How are the cutoff dates determined by DOS?

[Dallas03096]

In August 2005, the Ombudsman began hosting a series of meetings between USCIS and DOS. Since September 2005, the DOL also has participated. The meetings were to develop useful communications among these entities regarding visa availability and expected demand. Based on these meetings, DOS was able to better determine visa availability at the beginning of FY06 to reflect actual and expected demand.

Read the rest of the story in the following link:
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/CISOmbudsman_AnnualReport_2006_II-B-Untimely_Processing.pdf

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

In August 2005, the Ombudsman began hosting a series of meetings between USCIS and DOS. Since September 2005, the DOL also has participated. The meetings were to develop useful communications among these entities regarding visa availability and expected demand. Based on these meetings, DOS was able to better determine visa availability at the beginning of FY06 to reflect actual and expected demand.

Read the rest of the story in the following link:
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/CISOmbudsman_AnnualReport_2006_II-B-Untimely_Processing.pdf

Please follow this link, rest of the thread about unused visas is irrevalent now. India cannot get any spillover in any category as long as row eb3 is retrogressed.
http://www.immigrationportal.com/sh...page=6&pp=15&highlight=visa+number+works+Part

 

[saras76]

True ..

Please follow this link, rest of the thread about unused visas is irrevalent now. India cannot get any spillover in any category as long as row eb3 is retrogressed.
http://www.immigrationportal.com/sh...page=6&pp=15&highlight=visa+number+works+Part

indian_gc_ocean,

You are right. However, lets hope the 2,700 visa quota for EB3 India in '06 is used up. As of August it had not been used up. This just indicates that the dates are to far back or that the processing is way to slow. The crazy demand that everyone speculates for India should use up the 2700 visas within the first qtr of a fiscal year. In '06 this has not happened. That is my only concern .. thousands of pending 245i cases should be no reason to keep India dates in April '01. If there are indeed thousands of India EB3s prior to April '01 then the 2700 visa numbers should NOT last a whole year. Something is totally missing here ...

regards,

saras

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

indian_gc_ocean,

You are right. However, lets hope the 2,700 visa quota for EB3 India in '06 is used up. As of August it had not been used up. This just indicates that the dates are to far back or that the processing is way to slow. The crazy demand that everyone speculates for India should use up the 2700 visas within the first qtr of a fiscal year. In '06 this has not happened. That is my only concern .. thousands of pending 245i cases should be no reason to keep India dates in April '01. If there are indeed thousands of India EB3s prior to April '01 then the 2700 visa numbers should NOT last a whole year. Something is totally missing here ...

regards,

saras

saras76,

This is my understanding as why DOS did not make India EB3 unavailable.

1. DOS has a better estimate after India EB3 going unavailable last year, so they decided to go slow through the year. Where as for EB2, this is the first time retrogression is happening after a long time. Its pathetic situation for us as their samples are all real world experimented tried out solutions rather than actual supply/demand estimates.

2. As per India EB2, looks like DOS is trying to stop porting EB3 PDs to EB2. How can they do acheive this ? -- by making EB2 unavailable. There is no one moving into EB3 like this, so they don't want to make it unavailable. Making any category unavailable is the last desperate action for DOS. Chinese are not as smart as Indians in porting EB3 PDs to EB2s that could be the reason why EB2 China stayed at the same place.

Actually, India EB3 may expect some movement next month as India EB1 spill over would go to India EB3(not to EB2). Other than this spill over, I would expect majority of 3000 odd FY 2006 india eb3 visas are already used up when the dates moved from 98 to 2001 in this year.

 

[bigbang2001]

I have not read the link you posted. Why do you say that EB1 will not spillover in to EB2. The usual spillover falls from EB1->Eb2->Eb3.

saras76,
Actually, India EB3 may expect some movement next month as India EB1 spill over would go to India EB3(not to EB2). Other than this spill over, I would expect majority of 3000 odd FY 2006 india eb3 visas are already used up when the dates moved from 98 to 2001 in this year.

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

I have not read the link you posted. Why do you say that EB1 will not spillover in to EB2. The usual spillover falls from EB1->Eb2->Eb3.

Since Eb2 is unavailable, can they give any unused India EB1 to India EB2 at the last minute before october, I don't think they can do that when a category is unavailable. If there are anything remaining in India EB1 and DOS is really serious about not wasting them in FY 2006, then they should give those to India EB3 before october. (Its has nothing to do with link. The link talks about how cut-off dates work.)

 

[bigbang2001]

I don't know how this works but given by the volume of postings on this, it looks it is a fuzzy area.

Talking about spillover, is it carried over in to next year. May be . May be not.
By the way EB-2 unavailable does not mean EB1-> EB2 spillover did not happen for September. There may be many cases in EB-2 queue which were already in line till Jan 2003 and their numbers added up. I am a product BEC hole and know how many in my own company were (and still ) waiting along with me in 2001/ 2002 timeframe.

Since Eb2 is unavailable, can they give any unused India EB1 to India EB2 at the last minute before october, I don't think they can do that when a category is unavailable. If there are anything remaining in India EB1 and DOS is really serious about not wasting them in FY 2006, then they should give those to India EB3 before october. (Its has nothing to do with link. The link talks about how cut-off dates work.)

 

[bigbang2001]

I don't know how this works but given by the volume of postings on this, it looks it is a fuzzy area.

Talking about spillover, is it carried over in to next year. May be . May be not.
By the way EB-2 unavailable does not mean EB1-> EB2 spillover did not happen for September. There may be many cases in EB-2 queue which were already in line till Jan 2003 and their numbers added up. I am a product BEC hole and know how many in my own company were (and still ) waiting along with me in 2001/ 2002 timeframe.

Since Eb2 is unavailable, can they give any unused India EB1 to India EB2 at the last minute before october, I don't think they can do that when a category is unavailable. If there are anything remaining in India EB1 and DOS is really serious about not wasting them in FY 2006, then they should give those to India EB3 before october. (Its has nothing to do with link. The link talks about how cut-off dates work.)

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

I don't know how this works but given by the volume of postings on this, it looks it is a fuzzy area.

Talking about spillover, is it carried over in to next year. May be . May be not.
By the way EB-2 unavailable does not mean EB1-> EB2 spillover did not happen for September. There may be many cases in EB-2 queue which were already in line till Jan 2003 and their numbers added up. I am a product BEC hole and know how many in my own company were (and still ) waiting along with me in 2001/ 2002 timeframe.

anyway, how many india eb1 would be left ? -- 100 or 200 (max 500?), thats all. does not matter much if we add spouses, just drop in indian gc ocean . unused visa numbers are not carried over to next year automatically. I mentioned it to say that there may be this possibility for eb3 from the current situation though not significantly. If DOS decides to wake up the sleeping EB2 with this minuscule, being myself an EB2 sitting current and going unavailable, I would be more than happy to see that. But can I forecast something that is convenient to me in a public forum even though the reality is different -- I don't like to.

My original post was in reply to the point that why india eb3 did not go unavailablle -- DOS thinks that by moving slowly through the year, our guys will not have any idea about 3000 visa numbers. If your case was current you would know what DOS would say if you call them -- name check not no visa number available.. They think that we don't read visa bulletins.

 

[Dallas03096]

What do these numbers mean for us?

These numbers are from CIS Ombudsman's report to Congress in June 2006:

In April 2006, USCIS estimated the number of pending employment based applications for green cards to be between 170,975 and 229,291. USCIS further estimated that it will complete 136,254 employment-based applications in FY06.

Current USCIS data indicate that approximately 20 percent of pending employment-based green card applications will be denied.

The above numbers indicate:
a) USCIS does not even have a precise count of pending EB applications for GC. Surprise! Surprise!!
b) USCIS has no plans to utilize the annual quota of 140,000 visas for EB green cards in FY06

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

These numbers are from CIS Ombudsman's report to Congress in June 2006:

In April 2006, USCIS estimated the number of pending employment based applications for green cards to be between 170,975 and 229,291. USCIS further estimated that it will complete 136,254 employment-based applications in FY06.

Current USCIS data indicate that approximately 20 percent of pending employment-based green card applications will be denied.

The above numbers indicate:
a) USCIS does not even have a precise count of pending EB applications for GC. Surprise! Surprise!!
b) USCIS has no plans to utilize the annual quota of 140,000 visas for EB green cards in FY06

How will they have any idea when they have retrogression and labor substitution working together. Everytime the date moves forward there are enough people to file sub LC at that date.
1. When DOS is working with country quotas, does the labor substiution during retrogression period justified ?

Added to this, BECs also clearing labors in huge batches with older priorit dates. This is such a mess.
2. If BECs are anyway trying to clear all the labors before FY2007, then why in the world anyone has RIR and non RIR. Just to create more mess ?

No one seems to be bothered about clubbing software eb3s and amnesty eb3 together.
3. When a H1 can stay more than 6 years when his labor is pending, will any company be interested in doing the greencard seriously and quickly like the olden days ?

DOS movement does not surprise me.

 

[Dallas03096]

Very informative

Please follow this link, rest of the thread about unused visas is irrevalent now. India cannot get any spillover in any category as long as row eb3 is retrogressed.
http://www.immigrationportal.com/sh...page=6&pp=15&highlight=visa+number+works+Part

Thanks for the very informative thread.
However I do not understand one part of information in that thread which says:
Quote:
In this sense, the term "priority date" is misleading. The priority date is the way the State Department keeps track of who is entitled to a visa number and who is not. But circumstances of individual cases, including delays caused by the alien's later filing, may affect the order in which the cases are adjudicated. In other words, the priority date creates a natural order of eligibility for an immigrant visa (or, what is the same thing, eligibility to apply for adjustment of status), but once the application is filed and accepted, the rule is first-come, first-served. An earlier priority date does not entitle the applicant to earlier priority in processing.

UnQuote
According to the info above, I should get priority over those who are likely to get DOL approval with PD earlier than mine since the processing has been completed in my case;
But by artificially holding back the Visa cut-off dates in anticipation of the tens of thousands of applications likely to be approved by DOL in FY07, DOS is doing injustice to those of us for whom the processing is complete but visa numbers are not available

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

Thanks for the very informative thread.
However I do not understand one part of information in that thread which says:
Quote:
In this sense, the term "priority date" is misleading. The priority date is the way the State Department keeps track of who is entitled to a visa number and who is not. But circumstances of individual cases, including delays caused by the alien's later filing, may affect the order in which the cases are adjudicated. In other words, the priority date creates a natural order of eligibility for an immigrant visa (or, what is the same thing, eligibility to apply for adjustment of status), but once the application is filed and accepted, the rule is first-come, first-served. An earlier priority date does not entitle the applicant to earlier priority in processing.

UnQuote

What it says once a cut-off date is established, DOS goes by the receipt date in the priority batch.

Example:
When DOS moved India EB2 from July 2002 to Jan 2003, many people with November 2002 and December 2002 were cleared first because their I485 received date was earlier than some of those whose PD is July 2002 or August 2002 because July 2002 guys applied I485 later. Thats why the original poster says the priority date is misleading among the applicants belonging to the same priority date batch.

 

[Dallas03096]

Why don't USCIS say I-140 filing date is PD for lab substitute cases

How will they have any idea when they have retrogression and labor substitution working together. Everytime the date moves forward there are enough people to file sub LC at that date.
1. When DOS is working with country quotas, does the labor substiution during retrogression period justified ?

DOS movement does not surprise me.

Why can't USCIS be more sensible and declare I-140 filing date as the PD for the labor substitution cases.
This will do away the whole black market for subsititute LCs and bring in justice to people who are waiting in line with their own LCs.

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

Why can't USCIS be more sensible and declare I-140 filing date as the PD for the labor substitution cases.
This will do away the whole black market for subsititute LCs and bring in justice to people who are waiting in line with their own LCs.

Well Dallas03096,
Changing how PDs work is outside their framework, i think that would be drastic change. IMHO, it is some like our government saying kashmir (sorry to bring in politics here) will be resolved within indian constitution when already existing provisions does not make anyone happy. whats the result, people just suffer.

 

[masala dosa]

indian_gc_ocean; I have to give you kudos. Looks like you have a very good understanding of the whole issue.

Regarding priority date; the part of the law that says priority date is specific to the alien and is not transferrable is only used by uscis for purposes of 245i benefits. One cannot use a labor substituion to benefit for 245i benefits. However, to get a place in line the priority date is the date labor was filed and not substituted.

Labor substituion is not the problem with visa dates. Demand is greater then supply.

there is no provision in the law to spillover unused visas to future years. Currently it is use them or lose them.

It appears that DOS/USCiS have suspended provisions of ac21 in that countries can go over the 7% limit in a preference category if there is unused visas in that category. This is actually good news if it did happen this way to people in eb3.

In another thread, people quoted Murthy.com as saying that backlog labors were getting approved from late 2002 and 2003 so where are the april 2001 labors? Go back a couple of months ago on immigration-law.com and he stated that BEC's have just started the job placement ads for regular permanent labors. Since they are just starting the backlogged regular permanent labors from april 2001 will hit the system within the next few months.

eb3 folks from india just need to snooze for some time and don't think about getting greencard.

Is your last statement TRUE?

 

[saras76]

It will take 10 years ...

Is your last statement TRUE?

masala dosa,

UNs position is that EB3 India will take 10-15 years to become current. He can give you all necessary data to support his assertion but he has already posted detailed analysis several times. Just do a search for his analysis.

regards,

saras

 

[masala dosa]

masala dosa,

UNs position is that EB3 India will take 10-15 years to become current. He can give you all necessary data to support his assertion but he has already posted detailed analysis several times. Just do a search for his analysis.

regards,

saras

All ineed to know is when it could reach July 2002 for EB3
hihihih
thats my PD
:0
sorry for all folks

 

[Aj1971]

What are the chances of EB-3 India reaching 05/01/2001 in October Visa Bulletin?

 

[Dallas03096]

Demand > Supply? Where does anticipated demand come into the picture?

Labor substituion is not the problem with visa dates. Demand is greater then supply.

If demand is greater than supply, why have EB3-India and EB3-Mexico not become Unavailable?
(If my understanding is correct, visa numbers are allocated on quarterly basis; So after the first month of the last quarter, these two categories should have become Unavailable)

I think CIS Ombudsman has done a great disservice by bringing in DOL (and hence anticipated demand) into the picture while calculating visa cutoff dates.