June bulletin and SARAS

S

swas

Banned
Now that June bulleing is out we need everybodies feed specially SARAS feedback. SARAS in the past gave us very good analysis and I will wait for his feedback.

Personally the news is good and bad. Bad in the sense EB3 is still stuck in April 2001. Good news is that worldwide is I believe July 2001 which is still good in the sense it crossed April'01.

Please let us know what you think?



Swas
PD April 2002
 
yeh, I'd like to hear from SARAS and UN.

Personally, seems like a good thing atleast next fiscal ye (Oct' 06) kicks in. If worldwide can move, that means not many labors been coming in from BECs, so USCIS moved it as anticpated approvals for 245i were less. Same could happen for India and it may move. It could also be possible that some gurus may think what the hell I'm talking :) Wont disagree.
 
unitednations said:
I'm actually surprised. Most of the EB3 worldwide was an issue for April 30, 2001. If they were going to move it past May 1, it should have moved really much further.

India, it shouldn't hav significant movement until eb3 worldwide becomes current.
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Unitednations, I see following update in June visa bulletin. Is this related to 245(i) ? What is the impact of this on EB3 as a whole or EB3 India ? Can you please throw some light ?

E. THE EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE “OTHER WORKER” CATEGORY BECOMES “UNAVAILABLE’ FOR JUNE

Continued heavy demand for numbers (particularly for adjustment of status cases at USCIS offices) will result in the 5,000 annual numerical limit being reached during the month of May. Therefore, it has been necessary to make the Employment Third preference “Other Worker” category “unavailable” for June, and it will remain so for the remainder of the fiscal year.
 
Good and bad ...

Guys and Gals,

To me this bulletin is very positive for EB3s. The best thing is that worldwide EB3 has moved to July 01. Most analysis (inlcuding UNs) have been based on the fact the worldwide EB3s will be stalled because of the increased demand for 245is. Since World wide has moved two months to July 01 (well past the April 01 hurdle) I believe the USCIS is not seeing to many 245i cases at the present time.

As for India EB3 the ONLY reason I believe it is moving a month at a time is because the demand for EB3 from India has always been on the high side and they are being tentative. If the next few bulletins move as the last one then World Wide should keep moving and India may move a month or two.

I have always mantained that none of us (UN, myself and others) really know exactly what is going on in DOS and USCIS. This bulletin has punched several holes in most theories of EB3 for WorldWide and China stalling in April or May 01. This is not to say that the next few bulletins will do the same. All this proves is that its almost futile to speculate. I am hoping that the trend set by this bulletin continues till the Sept bulletin.

My fear is that the process wil actually stall when 245is do flood the system. No one knows when this may happen. Lets pray it doesn't happen anytime soon.

My personal advise to everyone is to stay positive and hope that EB3 for world wide keeps moving. India will also move if worldwide moves.

regards,

saras
 
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Saras!!

Saras:

Nice to hear from you!! I know you have been focussed more on EB3 category, but I wanted to ask about your thoughts for EB2 for India--there was no progress in June bulletin, whereas in past few months this had been jumping by 6 months. My concern is that, this may mean that there will be no progress in EB2 till new visa numbers become available in October. Is that a fair assumption or is there a fair chance of seeing movement before then?
 
Not sure ...

ab kya karun said:
Saras:

Nice to hear from you!! I know you have been focussed more on EB3 category, but I wanted to ask about your thoughts for EB2 for India--there was no progress in June bulletin, whereas in past few months this had been jumping by 6 months. My concern is that, this may mean that there will be no progress in EB2 till new visa numbers become available in October. Is that a fair assumption or is there a fair chance of seeing movement before then?
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ab kya karun,

I am not sure whats going on with EB2 right now. My speculation was that EB2 would slow down in the coming months and my logic was that a lot of EB2 labors/140s were filed and approved from 03 onwards. If my speculation is correct then Eb2 might not progress much till Oct 06. It may not stall but the movement may be a month or two at a time. This is my own speculation and I have no data or proof to back it up. So far my speculations have been spot on but no one can say for sure what will happen in the next few months. The next few bulletins will seal all our fates.

regards,

saras
 
I just wish that USCIS will not again retrogress dates for EB3(Any countries). They will keep going forward. It was really nightmare when last year USCIS changed date from June1, 2002 to all the way January 1, 1998 for India EB3.

Eb3 India PD. Septemeber 2002.
 
Lets hope so ...

atllab said:
I just wish that USCIS will not again retrogress dates for EB3(Any countries). They will keep going forward. It was really nightmare when last year USCIS changed date from June1, 2002 to all the way January 1, 1998 for India EB3.

Eb3 India PD. Septemeber 2002.
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atllab,

There is no telling what they might do. All we can do is hope that the next few bulletins move forward like June.

regards,

saras
 
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saras,

I am not sure how USCIS calculate visa numbers. For EB1 every month it is increased by six month. I understand for EB2 and EB3 there is a challenge in prediction for demand as labor is not in sink with USCIS. But for EB1 in which PD depends on filed I140 how they were not able to calculate the visa demand to give a correct PD from beginning. I strongly feel visa bulletin is only guided by approved EB visa in last months not on future demands.
 
Maybe true ..

OhNoo said:
saras,

I am not sure how USCIS calculate visa numbers. For EB1 every month it is increased by six month. I understand for EB2 and EB3 there is a challenge in prediction for demand as labor is not in sink with USCIS. But for EB1 in which PD depends on filed I140 how they were not able to calculate the visa demand to give a correct PD from beginning. I strongly feel visa bulletin is only guided by approved EB visa in last months not on future demands.
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OhNoo,

You may be right but there haven't been to many EB3 approvals of late. Most 2001 and earlier EB3 cases have been approved already. Why then would EB3 dates move so slowly. It has to be based future demand. Also how would you explain the sudden pull back of dates to 1998 in Oct 05? That was based entirely on projected future demand. If 245is were indeed flooding the system then the USCIS would have seen a lot of demand for visas and would never move the dates past April 01. This has not happened so I believe that they are basing visa movements on projected demand rather than actual demand. That is my thinking. I may be wrong though :)

regards,

saras
 
your view is more simplistic whereas my view is a little more sinister. I believe its all intentional. What would really piss me off is when USCIS would "regret" that it was not able to adjudicate allocated I-485s for a given year. And next year who can stop them from playing the same game.

We will know how many EB3s were adjudicated for this year when USCIS gives its report in the congress.
 
Lots of theories out there ..

hopefull1 said:
your view is more simplistic whereas my view is a little more sinister. I believe its all intentional. What would really piss me off is when USCIS would "regret" that it was not able to adjudicate allocated I-485s for a given year. And next year who can stop them from playing the same game.

We will know how many EB3s were adjudicated for this year when USCIS gives its report in the congress.
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hopefull1,

This whole thing is defenitely planned but the reasons behind it are not being shared with us. We are being kept in the dark. We cannot rule out DOS and USCIS pulling a fast one on all of us. You are right in that we will know more information once USCIS reports to Congress.

regards,

saras
 
saras76 said:
hopefull1,

This whole thing is defenitely planned but the reasons behind it are not being shared with us. We are being kept in the dark. We cannot rule out DOS and USCIS pulling a fast one on all of us. You are right in that we will know more information once USCIS reports to Congress.

regards,

saras
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hi Saras;

Hopefully your PD will be current on July unless the CIS pulls a fast one on us again. :confused:

Back to the business i hand. All this crap about name check and retrogression are only one more excuse for giving the illegals GC's as fast as they approve this famous GUEST WORKER PROGRAM. :D :D

Those people are going to draw all the resources from the CIS and we will not see any application approved for decades. They know, we are not going anywhere, we will keep paying taxes, not being able to change jobs, etc. :mad:
 
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