Latest from NSC regarding I-485 processing

Empirical Evidence

Firstly I am not out to scare or depress anyone. I was very clear to state the assumptions underlaying my calculations. I do not profess to have any inside knowledge of how the service centers work.

However I believe my estimates are consistent with the emprical evidence. I have been keeping a personal snapshot of the Rupnet summary page for NSC on a weekly basis since the start of November last year. From that I try to get an idea of how many cases are being worked and what percentage that represents as a total of cases in Rupnet. By cases worked I mean Approvals + (RFE's - RFE's Approved).

From the data I have collected you can get an idea of how long it takes them to work a RD month. Please find attached the data for July 01 - March 02 RD's. If you look at how many weeks it takes from the time the curve starts to accelerate, until it plateau's it takes about 12 weeks.

If NOTHING ELSE CHANGES, I stand behind my original estimates.
 
Two years ago they used to spend

20 minutes per case for H1bs and H4s. It may not be a realistic comparison but I am sure they have place much more stringent regulations for examining cases and obviously more for I-485s.
I doubt they have sped up their hand-to-eye-to-mind coordinations since then as they are adding these new "quickly trained freshly picked out from the street" officers.
On a regular scenerio they got to have more than 19 adjudicators working on EB I-485 cases. Other numbers (temporary numbers) like 5, 6, 10 should not matter here.
 
15 min is a very reasonable assumption.
Most of the things they look at are all flaged, for example if a person is a security threat that case will be flaged(they use similar system at airport, and I bet they cannot afford 15 min for each case there). All they have to check would be status(have they been out of status any time in life or not), employment letter etc.
So far a straight forward case they would not spend more than 15 mins, if they are unsure of employment status or b.c or medical
they send rfe(which they are doing preaty regularly now)
Many of the routine jobs are done by contractors even before it goes to the officer for adjudication

This is my humle opinion
 
The Problem is Arithmetic

I am in the curious position of being hammered by those people who think that 15 minutes per case is not enough, as well as those who think my estimates as to what might happen to waiting times are outrageously large.

The issue as I see it relates to arithmetic.

At 15 minutes per case (average) 32 cases per officer per day, this would require 12.5 officers to cover the average of 400 cases per day.

At 30 minutes per case (average) 16 cases per officer per day, this would require 25 officers to cover the average of 400 cases per day.

etc.

If it takes longer than my assumed 15 minutes to process a case, then this makes the result for us worse not better.

Five officers processing cases will only guarentee that waiting times increase geometrically. In my estimates even if they increase to 19, at best this will mean that the current waiting time of 20-24 months will stablize.

I for one have heard too many times that NSC is on the cusp of hiring more adjudicators, only to see waiting times increase from about 300 days when I filed in March 2002 to somewhere in excess of 600 days now. Frankly unless I see some evidence of progress I am not even prepare to believe any of this.
 
if this is a crisis and a problem

why don't they get a serious help. Like deploying(training) national guards or something! They must have some plan worked out since they know that there is steady accumulation and massive outpouring of applications daily.
just my thougths....
 
If You Look At This From Their Prespective Ot is Not A Crisis

If you look at it from their view this is not a crisis. With AC21 once you are in i-485 provided you are working in the field specified on your labor certification, you can stay for-ever (annual AP and EAD). They would argue that if you want to work in a different field (or job) then you are not in conformance with your LC and are ineligible for GC.

You and I both know that being in i-485 limbo land is painful, I am not sure BCIS see's it as much more than an inconvenience and that would be their view a small price to pay for living in the US.

Before I get flamed again, I know that from our point of view this is bogus.

If you want the situation to change, then organize. Volunteer for the ISN, write your congressman or senator etc. Otherwise waiting times will elongate and you will have to spend the next couple of years here in pergatory with me.
 
Re: If You Look At This From Their Prespective Ot is Not A Crisis

Originally posted by paulclarke1
If you look at it from their view this is not a crisis. With AC21 once you are in i-485 provided you are working in the field specified on your labor certification, you can stay for-ever (annual AP and EAD). They would argue that if you want to work in a different field (or job) then you are not in conformance with your LC and are ineligible for GC.

You and I both know that being in i-485 limbo land is painful, I am not sure BCIS see's it as much more than an inconvenience and that would be their view a small price to pay for living in the US.

Before I get flamed again, I know that from our point of view this is bogus.

If you want the situation to change, then organize. Volunteer for the ISN, write your congressman or senator etc. Otherwise waiting times will elongate and you will have to spend the next couple of years here in pergatory with me.
Click to expand...

I believe its "purgatory"...:D Just being a wise guy. After over 26 mos with pending I485... I have realized that its pointless to try and figure out what these guys are doing... Too stressful!!
have a beer and relax. Enjoy Tiger's frustrating rounds at the PGA championship.... Any other Tiger bashers around??? tHis is my TGIF contibution, BTW
 
You said it dfagen. Guys, have a couple of beers, and relax.

I am "sort of a Tiger " fan . i.e I enjoy watching him being in contention, but would really like to see him loose.

Ben Joker Curtis was +10 today. Man, that was really funny.

However, I am big advocate of pestering the senators / congressmen. Today for the first time I sent out a bunch of emails, and I am going to keep on doing it.
 
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