Interesting Observation

R

RajeshJ

Registered Users (C)
Hello,

I created some stats for the 110 series (see attached file) -


You will notice that majority of the approvals (44 out of 58) have been between EAC #s between 50000 - 51999 while majority of the transfers (52 out of 68) have been between 52000 - 54999. In fact 50000 - 51999 series has approximately 50% of the total # of cases.

It would almost seems as if there are two officers working on this series - one is well trained while the other one is not. Or could it be that these two series have some significance (1st one is employment based while the 2nd one is not) ? Can someone do a similar analysis for another series and verify the pattern?
 
dengdeng, if what you are speculating is correct, then we can easily predict which series has high probability of transfers...In fact you will notice that same was not true for RFE (it was very evenly distributed).
 
Can someone post the latest scan results of a couple of Jan series? I will run through a similar analysis.
 
RajeshJ, you should incorporate everybody's results into a big xls. Plus I have change the code so it will only scan 485 cases, you don't need to scan non-485 cases everytime. That can be easily done.
 
dengdeng,

I did the same thing with my XLS...it just scans for updates. Can you post the latest scanned results of a couple of Jan dates.

I will just paste and analyze the stats to see if only certain ranges are more vulnerable to transfers.
 
Sorry, I don't scan Jan cases, that will hurt my feelings even more. I'm Dec case. Sorry, but you can ask others to help.
 
Originally posted by vijayrc
Here's the list of EAC-02-105 Series..that I scan and keep track of.
hope this helps.
Click to expand...

vijay, looks like EAC #s between 51500 and 52499 had the highest number of transfers (28 out of 43)
 
Re: 111 & 112

Originally posted by rickz
here
Click to expand...

Rick, very few Feb cases have been touched therefore, it would be difficult to make any prediction for 112. However, bulk of xfers have happened in 53500-53999 (10 out of 26), rest are spread across.

While for 111, the transfers are concentrated across few ranges -
21 - 50000 and 50499
12 - 51000 and 51499
13 - 53000 and 53499
15 - 54000 and 54499

This series overall has a lot of transfers compared to approvals 95 and 51 respectively.
 
Another observation based on the samples analyzed so far slightly less than 20% cases have been transferred. Assuming BCIS has some kind of cut-off, which is very likely to be in 20-25% range, I would think that majority of transfers in 105, 110 & 111 have already taken place. Hopefully, we should now see more approvals in this series.
 
Originally posted by vijayrc
Here's the list of EAC-02-105 Series..that I scan and keep track of.
hope this helps.
Click to expand...

Vijay, I was surprised to note that there were only 209 I-485 cases. Even the last EAC was 52023. Did you scan the entire 105 series?
 
Rajesh,
The last No in 105 Series of 485 Application is EAC0210553095
After each scan I sort it by 'Case Status' and hence you see 52023 as the last in series..!
 
Originally posted by vijayrc
Rajesh,
The last No in 105 Series of 485 Application is EAC0210553095
After each scan I sort it by 'Case Status' and hence you see 52023 as the last in series..!
Click to expand...

Got it...thanks.
 
RajeshJ

Thank for the analysis!

Is it possible to correlate the FP date with the approval/RFE/transfer date? Some poeple think they now go by FP date, not even by Notice Date.

Although, I understand that trying to predict BCIS is like trying to predict weather on Mars. :)
 
rickz, I don't believe there is any correlation between FP date and approval/RFE/transfer. What I believe is that BCIS picks up cases on a month to month basis. Once they start processing a month, each series is assigned to a group of officers. You will notice that most days in Jan have around 40% cases touched.

Various factors - efficiency of the groups, vacation schedule, reassignment, complexity of cases, RFEs, transfers result in backlogs and delays.
 
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