Fun With Numbers - Backlog Processing

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paulclarke1

Registered Users (C)
Just for fun I decided to try to work out what it would take to meet the 6 month processing goal set out by the Bush Administration.

My idea is that the amount of time it takes to clear the backlog is a function of a number of things.

Number of Cases Outstanding Today
Number of New Cases Received Per Month
Number of Adjudicators
How Long It Takes to Process Each Case

I have made the following assumptions.

Since NSC is working Jan 02 cases now I have assumed the backlog to be 20 months.

Based on the results of the greenland script I am assuming that they see 400 new cases per day and they work on average 22 days per month (8800 cases).

At 20 months at 8800 cases per month, there are 176000 cases waiting at NSC (This is very conservative in my estimate).

From the TSC posting the other day I am assuming that each adjudicator can process 17.5 cases per day (the TSC posting said 15-20 per day).

So from this I have tried to create a profile overtime of what would happen to the backlog based on varying numbers of adjudicators.

eg. 5 adjudicators would take 95 months to process 182875 cases.
In order not to grow the backlog, you would require 22.9 adjudicators.

To reduce the backlog to 6 months you would need to allocate 35 adjudicators for 18 months.

I know that none of this is scientific, but I hope that it illustrates the challenge they have in front of them and the futility of hoping that a magic bullet can be found.

If you want to try your own scenario's then change any of the cells highlighted in yellow and this will give you different results.
 
In Answer

D1203 - How do I sleep.
Long ago I stopped worrying about this having decided that I should not get upset about things that I can't impact. Also I am a March 02 alum so at the current rate they will be blowing the dust of my case sometime in the next 6 months. (Its been over 3 years since I started down this path).

kjkool,
You can get close to a 306k backlog if you load up a 35 week backlog. If that is the backlog. To get to a 6 months waiting time it would take 50 adjudicators 18 months.

But I think it is clear that we are not going to see the end of 18 mth plus wait times anytime soon.
 
now, how would these numbers change if USCIS decided to spread the workload across all 4 centers?

TSC is 33 months behind, so those extra 13 month difference of cases would definitely affect NSC in a negative way if they were to start transferring cases from TSC to other service centers.

They did it with I-140 cases in November 2001, what is stopping them from doing that with I-485 cases to reduce the backlog?
 
Thats a good thought!

Paulclarke1,

The 'Devil's Arithmetic' you've come up with is certainly commendable, although it can still be refined quite a bit. Seriously why dont we suggest this to be presented to the NSC thro' Rajiv or some attorney?

As you've mentioned your case being Mar'02 and 6months to reach that, I suppose my case(Nov'02) is not in sight atleast for another full 12 months right?

-MrCoolz
RD:11/27/02
 
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