FY2006 H1B Cap Watching

H

H1Bcap

Registered Users (C)
cap watching

I will be watching this thread regularly ....FY2006.
I've been watching this thread last year also...
Good Work...Keep up..
 
Is the cap predictable?

Yes or No, depending on how you intepret it. Theoretically, the cap is calculated out based on certain conditions and assumptions.
 
How is the cap being calculated out?

If we know:
1)The total cases of I-129 filed in USCIS (including all four service centers) in previous years;
2)The total cases of I-129 which are counted against the cap in the previous years;

then, a historical ratio of cap over total can be derived based on 1) and 2).

If we know:
3)The current total cases of I-129 filed in USCIS (including all four service centers);
4)The current total cases of I-129 which are counted against the cap;
5)The historical ratio can be adjusted to its finest fitness, based on 3) and 4)

Finally, based on 3) and 5) we can predict when the CAP will be filled.
 
Prediction of FY2005 Cap reaching (Posted in August 2004)

0) Introduction:
Last year I started a project ( http://boards.immigrationportal.com...ad.php?t=112199 ) of H1B cap watching and successfully CALAULATED OUT rather than GUESSED OUT the FY2004 65000 Cap's reaching time. That helps a lot of folks who relied on H1B visa. Let's do it again for FY2005.


1) Historical Statistics & Review:

FY2003:
Total cases filed: 215,190
Cap-subject cases: 79,100
So the cap-subject ratio is: 79,100/215,000 = 36.7%

FY2004:

On Feb 17, 2004 USCIS announced that "it has received enough H-1B petitions to meet this year’s congressionally

mandated cap of 65,000 new workers". What we can learn from here is:
Cap-subject cases: 58,200 (as of 02/17/2004, 65,000-reserved cases)
The problem now is how do we know how many cases exactly USCIS received by 02/17/2004. Thanks to the site (http://www.immigrationwatch.com/) which maintains the monthly statistics of filings as well as approved ones, the total cases can be calculated as (the factor 0.5 is used to offset the month of Feb for 17 days):
34576(Oct)+27874(Nov)+31406(Dec)+30875(Jan)+33173( Feb)*0.5 = 141,317
So this concludes the cap-subject ratio: 58,200/141,317 = 41.2%

This ratio is a little bit higher than FY2003's. But we can double-checked by another announcement: "On January 21, 2004 USCIS announced that 43,500 cases filed during the FY 2004 First Quarter could count against the H-1B Cap for FY 04". What we can learn from here is:
Cap-subject cases: 43,500 (as of 12/31/2003)
Total cases filed: 93,854 (34576(Oct)+27874(Nov)+31406(Dec))
So this concludes the cap-subject ratio: 43,500/93,854 = 43.6%


2) FY2005:

This fiscal year is a little bit tricky or messy. As you all know, FY2005 starts from 10/01/2004 to 09/30/2005 but USCIS started accepting cases to feed the FY2005's cap from 04/01/2004. In other words, cases filed during 04/01/2004 and 09/30/2004 could belong to FY2004 (renewal, transfer, etc) or FY2005 (new hires). That makes the statistics very hard to interpret.

There is a news reads: "Released just today, the most recent information regarding the H1B cap is that, as of August 4, 2004, 40,000 cases had been filed against the fiscal year (FY) 2005 cap". (Can any folks verify the news and point out the where-about on USCIS's site?). Let's do the same math:
Cap-subject cases: 40,000 (as of 08/04/2004)
The problem is again down to the total cases (as of 8/04/2004), since the site doesn't publish the July's statistics yet. The previous monthly data are:
32034(Apr) --> 26559(May) --> 36097(Jun)
Here, it's fair to assume July's comes out with no big surprise as ~32,000. Then we can proceed with our math:
Total cases filed: 32034(Apr)+26559(May)+36097(Jun)+32,000(Jul) = 126,690
So this concludes the cap-subject ratio of this year is: 40,000/126,690 = 31.6%


3. CALCULATION:
1) Based on a ratio of 31.6% (with assumption made above):
a) Total cases needed to fill the cap: 58,200/31.6% = 184,000
b) Time needed to fill the cap: (184,000-126,690)/32,000 = 1.79 month from 08/04/2004
c) So when: 08/04/2004 + 1.79*30 = 09/27/2004
2) Based on a ratio of 35.0% (historical statistics + FY2005's mess):
a) Total cases needed to fill the cap: 58,200/35.0% = 166,285
b) Time needed to fill the cap: (166,285-126,690)/32,000 = 1.24 month from 08/04/2004
c) So when: 08/04/2004 + 1.24*30 = 09/13/2004

4. CONCLUSIONS:
The cap of FY2005 (58,200) can be filled at any time between 09/13/2004~09/27/2004. If the reserved number has remains for sharing, the reach time may be a little bit delay. Anyway, if you solely rely on H1B for your legal stay in USA and haven’t file your petition yet, you should act very fast and push your employer or your company’s lawyer harder.

5. References:
(1): http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaff...FirstQtrH1B.pdf
(2): http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaff...1bcap_NRrev.pdf
(3): http://http://boards.immigrationpor...ad.php?t=112199
(4): http://www.immigrationwatch.com/


6. DISCLAIMER:
By the very nature of human beings, it's impossible to predict any future event. All I did here is simply a math calculation based on certain ASSUMPTIONS and HUMAN BEINGS' logics. View the results at your own discretion.
 
Was the prediction accurate?

USCIS on Oct.1, 2004 declared:

"USCIS has received enough petitions to reach the limit for FY 2005. After today, USCIS will not accept any new H-1B petitions that are subject to the FY 2005 annual cap."

This is one week away from my predict range, but if taking my note: "If the reserved number has remains for sharing, the reach time may be a little bit delay" into consideration, the prediction is quite accurate, since in the USCIS notice states:

"USCIS has factored into its count of petitions subject to the FY05 cap the number of Chile/Singapore set-asides that were unused in FY2004 and any other cases that can be counted against the previous fiscal year’s H-1B cap rather than the FY 2005 cap."
 
FY2004(5) H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 02/10/2005)

According to ImmigrationWatch.com, within FY2004 (Oct 1, 2003--Sep 30, 2004), 408344 cases (part of cases filed during Apr 1, 2004 and Sep 30, 2004 are subject to FY2005 cap) have been filed and 361354(88.4%) of them have been approved. Here is the detailed case distribution among service centers and months of FY2004:


Oct,2003
---------
...CSC Filed--7018 Approved--6088(86.7%)
...NSC Filed--7255 Approved--6697(92.3%)
...TSC Filed--7536 Approved--6808(90.3%)
...VSC Filed-12767 Approved-11519(90.2%)
SUB_TOTAL----34576----------31112(89.9%)

Nov,2003
---------
...CSC Filed--5984 Approved--5088(85.0%)
...NSC Filed--5220 Approved--4801(91.9%)
...TSC Filed--6175 Approved--5319(86.1%)
...VSC Filed-10495 Approved--9017(85.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----27874----------24225(86.9%)

Dec,2003
---------
...CSC Filed--6513 Approved--5634(86.5%)
...NSC Filed--6175 Approved--5559(90.0%)
...TSC Filed--7020 Approved--6223(88.6%)
...VSC Filed-11698 Approved-10321(88.2%)
SUB_TOTAL----31406----------27737(88.3%)

Jan,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5973 Approved--5194(86.9%)
...NSC Filed--6568 Approved--5968(90.8%)
...TSC Filed--6186 Approved--5466(88.3%)
...VSC Filed-12148 Approved-11081(91.2%)
SUB_TOTAL----30875----------27709(89.7%)

Feb,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--6030 Approved--5361(88.9%)
...NSC Filed--7391 Approved--6879(93.0%)
...TSC Filed--6625 Approved--5772(87.1%)
...VSC Filed-13127 Approved-12159(92.6%)
SUB_TOTAL----33173----------30171(90.9%)

Mar,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5354 Approved--4721(88.9%)
...NSC Filed--5758 Approved--5386(93.5%)
...TSC Filed--6107 Approved--5434(88.9%)
...VSC Filed--9955 Approved--9159(92.0%)
SUB_TOTAL----27174----------24700(90.9%)

Apr,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--6221 Approved--5177(83.2%)
...NSC Filed--6388 Approved--5906(92.4%)
...TSC Filed--6647 Approved--6012(90.4%)
...VSC Filed-12778 Approved-11343(88.7%)
SUB_TOTAL----32034----------28438(88.7%)

May,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5703 Approved--4817(84.4%)
...NSC Filed--5951 Approved--5519(92.7%)
...TSC Filed--6322 Approved--5481(86.6%)
...VSC Filed-11373 Approved-10377(91.2%)
SUB_TOTAL----29349----------26194(89.2%)

Jun,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--6311 Approved--5572(88.2%)
...NSC Filed--6873 Approved--6239(90.7%)
...TSC Filed--8256 Approved--7026(85.1%)
...VSC Filed-14657 Approved-13777(93.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----36097----------32614(90.3%)

Jul,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--6715 Approved--5719(85.1%)
...NSC Filed--8100 Approved--7026(86.7%)
...TSC Filed--7997 Approved--6977(87.2%)
...VSC Filed-12813 Approved-11999(93.6%)
SUB_TOTAL----35625----------31721(89.0%)

Aug,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--7424 Approved--6408(86.3%)
...NSC Filed--7795 Approved--6514(83.5%)
...TSC Filed--8076 Approved--6881(85.2%)
...VSC Filed-14286 Approved-13306(93.1%)
SUB_TOTAL----37581----------33109(88.1%)

Sep,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--9268 Approved--7303(78.7%)
...NSC Filed-11261 Approved--7674(68.1%)
...TSC Filed-10271 Approved--8799(85.6%)
...VSC Filed-21780 Approved-19848(91.1%)
SUB_TOTAL----52580----------43624(82.9%)

----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL-------408344---------361354(88.4%)


Again, let's just pay attention to the total case filing trend:

-> Oct:34576
-> Nov:27874
-> Dec:31406
-> Jan:30875
-> Feb:33173
-> Mar:27174
-> Apr:32034
-> May:29349
-> Jun:36097
-> Jul:35625
-> Aug:37581
-> Sep:52580

Significant observations:
--1) The total number of cases filed in September jumps 40% from August's 37581 to 52580. Apparently, people wanted to avoid the hike of application fees starting from the new fiscal year.
--2) The economy, precisely the number of H1B jobs, within the states covered by VSC is the hottest growing spot in the US. Those who are going to graduate soon should try eastern coast for more new hire opportunities.
 
FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 02/22/2005)

According to ImmigrationWatch.com, within FY2005 (Oct 1, 2004--Sep
30, 2005), 69648 cases have been filed and 47131(67.6%) of them have
been approved. Here is the detailed case distribution among service
centers and months of FY2005:


Oct,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5163 Approved--3959(76.6%)
...NSC Filed--4713 Approved--2692(57.1%)
...TSC Filed--4577 Approved--3719(81.2%)
...VSC Filed--9797 Approved--8234(84.0%)
SUB_TOTAL----24250----------18604(76.7%)

Nov,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--4195 Approved--3199(76.2%)
...NSC Filed--4961 Approved--1994(40.1%)
...TSC Filed--5523 Approved--3537(64.0%)
...VSC Filed--8987 Approved--7359(81.8%)
SUB_TOTAL----23666----------16089(67.9%)

Dec,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--3813 Approved--1657(43.4%)
...NSC Filed--4476 Approved--1783(39.8%)
...TSC Filed--5220 Approved--2746(52.6%)
...VSC Filed--8223 Approved--6252(76.0%)
SUB_TOTAL----21732----------12438(57.2%)

Jan,2005
---------
...(N/A)

Feb,2005
---------
...(N/A)

----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL--------69648----------47131(67.6%)


(c) http://www.immigrationwatch.com



Again, let's just pay attention to the total case filing trend:

FY2004:
-> 2003 Oct:34576
-> 2003 Nov:27874
-> 2003 Dec:31406
-> 2004 Jan:30875
-> 2004 Feb:33173
-> 2004 Mar:27174
-> 2004 Apr:32034
-> 2004 May:29349
-> 2004 Jun:36097
-> 2004 Jul:35625
-> 2004 Aug:37581
-> 2004 Sep:52580
FY2005:
-> 2004 Oct:24250
-> 2004 Nov:23666
-> 2004 Dec:21732



Observations:

1) The big drop of files from the end of FY2004 to the first quarter
of FY2005 confirms the observation of our last update.

2) The three months' filings of the FY2005 is quite consistent with
average cases of 22,000 -- witch will serves as a very good base or
reference when we count the increase for new files against 20,000
starting from March 8, 2005.

3) Hope we are able to have Jan and Feb's info soon which should be
consistent with observation 2.
 
FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 03/08/2005)

FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 03/08/2005)

******************************************

According to ImmigrationWatch.com, within FY2005 (Oct 1, 2004--Sep
30, 2005), 88871 cases have been filed and 69518(78.2%) of them have
been approved. Here is the detailed case distribution among service
centers and months of FY2005:


Oct,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5163 Approved--4199(81.3%)
...NSC Filed--4713 Approved--3879(82.3%)
...TSC Filed--4577 Approved--3919(85.6%)
...VSC Filed--9797 Approved--8377(85.5%)
SUB_TOTAL----24250----------20374(84.0%)

Nov,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--4195 Approved--3514(83.7%)
...NSC Filed--4961 Approved--2959(59.6%)
...TSC Filed--5523 Approved--4519(81.8%)
...VSC Filed--8987 Approved--7572(84.2%)
SUB_TOTAL----23666----------18564(78.4%)

Dec,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--3813 Approved--3132(82.1%)
...NSC Filed--4476 Approved--2706(60.4%)
...TSC Filed--5220 Approved--4226(80.9%)
...VSC Filed--8223 Approved--6959(84.6%)
SUB_TOTAL----21732----------17023(78.3%)

Jan,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--3453 Approved--2457(71.1%)
...NSC Filed--3993 Approved--1577(39.4%)
...TSC Filed--3993 Approved--3097(77.5%)
...VSC Filed--7784 Approved--6426(82.5%)
SUB_TOTAL----19223----------13557(70.5%)

Feb,2005
---------
...(N/A)

----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL--------88871----------69518(78.2%)


(c) http://www.immigrationwatch.com/



Again, let's just pay attention to the total case filing trend:

FY2004:
-> 2003 Oct:34576
-> 2003 Nov:27874
-> 2003 Dec:31406
-> 2004 Jan:30875
-> 2004 Feb:33173
-> 2004 Mar:27174
-> 2004 Apr:32034
-> 2004 May:29349
-> 2004 Jun:36097
-> 2004 Jul:35625
-> 2004 Aug:37581
-> 2004 Sep:52580

FY2005:
-> 2004 Oct:24250
-> 2004 Nov:23666
-> 2004 Dec:21732
-> 2005 JAN:19223



Observations:

1) As expected, the Jan's total number of filing is consistent with the previous three months of FY2005;

2) There is a significant process delay in TSC where approval
percentages are 59.6%, 60.4%, 39.4% for Nov.2004, Dec.2004 and
Jan.2005, respectively, while other three centers' averages are 82%,
81%, and 75%.
 
FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 05/31/2005)

FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 05/31/2005)

******************************************

According to ImmigrationWatch.com, 175224 cases have been filed for FY2005 and 144700(82.6%) of them have been approved. Here is the detailed case distribution among service centers and months of FY2005:


Oct,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5163 Approved--4514(87.4%)
...NSC Filed--4713 Approved--4199(89.0%)
...TSC Filed--4577 Approved--4092(89.41%)
...VSC Filed--9797 Approved--8719(88.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----24250----------21524(88.7%)

Nov,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--4195 Approved--3679(87.6%)
...NSC Filed--4961 Approved--4074(82.1%)
...TSC Filed--5523 Approved--4697(86.8%)
...VSC Filed--8987 Approved--7977(88.7%)
SUB_TOTAL----23666----------20427(86.1%)

Dec,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--3813 Approved--3372(88.4%)
...NSC Filed--4476 Approved--3943(88.0%)
...TSC Filed--5220 Approved--4663(89.3%)
...VSC Filed--8223 Approved--7314(88.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----21732----------19292(88.7%)

Jan,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--3453 Approved--3137(90.8%)
...NSC Filed--3993 Approved--3554(89.0%)
...TSC Filed--3993 Approved--3674(92.0%)
...VSC Filed--7784 Approved--7176(91.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----19223----------17541(91.2%)

Feb,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4307 Approved--3999(92.8%)
...NSC Filed--4555 Approved--4172(91.5%)
...TSC Filed--4724 Approved--3866(81.8%)
...VSC Filed--7266 Approved--6528(89.8%)
SUB_TOTAL----20852----------18565(89.0%)

Mar,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4871 Approved--4114(84.4%)
...NSC Filed--5275 Approved--4457(84.4%)
...TSC Filed--6210 Approved--5226(84.1%)
...VSC Filed-10776 Approved--8783(81.5%)
SUB_TOTAL----27132----------22580(83.2%)

Apr,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--7468 Approved--4001(53.5%)
...NSC Filed--7683 Approved--4799(62.4%)
...TSC Filed--7345 Approved--6172(84.0%)
...VSC Filed-15873 Approved--9799(61.7%)
SUB_TOTAL----38369----------24771(64.5%)

----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL-------175224---------144700(82.6%)


(c) http://www.immigrationwatch.com/



Again, let's just pay attention to the total case filing trend:

FY2004:
-> 2003 Oct:34576
-> 2003 Nov:27874
-> 2003 Dec:31406
-> 2004 Jan:30875
-> 2004 Feb:33173
-> 2004 Mar:27174
-> 2004 Apr:32034
-> 2004 May:29349
-> 2004 Jun:36097
-> 2004 Jul:35625
-> 2004 Aug:37581
-> 2004 Sep:52580

FY2005:
-> 2004 Oct:24250
-> 2004 Nov:23666
-> 2004 Dec:21732
-> 2005 Jan:19223
-> 2005 Feb:20852
-> 2005 Mar:27132
-> 2005 Apr:38369


Observations:

1) As expected, the Feb's total number of filing is quite consistent with the previous months of FY2005;

2) As expected, the total number of filing is starting pick up from March, 2005, partially due to the earlier birds for Mrach 8's filing.

3) The significant pick-up is observed for the April,2005 with the total number of filing being 38,369, which accouts for a 90% jump compared to the previous months' average. This is quite obviously due to the official openning of FY2006's 65K H1B cap starting from April 1, 2005.

4) Compared to the same month of previous year, a 20% jump is still observed from 32,034 of last April to 38369 of this April. A sign of worsen situation of exhausting of H1B cap -- should it be a trend an alert will be issued to all subscribers if further confirmed by May's stats.
 
FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 06/25/2005)

FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 06/25/2005)

******************************************

According to ImmigrationWatch.com, 214853 cases have been filed for FY2005 and 169450(78.8%) of them have been approved. Here is the detailed case distribution among service centers and months of FY2005:


Oct,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5163 Approved--4532(87.7%)
...NSC Filed--4713 Approved--4199(89.0%)
...TSC Filed--4577 Approved--4097(89.5%)
...VSC Filed--9797 Approved--8719(88.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----24250----------21547(88.8%)

Nov,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--4195 Approved--3714(88.5%)
...NSC Filed--4961 Approved--4114(82.9%)
...TSC Filed--5523 Approved--4799(86.8%)
...VSC Filed--8987 Approved--7994(88.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----23666----------20621(87.1%)

Dec,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--3813 Approved--3377(88.5%)
...NSC Filed--4476 Approved--3946(88.1%)
...TSC Filed--5220 Approved--4706(90.1%)
...VSC Filed--8223 Approved--7354(89.4%)
SUB_TOTAL----21732----------19383(89.2%)

Jan,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--3453 Approved--3159(91.4%)
...NSC Filed--3993 Approved--3599(90.1%)
...TSC Filed--3993 Approved--3679(92.1%)
...VSC Filed--7784 Approved--7201(92.5%)
SUB_TOTAL----19223----------17638(91.7%)

Feb,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4307 Approved--4052(94.0%)
...NSC Filed--4555 Approved--4234(92.9%)
...TSC Filed--4724 Approved--3961(83.8%)
...VSC Filed--7266 Approved--6626(91.1%)
SUB_TOTAL----20852----------18873(90.5%)

Mar,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4871 Approved--4212(86.4%)
...NSC Filed--5275 Approved--4617(87.5%)
...TSC Filed--6210 Approved--5321(85.6%)
...VSC Filed-10776 Approved--8961(83.1%)
SUB_TOTAL----27132----------23111(85.2%)

Apr,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--7468 Approved--4681(62.6%)
...NSC Filed--7683 Approved--6439(83.8%)
...TSC Filed--7345 Approved--6532(88.9%)
...VSC Filed-15873 Approved-10274(64.7%)
SUB_TOTAL----38369----------27926(72.8%)

May,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4465 Approved--1554(34.8%)
...NSC Filed--8087 Approved--3692(45.6%)
...TSC Filed--6344 Approved--5066(79.8%)
...VSC Filed-20733 Approved-10039(48.4%)
SUB_TOTAL----39629----------20351(51.4%)

----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL-------214853---------169450(78.8%)


(c) http://www.immigrationwatch.com/



Again, let's just pay attention to the total case filing trend:

FY2004:
-> 2003 Oct:34576
-> 2003 Nov:27874
-> 2003 Dec:31406
-> 2004 Jan:30875
-> 2004 Feb:33173
-> 2004 Mar:27174
-> 2004 Apr:32034
-> 2004 May:29349
-> 2004 Jun:36097
-> 2004 Jul:35625
-> 2004 Aug:37581
-> 2004 Sep:52580

FY2005:
-> 2004 Oct:24250
-> 2004 Nov:23666
-> 2004 Dec:21732
-> 2005 Jan:19223
-> 2005 Feb:20852
-> 2005 Mar:27132
-> 2005 Apr:38369
-> 2005 May:39629


Observations:


1) As it was observed in the last summary, April's filing is much higher compared to the same month of previous year;

2) May's filing is not decilning, as it was the case for 2004, after the first rush of April. But if we take into consideration of the 20K's rushing, May's record may not actually be that bad.

3) As expected, a significant pick-up is observed for the VSC May with the total number of filing being 20,733, which accouts for a 30% jump compared to the previous months' average. This is quite obviously due to the official openning of FY2005's extra 20K H1B cap starting from May 12, 2005.

4) As far as the usage of 20K cap, we may have a good guess here since USCIS put them in a single service center which makes the math quite easier:

VSC monthly average before April: ~7500
VSC April's filing: 15873
VSC May's filing: 20733
So, those against 65K are: 15873-7500=~8373 (VSC only)
those against 20K are: 20733-((15873+7500)/2)=~9046

5) After a single month's peak of April, CSC filing rushes back to the normal average without a second fight -- indicating the new hiring is still suffering from the burst of dot com bubble.


Conclusions:

1) For those filing against 20K, take it easy, you should have a plenty of room there. 9046 is the rush number and the filing should slow in pace after the rush based on our years' observations. Even it's gone, you still have the choice against 2006's 20K cap. So your Master degree helps a lot in that matter.

2) For those filing against regular 65K cap, your situation is not too bad as most people expected, thanks to the delay of Fy2005's extra 20K and the incoming Fy2006's extra 20K (actually is 65K+20K+20K=105K for this year). But your situation is not safer than the last year atleast based on April and May's stats. No alert issued until the next month's stats.


All the best
H1Bcap
 
Prediction made for FY2006 CAP reaching

Prediction made for FY2006 CAP reaching
***************************************

(0)INTRODUCTION:

In the past two years, I did the prediction based on statistical modelling and mathematical calculation. In this year, however, the H1B case filing stats comes in very slow pace due to the inactivity of the souce site[5]. But thanks to the USCIS official cap stats[3], it's much easier to wild-guess the reach of FY2006's 65K H1B cap.

(1) HISTORICAL STATS & REVIEW:

FY2004: 43,500(01/21/04) --> 65,000(02/17/04)

On January 21, 2004 USCIS announced that "43,500 cases filed during the FY 2004 First Quarter could count against the H-1B Cap for FY 04". Then the cap was reached one month later(On Feb 17, 2004 USCIS announced that "it has received enough H-1B petitions to meet this year’s congressionally mandated cap of 65,000 new workers".)

FY2005: 40,000(08/04/04) --> 65,000(09/30/04)

"As of August 4, 2004, 40,000 cases had been filed against the fiscal year (FY) 2005 cap". The the cap was reached two months later (On Oct.1, 2004 USCIS declared "USCIS has received enough petitions to reach the limit for FY 2005. After today, USCIS will not accept any new H-1B petitions that are subject to the FY 2005 annual cap.")


(2) THE CURRENT YEAR:

FY2006: 49,040(07/31/05) [3] --> 65,000(??/??/05)

Based on FY2004's pattern, the cap for this year would be reached around 08/31/05 -- one month later;
Based on FY2005's pattern, however, the reach date should be 09/30/05 if USCIS mistakenly count the number again as it did in FY2005 counting [4]. Just forget it, the chance is too slim. That mistake has already put USCIS and the Homeland Security Department in very bad position in front of Congress which resulted in the significant delay of the March 8's debut of 20K exemption.

(3) RERERENCES:

(1):
http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaffairs/statements/04FirstQtrH1B.pdf
(2): http://uscis.gov/graphics/publicaffairs/newsrels/h1bcap_NRrev.pdf
(3): http://uscis.gov/graphics/services/tempbenefits/cap.htm
(4): http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050325/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/too_many_visas&e=3
(5): http://www.immigrationwatch.com/


(4) CONCLUSIONS:

The cap of FY2006 (58,200) can be filled at any time between 08/22/2004~08/26/2004. If the reserved number (6,800) has remains for sharing, the reach time may be a little bit delay. Anyway, if you solely rely on H1B for your legal stay in USA and haven't file your petition yet, you should act very very fast and push your employer or your company's lawyer harder and harder.

(5) DISCLAIMER:

By the very nature of human beings, it's impossible to predict any kind of future event. View the prediction at your own discretion.
 
Extra 20,000

How long do you think we will have time for the extra 20,000. I know the obvious answer is hurry up, but do you think USCIS came up with 20,000 to allow master's degree holders not have a problem when applying? I wonder how many master's degree (or higher) holders were given H-1b in the year 2003 when the quota was much higher?
 
FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 09/26/2005)

FY2005 H-1B PROCESSING STATUS (As of 09/26/2005)

******************************************

According to ImmigrationWatch.com, 295828 cases have been filed for FY2005 and 242439(81.9%) of them have been approved. Here is the detailed case distribution among service centers and months of FY2005:

Oct,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--5163 Approved--4697(90.9%)
...NSC Filed--4713 Approved--4199(89.0%)
...TSC Filed--4577 Approved--4114(89.8%)
...VSC Filed--9797 Approved--8732(89.1%)
SUB_TOTAL----24250----------21742(89.6%)

Nov,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--4195 Approved--3892(92.7%)
...NSC Filed--4961 Approved--4154(83.7%)
...TSC Filed--5523 Approved--4834(87.5%)
...VSC Filed--8987 Approved--7999(89.0%)
SUB_TOTAL----23666----------20879(88.2%)

Dec,2004
---------
...CSC Filed--3813 Approved--3474(91.1%)
...NSC Filed--4476 Approved--3968(88.6%)
...TSC Filed--5220 Approved--4761(91.2%)
...VSC Filed--8223 Approved--7377(89.7%)
SUB_TOTAL----21732----------19580(90.1%)

Jan,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--3453 Approved--3212(93.0%)
...NSC Filed--3993 Approved--3657(91.5%)
...TSC Filed--3993 Approved--3697(92.5%)
...VSC Filed--7784 Approved--7328(94.1%)
SUB_TOTAL----19223----------17894(93.1%)

Feb,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4307 Approved--4132(95.9%)
...NSC Filed--4555 Approved--4297(94.3%)
...TSC Filed--4724 Approved--4241(89.7%)
...VSC Filed--7266 Approved--6848(94.2%)
SUB_TOTAL----20852----------19518(93.6%)

Mar,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4871 Approved--4457(91.5%)
...NSC Filed--5275 Approved--4839(91.7%)
...TSC Filed--6210 Approved--5503(88.6%)
...VSC Filed-10776 Approved--9266(85.9%)
SUB_TOTAL----27132----------24065(88.7%)

Apr,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--7468 Approved--5663(75.8%)
...NSC Filed--7683 Approved--6879(89.5%)
...TSC Filed--7345 Approved--6817(92.8%)
...VSC Filed-15873 Approved-13074(82.3%)
SUB_TOTAL----38369----------32433(84.5%)

May,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--4465 Approved--2857(63.9%)
...NSC Filed--8087 Approved--7057(87.2%)
...TSC Filed--6344 Approved--5888(92.8%)
...VSC Filed-20733 Approved-13919(67.1%)
SUB_TOTAL----39629----------29721(75.0%)

Jun,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--5365 Approved--4132(77.0%)
...NSC Filed--8280 Approved--6903(83.3%)
...TSC Filed--9224 Approved--7961(86.3%)
...VSC Filed-18753 Approved-12377(66.0%)
SUB_TOTAL----41622----------31373(75.4%)

Jul,2005
---------
...CSC Filed--5962 Approved--3928(65.8%)
...NSC Filed--7648 Approved--3921(51.2%)
...TSC Filed--8375 Approved--6399(76.5%)
...VSC Filed-17368 Approved-10986(63.2%)
SUB_TOTAL----39353----------25234(64.1%)

----------------------------------------------------
TOTAL-------295828---------242439(81.9%)


(c) http://www.immigrationwatch.com/


Again, let's just pay attention to the total case filing trend:

FY2004:
-> 2003 Oct:34576
-> 2003 Nov:27874
-> 2003 Dec:31406
-> 2004 Jan:30875
-> 2004 Feb:33173
-> 2004 Mar:27174
-> 2004 Apr:32034
-> 2004 May:29349
-> 2004 Jun:36097
-> 2004 Jul:35625
-> 2004 Aug:37581
-> 2004 Sep:52580

FY2005:
-> 2004 Oct:24250
-> 2004 Nov:23666
-> 2004 Dec:21732
-> 2005 Jan:19223
-> 2005 Feb:20852
-> 2005 Mar:27132
-> 2005 Apr:38369 (+20%)
-> 2005 May:39629 (+35%)
-> 2005 Jun:41622 (+15%)
-> 2005 Jul:39353 (+10%)


Observations:


1) As it was observed in the last summany, April's filing is much higher compared to the same month of previous year;

2) May's filing is not decilning, as it was the case for 2004, after the first rush of April. But if we take into consideration of the 20K's rushing, May's record may not actually be that bad.

3) As expected, a significant pick-up is observed for the VSC May with the total number of filing being 20,733, which accouts for a 30% jump compared to the previous months' average. This is quite obviously due to the official openning of FY2005's extra 20K H1B cap starting from May 12, 2005.

4) In genaral, however, the filing to compete the H1B cap got more aggressive than last year: 20% more for April, 35% more for May and 10% more for Jul, respectively.

5) As far as the usage of 20K cap, USCIS put them in a single service center which deserves a special track:

VSC Apr's filing: 15873
VSC May's filing: 20733
VSC Jun's filing: 18753
VSC Jul's filing: 17368
 
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