Interesting note in May Visa Bulletin

India EB2 situation

unitednations..just a question for you, since you seem to be pretty knowledgeable about immi matters. I know you cannot predict stuff...however just out of curiosity, do you have any guess regarding when India EB2 might advance about 2 years. My PD is March/05. Now things are stuck Jan/03. I am just trying to take stock of situation and weigh my options. Thanks, Deb
 
Very depressing indeed. I guess law change is the only viable option at this time. Thanks for your take on the matter.
 
any idea????

UN and others,

Would appreciate any prediction for my case as follows:

CA/RIR/EB3 (row)
Labor PD: Sep 17, 2004
Labor Approved: June 21, 2006
I-140 FD: Aug 26, 2006
I-140 Approved: Oct 25, 2006
I-485: ?????

Thanks all in advance.
Rahi khan




unitednations said:
Without law change; go to sleep and set your alarm clock for three years.

Everything hinges on eb3 row. As long as ROW people keep coming into the system and file 140's (this is very easy to do since in chicago procesing center for perm approves cases in about one week then they will constantly get in line ahead of india, etc.)

In last two years there has been 200,000 perm filings; assume each perm will take up two greencards then you get to see the problem. If row people keep filing perms and get into the system then india will only be eligible for 2,800 greencards per category for the forseeable future.
Click to expand...
 
Rahi khan said:
UN and others,

Would appreciate any prediction for my case as follows:

CA/RIR/EB3 (row)
Labor PD: Sep 17, 2004
Labor Approved: June 21, 2006
I-140 FD: Aug 26, 2006
I-140 Approved: Oct 25, 2006
I-485: ?????
Click to expand...
Of course, any prediction is a serious guesstimate. Nobody would have predicted the one year sudden forward movement for EB3 ROW, without a change in the regulations.

Having said that, I expect (guess) that EB3 ROW will be slow and steady from now on, alternating between a month of staying still and moving one or two months at a time. There probably won't be any big one-shot movements again; the recent big movement was because they realized they were artificially holding back the dates due to their speculations about the "demand" that would be fueled by cases coming out of the backlog centers. Now that the backlog centers are close to being emptied and that "demand" is not materializing, the dates will be more realistic from now on.

So my prediction is for your case to become current in the last quarter of 2008 (first quarter of FY2009).
 
May be more. You did not mention EB-3 -> EB-2 priority date porting. This would drag EB-2 down to EB-3 dates.


unitednations said:
Without law change; go to sleep and set your alarm clock for three years.

Everything hinges on eb3 row. As long as ROW people keep coming into the system and file 140's (this is very easy to do since in chicago procesing center for perm approves cases in about one week then they will constantly get in line ahead of india, etc.)

In last two years there has been 200,000 perm filings; assume each perm will take up two greencards then you get to see the problem. If row people keep filing perms and get into the system then india will only be eligible for 2,800 greencards per category for the forseeable future.
Click to expand...
 
Jackolantern said:
Of course, any prediction is a serious guesstimate. Nobody would have predicted the one year sudden forward movement for EB3 ROW, without a change in the regulations.

Having said that, I expect (guess) that EB3 ROW will be slow and steady from now on, alternating between a month of staying still and moving one or two months at a time. There probably won't be any big one-shot movements again; the recent big movement was because they realized they were artificially holding back the dates due to their speculations about the "demand" that would be fueled by cases coming out of the backlog centers. Now that the backlog centers are close to being emptied and that "demand" is not materializing, the dates will be more realistic from now on.

So my prediction is for your case to become current in the last quarter of 2008 (first quarter of FY2009).
Click to expand...


If they cancel LC substitution on 04/26/2007, they may continue to move PD for EB3 for ROW with rather fast pace. They can also do big jump in September bulletin duew to vertical spill over from EB2.
 
sfmars said:
If they cancel LC substitution on 04/26/2007, they may continue to move PD for EB3 for ROW with rather fast pace. They can also do big jump in September bulletin duew to vertical spill over from EB2.
Click to expand...
Yes, if they ban labor substitution or make other changes like exempting dependents from the quota, then of course the dates should move faster. But my guesstimate was based on them making no changes.

There may be a jump in September or the last quarter of FY2007, but I definitely don't expect it to be 6 months or more, after having already made this one-year jump. This one-year jump will cause several I-485s to come rushing in, so I expect them to be cautious about moving the dates again in FY2007.
 
Can one of you experts make any predictions on my case please?

PD - 10/01/2003
Case Type - EB2
Labor Approved - 12/2006
I140 Approved - 01/2007
I485 - Waiting to apply with my fingers crossed ...:(
 
Just don't keep the fingers crossed for too long...

...'cos they may stick together erasing your fingerprints...causing problem during the fingerprinting stage... :)

DBEC_Labor_Pain said:
Can one of you experts make any predictions on my case please?

PD - 10/01/2003
Case Type - EB2
Labor Approved - 12/2006
I140 Approved - 01/2007
I485 - Waiting to apply with my fingers crossed ...:(
Click to expand...
 
I spoke to a leading attorney about changing jobs after I140 approval and in the course of the conversation he mentioned that there will substantial movement in EB2 India in the next 2 bulletins. I dont know excatly what substantial means..
Hopefully its in months...
 
Predictions ...

DBEC_Labor_Pain said:
Can one of you experts make any predictions on my case please?

PD - 10/01/2003
Case Type - EB2
Labor Approved - 12/2006
I140 Approved - 01/2007
I485 - Waiting to apply with my fingers crossed ...:(
Click to expand...

DBEC_Labor_Pain,

My friend, predictions are of no use and those making them are either taking a shot in the dark or are just trying to sound "informed". I have been guilty of this myself. So my advice would be to follow the visa bulletins each month and go by that.

Last month the head of the agency that controls visas stated that there will be "even worse retrogression" in the summer months because of continued "HIGH" demand and that there will be no movement. After this grand annoucement, EB3 ROW jumps by a year and this same person states that demand is NOT high and and that movement can be expected in the summer months and in the last quarter of this fiscal year (before OCt '07). (I got this information from Murhtys website).

When the head of the agency incharge of visas keeps "flip flopping" how can anyone on this forum predict anything accurately. This whole retrogression is being implemented on projections and guesswork. Predictions are useless in such situations.

The one thing that can be stated is that without legislation EB3 India with PD past '02 will take a very long time. No one can say exactly how long.

cheers,

saras
 
Jackolantern said:
Of course, any prediction is a serious guesstimate. Nobody would have predicted the one year sudden forward movement for EB3 ROW, without a change in the regulations.

Having said that, I expect (guess) that EB3 ROW will be slow and steady from now on, alternating between a month of staying still and moving one or two months at a time. There probably won't be any big one-shot movements again; the recent big movement was because they realized they were artificially holding back the dates due to their speculations about the "demand" that would be fueled by cases coming out of the backlog centers. Now that the backlog centers are close to being emptied and that "demand" is not materializing, the dates will be more realistic from now on.

So my prediction is for your case to become current in the last quarter of 2008 (first quarter of FY2009).
Click to expand...


I have to agree with Saras76.. This prediction contradicts with the note in May's bulletin.
 
DBEC_Labor_Pain said:
Can one of you experts make any predictions on my case please?

PD - 10/01/2003
Case Type - EB2
Labor Approved - 12/2006
I140 Approved - 01/2007
I485 - Waiting to apply with my fingers crossed ...:(
Click to expand...
i deleted my comment....because i was not paying attention....and i did not notice that your's is a EB2 case....and i dont know much about that...sorry
 
Make sense...

saras76 said:
DBEC_Labor_Pain,

My friend, predictions are of no use and those making them are either taking a shot in the dark or are just trying to sound "informed". I have been guilty of this myself. So my advice would be to follow the visa bulletins each month and go by that.

Last month the head of the agency that controls visas stated that there will be "even worse retrogression" in the summer months because of continued "HIGH" demand and that there will be no movement. After this grand annoucement, EB3 ROW jumps by a year and this same person states that demand is NOT high and and that movement can be expected in the summer months and in the last quarter of this fiscal year (before OCt '07). (I got this information from Murhtys website).

When the head of the agency incharge of visas keeps "flip flopping" how can anyone on this forum predict anything accurately. This whole retrogression is being implemented on projections and guesswork. Predictions are useless in such situations.

The one thing that can be stated is that without legislation EB3 India with PD past '02 will take a very long time. No one can say exactly how long.

cheers,

saras
Click to expand...


Saras - Thanks for your insight. I read Murthy.Com today and it seems that there may be some movement for EB categories for India in summer this year. Let us see.
 
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