GC trend and Prediction

L

lebu9

Registered Users (C)
See the recent approval, this is my guess!!

There are two category of IIO working on GC process.

1. One is working on 15 month ist FP theory, mostly started from Aug 02 cases. Therfore, Aug 02 to March 03 RDs will may get approved by this IIO within 15-16 month FP. But not all. Those cases are clean/straightford (do not know the criteria but may be good job, good company, one degree form US or reputed Institute from overseas, all paper work complete, no contract job, job directly related to Fed. Govt. etc). Those who will not be picked up there cases will go to backlog.

2. The other is working on Oct01 Rd onwards backlog caes. In this category, numbers of IIO is less as compared to number 1.

I feel March to July 02 cases will suffer most in this system.

This is my guess like many. so take it easy
Thanks

Anyway, today is Friday.
:) :D :( :eek:
 
lebu9, you are right.

Group1: New FP2/FP3 cases

Group2: FP1 about to expire cases
 
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.

The number of May 02 cases onwards that have been touched is quite miniscule. FPs of the vast majority of those cases will expire unless BSIC changes FP policy.
 
This analysis is the view that one has when being stuck on a highway at crawling speed. The other lane always seems to be moving faster.

People with 2+ years of wait always think the new cases get processed faster and those who are new to the game think my God there are people who are waiting that long when it's my turn it will be 4 years !

Ultimately, we just need to get past the wreck called USCIS and patience, planning and taking your mind off the USCIS online status site seem to help.
 
As a July 02 filer I hope you are wrong but I'm sure you're not....I guess I'll keep my fingers crossed and just hope for the best.

I might cut down the number of times I check BCIS case status but we'll see. I'm so used to waiting now that another few months might not even seem that bad. :confused:
 
When I think about my case it seems that the FP theory does not hold good.
I did my FP1 in the 1st week of Aug02 and got a RFE on 11/26/03. So technically my FP1 was expired (15 months = max 1st Week Nov03). I did not get any FP2 till now.
 
within 8 months of 3rd ead received

485 approval will definetely happen within 8 months after the receipt of your 3rd EAD. So if you 2nd EAD is going to expire within 6 months , apply for 3rd EAD . pay that extra 120 USD

this is from " AJMERI BABA" :)
 
I dont agree completely

Isn't true that I-485 case adjudications priorities were actaully based on completion of back ground checks on each individual application.

I have read some where in the forum, when USCIS wrote a letter to a senator/congress man about processing procedures for I485.

The theory mentioned here seems kind of right , but they may have a system built in pulling the cases based on

a. Back Ground check complete
b. FP expirations
c. RFE related

I dont think USCIS can discriminate adjudication of AOS cases based on if you are working for small / large firm or Govt. sponsored employee. As long as your underlying I-140 approved and company that is sponsoring GC has wages to support your future employment with them every company/employer is same and no doubt about that.

I wish some of our RD Apr 2002- Aug 2002 approved folks can share their employer size, business type and education levels, so we can analyze this further

regards
 
Originally posted by gambler
When I think about my case it seems that the FP theory does not hold good.
I did my FP1 in the 1st week of Aug02 and got a RFE on 11/26/03. So technically my FP1 was expired (15 months = max 1st Week Nov03). I did not get any FP2 till now.
Click to expand...

Is your case approved??????

I think they opened your case in October/ Early November before the expiry of FP. Some IIO approve the case even after expiry of FP if the case has opened (sent RFE or something like that....) before expiry of FP.

This is just my guess!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Originally posted by Edison
Is your case approved??????
I think they opened your case in October/ Early November before the expiry of FP. Some IIO approve the case even after expiry of FP if the case has opened (sent RFE or something like that....) before expiry of FP.
This is just my guess!!!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

TGIF, wish my case was approved .
I have not seen any case on this board which was approved with expired FP. Please point me to the post if you know any.
 
gambler,

did you get 2nd FP??

Edison, my case is the same. First FP 8/02, RFE 11/03 (just around time of FP expiry). No 2nd FP for me yet. Sumbitted info to lawyer for 3rd EAD this week.

Any predictions?
 
Originally posted by Scotgirl
gambler,

did you get 2nd FP??

Edison, my case is the same. First FP 8/02, RFE 11/03 (just around time of FP expiry). No 2nd FP for me yet. Sumbitted info to lawyer for 3rd EAD this week.

Any predictions?
Click to expand...

If the case is assigned to same officer after RFE reply, then there is chance of getting approved without RFE or IIO might request new FP. I don't know when you replied to RFE. If you replied with in thirty days then sometimes same officer picks up the case. Since you got your RFE in Nov and still waiting for approval so you can expect 2nd FP notice anytime. These days I see the approval with in one or two months after 2nd FP if you already got RFE or Maximum of three months for new RFE cases.

This prediction is just based on the trend noticed these days.

Goodluck!!!!!
 
Originally posted by Scotgirl
gambler,

did you get 2nd FP??

Edison, my case is the same. First FP 8/02, RFE 11/03 (just around time of FP expiry). No 2nd FP for me yet. Sumbitted info to lawyer for 3rd EAD this week.

Any predictions?
Click to expand...

Hey Scotgirl,
I got RFE on 17 th Nov 03, I have sent all the documents to the Lawyer, and they sent the same to USCIS in the 1st week of Dec. USCIS revd on 5th Dec. My case was approved on Jan 27 04. Hope you should be receiving 2nd FP or approval some time soon.
Good luck hope you get approval.
 
Thanks guys. RFE was received by my lawyer on 11/17 (I think). Response was received by BCIS on 11/25 and website was updated.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for approval before 2nd FP but as every day passes, my chances seem to diminish.

bdkhyd, you already had 2nd FP, right?

The wait continues.... :)
 
The prediction...

Going by the past few weeks trend, it seems to be what lebu9 said.

I think USCIS will go on approving some FP1 expiring cases for some more time but eventually start placing more folks on backlog catchup once they realize the gap between the still waiting folks (some from 10/01) and the recent approvals has gotten too big.
Then they will start sending out FP2s. I think May-Aug 02 filers should start seeing FP2/RFE/approvals in next 3-4 months or earlier and prior applicants should start seeing them anytime now.
This ofcourse assuming there is no other thing which comes up at USCIS and they are able to keep the tempo of last few weeks.

This is really like a slow moving train. If you miss it due to FP1 expired, wait for the next one. However I also feel that they will try to catch up some in near future..
 
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