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First CEAC file for DV2015

Britsimon

Britsimon

Super Moderator
OK - we finally have some data to look at. I am still running EU and AS and will publish the complete file in a few hours but there is a file for AF, SA and OC already posted here:-

http://britsimonsays.com/dv2015-ceac-data-published/

Some highlights:

  • The file now shows all cases, not just those scheduled for interview.
  • We can now see max case numbers, understand true density and so on.
  • We can now see the big drop in AF max case number that confirms that AF will fall short of the number reached last year.
  • AOS cases are in the file, but probably won't be updated.
 
Great job. Thanks a lot for informations. Have a good sleep and good dreams .I think so all the EU winners wants to send you Gooood Morning coffee :)
 
WOW. The data is amazing... to see the cases to the end of the year is very revealing. We can already get a clear picture of density - EU for example has a massive drop off at about CN15000. The density of cases per thousand CNs HALVES at that point (and stays steady until the max case number of 45006 (yes I said 45006). So - there are 11k cases in the first 15CNs and 11K cases in the last 30K CNs.

That will most certainly impact the case number progression since the DS260 delay has caused them to go past the majority of the case numbers.
 
Thank you @Britsimon for your amazing work!! Based on these numbers, can you provide an estimated final cutoff for regions, Asia in particular?
Cheers!
 
xNikitax said:
Great news, thanks a lot @Britsimon!!
On the strength of the data, do you think it'll be possible for EU to get current in Aug/Sept?
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No - I don't believe EU will go current - so actually, knowing the max case is about 45k, that makes me feel the cutoff will fall earlier than the 42 to 45 I have been saying.
 
Sammy967 said:
Interesting! Seems like the DS-260 fiasco at the beginning of the year might be compensated with a better end to the year than that of DV2014! Kudos to you @Britsimon for the effort and time you put into this :)
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Actually I think we will be feeling the effects of the DS260 fiasco for a while yet - by slower increases in VB because of the volume of already current cases which are now finishing processing...
 
My CN is 2015EU35XXX - having in mind the CEAC data, what are the news for me - good or bad? (sorry about my ignorance but I'm lost in all those tables and graphs)
 
So, this is how the issued/refused/AP comparison for each region would look like. I took the total processed (interviewed) cases (issued+refused+AP) from your table and broke them down into percentages.
 

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Savannah@ said:
WHAT CUT OFF WOULD YOU PREDICT FOR EU REGION BASED ON SUCH A LOW DENSITY?
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Caps lock off please!

OK from previous posts I see you and your mother have CNs about EU410XX. If you had asked me yesterday I would have been very confident that you would have an interview because the increase in EU quota and so on. However, unless I am mistaken the data we now see in CEAC includes all cases up to the max case of 45006. That means there are only about 1500 cases higher than your case number. I am surprised the max case is that low - I had assumed it was around 50k, so finding the density is so much higher is a big shock (and suggests agents at work in the two big EU countries). So - I think the EU cutoff might be lower than I thought - possibly lower than the number reached last year. The DS260 wrinkle might have changed things - only time will tell but I expect the EU VB progress to slow down a bit to around 3000 per month from now on.
 
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