January 2018 Visa Bulletin

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#41
I was actually referring to AS, that went from 487 to 1306, more than doubling the amount. But it is all just my ramblings - I agree both with you and with Susie that looking at the overall trend doesn't tell us all that much. But what else can one do except drive oneself mad with projections when trying to make a decision with so many moving parts? I still need to decide whether to go ahead and file the DS, risking my current NI visa, especially since I have to leave the US for a few days, entangling me with the new and improved 90 day rule.

On that note - given all that has changed with the visa processing and progression, do you still believe it is safe (for AS11xxx) to wait until April before filing? I guess then I will know whether there is any sense in going through with any of this, and also move beyond the 90 day period (I'm reentering late December). Thanks!
You probably won't know more by April - and given your number is so high, you are right to wait. You could wait until May or even June to file (for CP). I suggest you do that. Some have even filed as late as early August and been interviewed - so you could wait until the VB is published in July for the final numbers although that is a high risk approach in an oversubscribed year.
 
#42
You probably won't know more by April - and given your number is so high, you are right to wait. You could wait until May or even June to file (for CP). I suggest you do that. Some have even filed as late as early August and been interviewed - so you could wait until the VB is published in July for the final numbers although that is a high risk approach in an oversubscribed year.
Thanks!
 
#43
#44
Are you entering on the same visa that you currently have? If so, 90d rule doesn't apply to you. Literally the same problem popped up few hours ago in AOS thread:
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2018-aos-only.336256/page-74#post-2468599
Interesting, but still I'm a little hesitant. It seems like both the USCIS and the DOS have begun nitpicking every detail, and I'm worried that they might consider reentry as entry, since the wording of the FAM doesn't preclude that.
 
#45
When you say "some regions" you are talking about OC and SA - not the big 3. So OC going from 40 issued visas to 120 (which is about 75 interviews), hardly gives reason to make a statement such as "embassy capacity isn't THAT much of a concern". Just to be clear, that is 75 OC interviews spread over a month, mainly in OC region, but also among all the embassies in the world. So - take a look at AF, EU and AS.
Hello Simon,

My EU # is at 25***.. Do you think that my number might be current in 2 month? I know it is not for sure and you only give predictions based on previous years and of course anything can change at anytime, but what would you think of my EU 25*** number?

I would really appreciate your thoughts :)

Thanks,
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#46
Hello Simon,

My EU # is at 25***.. Do you think that my number might be current in 2 month? I know it is not for sure and you only give predictions based on previous years and of course anything can change at anytime, but what would you think of my EU 25*** number?

I would really appreciate your thoughts :)

Thanks,
This was written a couple of months ago, but the illustration is proving to be accurate and helps you to understand.

http://britsimonsays.com/vb-progress-explained-again/
 
#47
Hello Simon,

My EU # is at 25***.. Do you think that my number might be current in 2 month? I know it is not for sure and you only give predictions based on previous years and of course anything can change at anytime, but what would you think of my EU 25*** number?

I would really appreciate your thoughts :)

Thanks,

According tho Britsimon Blog this is the info you are looking for.

So – If I had to predict EU monthly increases, I would expect the VB to increase by about 2500 for January, 2500 for February, and 2500 for March and April. That is VERY rough guess – it could be more or less. However, if that is what happens, that means that we would be at about 16000 for April interviews, and then the lower density will kick in. From that pointy onwards we will see monthly increases of around 5000 per month. Theoretically that pace could get to CN41000 by September, although the question then becomes, “how big is the bucket”. In my earlier post I suggested EU CNs under 37XXX were safe – and if you follow my logic we could reach that number by August.


This info has been useful to me & I'm sure it will be for other Europeans in the same situations
Thanks Britsimon!
 
#49
According tho Britsimon Blog this is the info you are looking for.

So – If I had to predict EU monthly increases, I would expect the VB to increase by about 2500 for January, 2500 for February, and 2500 for March and April. That is VERY rough guess – it could be more or less. However, if that is what happens, that means that we would be at about 16000 for April interviews, and then the lower density will kick in. From that pointy onwards we will see monthly increases of around 5000 per month. Theoretically that pace could get to CN41000 by September, although the question then becomes, “how big is the bucket”. In my earlier post I suggested EU CNs under 37XXX were safe – and if you follow my logic we could reach that number by August.


This info has been useful to me & I'm sure it will be for other Europeans in the same situations
Thanks Britsimon!
Thank you very much.

So if this will go as we all hoping to be, then my number is 25*** and might be Current in APRIL, MAY or August, means that I need to start preparing all my documents in FEB to be safe? I only got 2 NL from KCC because I sent DS260 but never started on my AOS Package

Thanks in advance
 
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