I-485 Application numbers ESTIMATE EXAGGERATED??

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Were I-485 Application numbers ESTIMATE EXAGGERATED??

Predictions and estimates of I-485 applications that were going to be received by USCIS were (hopefully) exaggerated. Most gurus had 'predicted' that USCIS could be flooded with as many as 750,000 employment based I-485 applications between July 2 and August 17, 2007.

I am not sure on what basis the 'Immigration Authorities' have given the number as 300,000 I-485 applications received by them to 'New York Times' even if they have excluded the applications received on the last day - August 17, 2007.

My hope is that the USCIS has actually opened the application packets and counted each I-485 application separately instead of just counting the packets that could contain more than one I-485 application.
 
How many were filed in June?

The 300,000 reported by NY Times is only from July 2 to August 17 and I do hope that it is not the number of packets but the number of applications.
I did not find the number of applications received in June. I suspect that this will be much higher than average as well since the priority dates in the June bulletin were moved considerably after about 2 yrs.
I had estimated about 500,000 applications in all between June and August and am looking forward to the June numbers from USCIS to confirm
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vicky006 - Thanks for your Response

vicky006 - Thanks for your Response

The USCIS did come out with the total I-485 applications received in June 2007 and that number (69098) includes family based I-485s also.

I had posted statistics on ImmigrationVoice on August 15, 2007 before the release of the September 2007 VB and the IV core chose to ignore it though the post was simple to understand and decipher.

Here is what I had posted:
_______________________________________

Here are some numbers from Oh Law to look at. These numbers could be used by the experts here to make an estimate till the USCIS will actually come out and make an announcement on the number of I-485 applications received between July 2 and August 17, 2007.

From the Oh Law Web site:

Quote:

08/14/2007: USCIS I-485 Workload Statistics
The following statistics reflect a steady increase in the number of I-485 applications (including family-based and other cases) during the months before the July VB fiasco hit the roof as is shown in the following table:


Month--------------New Receipt--------------Total Pending

June 2007--------------69,098--------------------597,844

May 2007--------------68,265---------------------594,706

April 2007--------------59,266---------------------580,507

March 2007-------------62,020--------------------572,779

February 2007----------45,554---------------------574,783

January 2007-----------52,082---------------------583,682

December 2006---------50,411---------------------588,039

November 2006---------53,016---------------------578,805


07/26/2007: BEC Labor Certification Status as of 07/20/2007

* AILA's teleconference with DOL on 07/24/2007 reflects as follows: [Courtesy of AILA]
o Total balance: 28,300
o RIR=Fewer than 1,000
o TR=More than 27,300
+ Recruitment process has yet to be initiated=2,000
+ Recruitment process underway=More than 25,300

Unquote.

From the above above numbers, it is hard to believe that there are still 200,000 Labor certifications pending with the BECs with Priority Dates (PDs) as per June 2007 VB.

I rest my case and leave the floor to the IV experts, most of whose PDs are probably older that 2000/2001.

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Above is what I had posted and none at the IV had any kind of response to the post.

My only hope is that USCIS has NOT received a large number labor substitution I-140s before July 17, 2007. Because if the USCIS has indeed received a large number of labor substitution I-140s with older PDs, they would still have the leverage to manipulate visa allotments in the coming years.

I always wondered if the same approved labor certification could be used again and again even after one or more GC applicants for the same job with the same labor certification have gotten their Green Cards and moved on with AC21.

Appreciate if matured immigrants under Rajiv Khanna portal (NOT IV guys) could provide their opinions and responses here under this thread.

Thanks - IE

vicky006 said:
The 300,000 reported by NY Times is only from July 2 to August 17 and I do hope that it is not the number of packets but the number of applications.
I did not find the number of applications received in June. I suspect that this will be much higher than average as well since the priority dates in the June bulletin were moved considerably after about 2 yrs.
I had estimated about 500,000 applications in all between June and August and am looking forward to the June numbers from USCIS to confirm
.
Click to expand...
 
In the same article its mentioned that....

"According to official figures, in the three months before July the agency received an average of 54,700 applications a month for all green cards, including employment visas and those based on family ties."

I am not sure whether this 300,000 applications include family based applications and many were urged to apply before 30th July to gain on fees.

Not only 485 applications, even many who are eligible and lazy on citizenship rushed to apply.

USCIS got another excellent excuse to get away of its doings! (Ofcourse one excuse is with name check/security check).
 
I bet that half of the 300K were family based or others (asylum etc.), most of them rushing to apply before they raised the fees. Similarly, recent months have also seen a spike in citizenship applications ... and they have no fiscal year deadlines to meet, they just wanted to apply before the new higher fees took effect (and to get some final peace of mind about their immigration status before any new law might pass that could cause problems).
 
not correct

Jackolantern said:
I bet that half of the 300K were family based or others (asylum etc.), most of them rushing to apply before they raised the fees. Similarly, recent months have also seen a spike in citizenship applications ... and they have no fiscal year deadlines to meet, they just wanted to apply before the new higher fees took effect (and to get some final peace of mind about their immigration status before any new law might pass that could cause problems).
Click to expand...

Its only EB.
 
That's easily about one to two years of retrogression for ROW ....
for other retrogressed countries - don't bother counting the years...it's useless! Hee Hee!
 
I am more worried if they attempted to fix it...given the BEC centers experience...

I only hope either increase in visa numbers or not counting family member visas or at the least recapturing visas from previous years may bring down the queue to years wait from decades wait!
 
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