I-485 VSC processing time predictions for Year 2004

S

sen_gc

Registered Users (C)
Here are my predictions for i-485 at Vermont Service Center for year 2004 (this calculation is not a pessimistic view, but its solely based on last year trend and number of pending cases:

As of Jan 1 2004: Processing Jan 31st 2002 Cases.
As of Jan 15 2004: Still Processing Jan 31st 2002 Cases.
As of Feb 1 2004: Processing Feb 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Feb 15 2004: Still Processing Feb 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Mar 1 2004: Still Processing Feb 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Mar 15 2004: Processing Feb 28th 2002 Cases.
As of April 1 2004: Still Processing Feb 29th 2002 Cases.
As of April 15 2004: Still Processing Feb 29th 2002 Cases.
As of May 1 2004: Processing Mar 15th 2002 Cases.
As of May 15 2004: Still Processing Mar 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Jun 1 2004: Still Processing Mar 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Jun 15 2004: Still Processing Mar 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Jul 1 2004: Processing Mar 31st 2002 Cases.
As of Jul 15 2004: Still Processing Mar 31st 2002 Cases.
As of Aug 1 2004: Still Processing Mar 31st 2002 Cases.
As of Aug 15 2004: Still Processing Mar 31st 2002 Cases.
As of Sep 1 2004: Processing Apr 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Sep 15 2004: Still Processing Apr 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Oct 1 2004: Still Processing Apr 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Oct 15 2004: Still Processing Apr 15th 2002 Cases.
As of Nov 1 2004: Processing Apr 30th 2002 Cases.
As of Nov 15 2004: Still Processing Apr 30th 2002 Cases.
As of Dec 1 2004: Still Processing Apr 30th 2002 Cases.
As of Dec 15 2004: Still Processing Apr 30th 2002 Cases.
As of Jan 1 2005: Processing May 15th 2002 Cases.

I think they might process only 3 to 4 months of cases in whole of 2004.

:confused: :mad: :rolleyes: :p
 
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scans from Jan -June data

Did you ever look at the scan data for January to June 2002.

Almost 65% of the cases have been approved for some months. It is there in PDF format.....stblc a thread on VSC tracker will give you that.

When it gets to September 2002 then the problem starts due to concurrent filing!!!!
 
Hopefully ur estimates are wrong because April 31st will never come and VSC will get confused.
 
And how about 2001,

November and December 2001 have 30%
pending cases, 30% transfers and only 30% approved.
I did randomly scan for several days there.

and also some October 2001...
 
gambling

when you goto a casino and start gambling , you know that your chances of winning are less than 10%. With BCIS, i would say that your chances of making a correct guess are less than 5%. Have you not seen a number of July'02 approvals in this week (and also a August'02 approval today) :mad:
 
Hopefully ur estimates are wrong because April 30st will never come and VSC will get confused.
 
VSC took 2 years to process just 10 months of Cases

Back in Feb 2002, VSC was processing April 1st 2001 cases and now in Jan 2004 they are processing Jan 31st 2002 cases,

i.e. VSC took almost 2 years to process 10 months,

Now the processing time is 24 months at VSC, but before 2 years was just around 10 months.

So after one year from now processing time will certainly increase to 30 months. One or two of Sep 2002 cases might get approved due to expiring FP, but as per scan there are still 30% Dec 2001, 35% Jan 2002, 50% Feb 2002, 65% March 2002 cases .......
 
And, just hope whey say they are processing Jan 15, 2002 case, they have cleared up all 2001 cases. Otherwise, what is the point to see the number moving for all left 2001 cases.
 
Differ

I would differ on the assessment. You cannot use any trending for any of the SC processing. They approved few August/Sept 2002 in Dec, 2003. Yet few of the Dec. 2001 is still pending. There were concurrent application process issue, reduced applications, bug fix issue, call center change issue etc. Add all this variables and your prediction model becomes 'non stationary' and not a 'good fit' or 'useful'. Then again, to check your expectations your analysis can be used.
 
Your assessment is way too optimistic...it seems with bush's immigration reform vsc will get increased workload...as a result they will slow down...i expect the processing date to stand at 3/31/02 by the end of 2004.
 
Bottomline is you cannot predict the processing time for Year 2004. It may be very fast. It may extremely slow.
 
Originally posted by Rustam
Bottomline is you cannot predict the processing time for Year 2004. It may be very fast. It may extremely slow.
Click to expand...

And my gut feeling is that the latter is far more likely. I'll be glad if proven wrong though.
 
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