results in case one country in any given region gets too many selectees. In Asia and Africa it seems to be a must.

Is that correct?? If that's the case, then each year's lottery was tilted to begin with even within the region, and it's a myth that all applicants within the SAME region have an equal chance.:confused:
Click to expand...
 
The lottery chooses about 2 times the country cap or the lottery cap whichever comes first. So when then start picking numbers countries that over enter will hit their country cap ( I think they cap at about 9000 "winners " ) and then the computer will no longer allow selected numbers from those countries to enter the winner list. The machine then goes until it hits the 100000 cap/regional caps. So at pick number 1 for Africa all africa entries have an equal chance but because so many are from Nigeria there is a big chance that a Nigerian id is drawn. However if/when Nigerian numbers hit the 2x the country cap no more Nigerian numbers will be declared winners. Also as Nigeria process visas if they hit the country cap without using all the winners they will stop processing more from that country. I don't think this has ever happened because so many Nigerians apply and are disqualified ( hence the need to pick 2 times the country cap )
 
This is exactly my point - the lottery is NEVER random. There are limitations even within the regions, and not surprisingly, most countries do have selectees, something that would haven't happened if the process were purely random.

I'm one of the 22,000 and I'm really tired of people here on the board who attack us and say the process should have been random so it's OK it was revoked. How do you think there are selectees every year from small countries that has very few applicants, then? How do you think there are selectees from Luxemburg, Malta, or bhutan? Is there anyone here who's foolish enough to believe the draw is RANDOM? They have to keep correcting it!!

I know that whatever we say won't reverse the idiot bureaucrats' decision. I can only wish that one of those State Dept. douches' family member wins the Kentucky or whatever lottery those hicks have, and after they'll be happy for winning 20 million $$$, the results will be revoked after 13 days!!!
 
I knew it... I had an e-argument over the selectees limit with one members who claimed that ther is not limit in selection (the one who wrote the wikipedia arcitle) who said that the low bangaly selectees was due to disqualification... By the way this was common sense So Nigerian born, Bangladesh born & Ukraine born have the lowest chance especialy bangladesh born since 6-9000 selectees for 7.5 entries
S_Owoh said:
The lottery chooses about 2 times the country cap or the lottery cap whichever comes first. So when then start picking numbers countries that over enter will hit their country cap ( I think they cap at about 9000 "winners " ) and then the computer will no longer allow selected numbers from those countries to enter the winner list. The machine then goes until it hits the 100000 cap/regional caps. So at pick number 1 for Africa all africa entries have an equal chance but because so many are from Nigeria there is a big chance that a Nigerian id is drawn. However if/when Nigerian numbers hit the 2x the country cap no more Nigerian numbers will be declared winners. Also as Nigeria process visas if they hit the country cap without using all the winners they will stop processing more from that country. I don't think this has ever happened because so many Nigerians apply and are disqualified ( hence the need to pick 2 times the country cap )
Click to expand...
By the way, I think the country cap might be about 6 000 because nigeria & Bangladesh who made by them self 9 millions entries for 14.7 entries world widee only got 6 000 last years so the cap might be arround 6 000
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Well, peoples from low entries in africa has the best chances
Veggie3 said:
This is exactly my point - the lottery is NEVER random. There are limitations even within the regions, and not surprisingly, most countries do have selectees, something that would haven't happened if the process were purely random.

I'm one of the 22,000 and I'm really tired of people here on the board who attack us and say the process should have been random so it's OK it was revoked. How do you think there are selectees every year from small countries that has very few applicants, then? How do you think there are selectees from Luxemburg, Malta, or bhutan? Is there anyone here who's foolish enough to believe the draw is RANDOM? They have to keep correcting it!!

I know that whatever we say won't reverse the idiot bureaucrats' decision. I can only wish that one of those State Dept. douches' family member wins the Kentucky or whatever lottery those hicks have, and after they'll be happy for winning 20 million $$$, the results will be revoked after 13 days!!!
Click to expand...
 
It gets hard to know how many entries needed from places with a lot of disqualifications. So the country cap for Nigeria is about 5k but you need to pull much more than that because of the number of entries that will not qualify. Because of issues like that they need to draw about twice the total number to get to 50 K winners.
 
I always wonder why people from Nigeria for example can go up to 6000, similarly winners from Ethiopia, Ghana etc are also around 6K then other countries only get about 150?
I mean, how is that fair, if it's really diversity, shouldn't they have a similar number for each country and for those with less applicants per country then all from that country should win.
It's not very diverse if 1/3rd of the winners come from North Africa.
 
So you have millions of people that apply. Lets talk only of Africa to make it simple . If Africa has 2 million total entries and over 1 million are from Nigeria then "fair" based on number of entries would be that Nigeria would get over half of all the visas available. To eliminate this effect countries that would "unfairly" benefit from the whole country applying are limited to a percentage roughly based on their population percentage in the area. So the DV lottery is a balance of fairness in the face of unfairness
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top