Interesting Article on EB3 Retrogress & Priority Dates

sree1965

Registered Users (C)
I posted before at Murthy Forum that I would be writing an article about HOW VISA NUMBERS WOULD MOVE DURING RETROGRESSION. Of course this only concerns people that were affected by the retrogression in the PIC (Philippines, India and China) countries.

As we all know visas are numerically limited. All the countries in the world have a PER-COUNTRY CAP for each visa categories. Many years before the EB3 as stated by the Department of State has remained current or “C” in the VISA BULLETIN but due to the BACKLOG REDUCTION effort of the USCIS more visas are being consumed than there are available. It means that the Department of State has PREDICTED that there would be more visas that would be consumed than there are available so they set PRIORITY DATES to slow down the issuance of visas. It works on a FIFO basis (FIRST IN-FIRST OUT) for all consular applications and adjustment of status. I ASSUME YOU ALL KNOW WHEN ARE YOUR PRIORITY DATES. FOR NURSES IT IS THE TIME WHEN YOU RECEIVE THE NOTICE OF RECEIPT OF YOUR I-140 FROM THE USCIS.

Another thing… it has nothing to do with the USCIS, your petition is still going even there is retrogression as long as it was been filed before January 1, 2005. The only thing that would happen is that it would FREEZE your consular or adjustment of status until well of course your PRIORITY DATES ARE CURRENT!

Ok this is the stuff you’ve been waiting for. HOW DO VISA NUMBERS MOVE?

Well as I mentioned earlier there is a per country cap visa limit for all countries. According to the LAW the consumption of VISAS are done in a QUARTERLY BASIS. The U.S. Government FISCAL YEAR starts at October 1 through September 30. So the Fiscal Year 2005 would start at October 1, 2004 and would end at September 30, 2005.
If you read the VISA BULLETIN at the travel.state.gov website there is a paragraph written below that the Department of State has PREDICTED it is necessary to impose a CUT-OFF DATE to slow down the processing during the second quarter (January 1, 2005- March 31, 2005).

I hope you are all following on this. Well hmmm that is why the AILA (American Immigration Lawyers Association) claimed that they do not expect visa numbers to move until APRIL! Because April 1 would be the start of the 3rd Quarter of the FISCAL YEAR. According to the law, the Dept. of State can now use additional VISA NUMBERS. DEFINITELY THE VISA NUMBERS WOULD MOVE. Yehey!!!

My predictions during the 3rd QUARTER the PRIORITY DATES would be somewhere in around November 2003 or January 2004. The Department of State will be processing other cases that were approved by the USCIS(cases that were filed before January 1, 2005). First in-first out. The Dept. of State will be processing other cases without taking new cases in.

Here is really the most glorious part. LAST QUARTER OF THE FISCAL YEAR. (JULY 1, 2005 – SEPTEMBER 31, 2005 .)

ACCORDING TO THE LAW --- ALL UNUSED VISAS FROM ALL OTHER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD WILL BE MADE AVIALABLE TO THE Philippines, India and China and other countries that has visa cap.

MY PREDICTION IS THAT PRIORITY DATES WILL BE CURRENT DURING THE LAST QUARTER FOR THE EB3 CATEGORY.

Before the retrogression took place there has been so much discussions and opinions that we do not know what to believe. I am sure that a lot of articles you read claimed that you have to wait for 2 to 3 years (if you have a priority date on or around 12-30-2004) before visa numbers start to move because as what has the Department of State has claimed that there are more visa cases that were filed EARLIER THAN JANUARY 2002.

Try to analyze this… all the cases the National Visa Center are processing came from USCIS. All these cases are either I-140 (consular processing) or I-485 (adjustment of status). Do you think that EVERYDAY one or more persons would go to the USCIS and file his/her application? Do you think that EVERYDAY the USCIS would approve one or more application and then forward it to the NVC? If you think they are doing that then you have to wait for 3 years.

But this is not how VISA NUMBERS are processed. It is not everyday that cases are filed. Although some cases are filed by BATCH. But the above paragraph does not support the mechanisms on how cases are processed. Besides a nurse that has filed his application before, I am sure that he/she got his green card already if that was an I-140 application. It does not take more than two years for the nurse to wait in his/her home country just to fly to the U.S. with an I-140 filed for consular processing.


What the Department of State did is that they choose a priority date which is January 1, 2002, a date far enough so it would freeze processing entirely for the 1st and 2nd quarter (Oct.1, 2004 to March 31, 2005) so the Department of State would have time to process visas without taking new ones. On April 1, 2005 to June 30, 2005 (3rd quarter) the Department of State can open up and distribute visas again until the per country cap is met again. The good thing is that ACCORDING TO THE LAW, on the fourth quarter (July 1, 2005 – September 30 2005) THE REST OF THE WORLD’S UNUSED VISAS WILL BE GIVEN TO THE PHILIPPINES, INDIA AND CHINA. The EB3 category will be CURRENT AGAIN!

Although it will be ON and OFF until the U.S. Congress passes new legislations but IT WILL BE ONLY 5 TO 7 MONTHS DELAYS AND NOT 3 TO 5 YEARS. Do not believe all what you read in newspapers and articles. They are just exaggerating and scaring the nurses.

THIS ARTICLE IS BASED ON ACTUAL RESEARCH OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT and other LAWS. IT TOOK ME 14 DAYS TO FINISH THIS. FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS E-MAIL ME AT himdale@yahoo.com

I am not a lawyer and definitely not a nurse. Although I love nurses. hehe! The above article is not a legal advise and should not be used as one. The article is only an opinion of the author. Although I think I am closely right to reality. You should contact your immigration lawyer if you need advise or you need to make a decision on your case.

From Murthy Website.....
 
Kahe aasha jaga rahe ho bhaiya...badi mushkil se to dil ko manaye the ki GC nahin aayega is saal...ab phir se tum log gand mein illi kar rahe ho...hope yeh article sahi ho

shakti
 
.. what about 55000 backloged LC cases being processed currently?. These all LCs were filed before 1JAN2002 and have to have processed by MARCH 2005 as per DOL instructions.

These cases will have large impact not only on EB3 but also on EB2. There is no stats available on how many of them are from retro affected countries but going by histroy, they must be in good percentage.

If congress clears the bill for using 'lapsed' visa numbers then we will be in good shape.

BTW .where is this article at Murthy's site?
 
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sree1965 said:
IWhat the Department of State did is that they choose a priority date which is January 1, 2002, a date far enough so it would freeze processing entirely for the 1st and 2nd quarter (Oct.1, 2004 to March 31, 2005) so the Department of State would have time to process visas without taking new ones. On April 1, 2005 to June 30, 2005 (3rd quarter) the Department of State can open up and distribute visas again until the per country cap is met again. The good thing is that ACCORDING TO THE LAW, on the fourth quarter (July 1, 2005 – September 30 2005) THE REST OF THE WORLD’S UNUSED VISAS WILL BE GIVEN TO THE PHILIPPINES, INDIA AND CHINA. The EB3 category will be CURRENT AGAIN!

I quibble with this. First, they've pretty much frozen a lot of EB3 filings for Indian/Chinese/Filipinos, but not for the rest of the world. Second, according to the last capitalized sentence is incorrect. If that was strictly true, then the EB3 category for the rest of the world would switch to "U". I don't ever recall seeing a U for any category in EB.

My own thought is that there will be some forward movement of EB3 priority dates for I/C/P at the start of each fiscal quarter (April and July 1st) and you might see them all go current in September. Then again, maybe not.

The reason why it might not change is that retrogression has occured because 27% of all EB3 numbers were used up in the 1Q of FY2005, not because a per-country limit was hit.
 
sree1965 said:
Although it will be ON and OFF until the U.S. Congress passes new legislations but IT WILL BE ONLY 5 TO 7 MONTHS DELAYS ...
this is what i think as well..it is only pushing gc away for few months..good analysis
 
Sirji..can you please tell me where you got this info...any links/docs that you can point to ?

GCJaisaKoiNahi said:
.. what about 55000 backloged LC cases being processed currently?. These all LCs were filed before 1JAN2002 and have to have processed by MARCH 2005 as per DOL instructions.
 
I think it is a good analysis....

Couple of things you dint addressed. Currently 450K labor applcation were pending with various centers, not sure how many of them from which country. DOL is commited to complete this application by 2006. Not sure how soon. If the 450 application were processed by 2006, then the number of years to adjust these cases irrespective of cat/country/..... will be
450 k Pending application/140 Visa number's per year = 3.21 years. So it will take 3.21 years to accomodate all these pending applications.

This thing will have huge impact on PD, might not be this year but some where in between......

. The DOL backlog reduction efforts will effect the PD, however they dont have the capacity to complete the processing over night.
. If the people whose labor is pending long time, can take advantage of PERM which is avilable now. PD will also depends how many of them take advanatge of this option.


some more addition to the analysis
 
dbwr said:
I think it is a good analysis....
Couple of things you dint addressed. Currently 450K labor applcation were pending with various centers,
from where you got this #..these are total # of all types of application i guess ( like EAD/AP/H1/F1/J1 )
 
Rockville.
These are not frm the uscis... The 450k were the current labor applications pending at various DOL. I will search the docs, I read this number from one of the DOL presentation to OMB for backlog reduction process funding.


Not sure where i kept it , but i will keep you psted on this thread.

Even the backlog reduction in some centers (as per murthy bulletin), they are saying now they will take california, chicago etc.... those numbers at the time time when i calculated was some thing like 60k which are in processing right now. And in NJ there were some tons of application pending since 01. One of my labor application is also pending in this nj region. The current one is of my wife's one, i am derivative...in that matter. So i am just keeping track of labor also.
 
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