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February 2020 VB for March 2020 interviews published

Lya said:
Please at this point. What are you thoughts about SA??
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I'm not Simon, and I'm also not very optimistic with the future of numbers over 2.500. Embassies' capacity (most cases are spread between 2 embassies that are not used to the load this year: Georgetown -for cubans- has around 600 cases /year, this year over 2000; and Bogota that just manages venezuelan's dv lottery cases because they are not eligible for it and they have learned so they can handle them. MY OPINION. I'm not an expert.
 
veronice said:
I'm not Simon, and I'm also not very optimistic with the future of numbers over 2.500. Embassies' capacity (most cases are spread between 2 embassies that are not used to the load this year: Georgetown -for cubans- has around 600 cases /year, this year over 2000; and Bogota that just manages venezuelan's dv lottery cases because they are not eligible for it and they have learned so they can handle them. MY OPINION. I'm not an expert.
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I can't believe we stay out this year
 
Lya said:
I can't believe we stay out this year
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Hey I'm no expert here. And I don't want to crush anybody's dreams... I'm just saying that, at this pace, we will barely get to 2200 - 2500.
BUT there are rumors about a new wing for Bogota's embassy to receive the load of cases from Venezuela (not just DV cases, all the requests) and that could improve the pace a lot. So... as the experts say: "WAIT AND SEE. Don't lose hope just yet
 
veronice said:
I'm not Simon, and I'm also not very optimistic with the future of numbers over 2.500. Embassies' capacity (most cases are spread between 2 embassies that are not used to the load this year: Georgetown -for cubans- has around 600 cases /year, this year over 2000; and Bogota that just manages venezuelan's dv lottery cases because they are not eligible for it and they have learned so they can handle them. MY OPINION. I'm not an expert.
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Correct me if I'm wrong but even though indeed most of the cases will have to go through those 2 embassies (Im Venezuelan, so Im familiarized with the issue) it does not necessarily mean that VB number has to progress slowly. Numbers could go up faster to in order to have more cases be current (giving more opportunity to more people, which is the whole purpose of the DV) and then each embassy individually will schedule their cases as they can. In this case, if for example 2000 comes current at some point, someone with a CN 1800 based in Chile could be scheduled quicker than someone with CN 1500 but needed to be interviewed in Colombia. Either way, let's not focus the discussion on those specific numbers, but just on the argument. I'm just trying to to add a little bit more clarity to the SA mistery... It would be great to have some input from some of the more experienced members.

By the way, my CN is 34XX. I'm Venezuelan, but I'm supposed to be interviewed in Chile, therefore I'm rooting for SA to go current at least in the last couple of months because Santiago's embassy should have no backlog at all.
 
MGRS said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but even though indeed most of the cases will have to go through those 2 embassies (Im Venezuelan, so Im familiarized with the issue) it does not necessarily mean that VB number has to progress slowly. Numbers could go up faster to in order to have more cases be current (giving more opportunity to more people, which is the whole purpose of the DV) and then each embassy individually will schedule their cases as they can. In this case, if for example 2000 comes current at some point, someone with a CN 1800 based in Chile could be scheduled quicker than someone with CN 1500 but needed to be interviewed in Colombia. Either way, let's not focus the discussion on those specific numbers, but just on the argument. I'm just trying to to add a little bit more clarity to the SA mistery... It would be great to have some input from some of the more experienced members.

By the way, my CN is 34XX. I'm Venezuelan, but I'm supposed to be interviewed in Chile, therefore I'm rooting for SA to go current at least in the last couple of months because Santiago's embassy should have no backlog at all.
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I don't share Veronice's fear about her number. I think it is possible there will be a cutoff, but I expect it to be over 3000. Obviously it all hinges on Cuba. They have had a sudden increase in selectees, but I'm not convinced they will achieve a high rate of approvals. We will have to wait a couple more months to see how that is going...
 
Britsimon said:
I don't share Veronice's fear about her number. I think it is possible there will be a cutoff, but I expect it to be over 3000. Obviously it all hinges on Cuba. They have had a sudden increase in selectees, but I'm not convinced they will achieve a high rate of approvals. We will have to wait a couple more months to see how that is going...
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If in SA selected too many, why decided to send the email by notifying people who haven't interested in first place, creating more delay? and now more people can stay out. Maybe I'm saying nonsense but I don't understand
 
Lya said:
If in SA selected too many, why decided to send the email by notifying people who haven't interested in first place, creating more delay? and now more people can stay out. Maybe I'm saying nonsense but I don't understand
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KCC moves in mysterious ways.
 
Lya said:
If in SA selected too many, why decided to send the email by notifying people who haven't interested in first place, creating more delay? and now more people can stay out. Maybe I'm saying nonsense but I don't understand
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Probably because it’s easier to send to all selectees than only those who submitted a ds260, then they have to send further emails every time someone submits one after the first email blast, etc.
 
Britsimon said:
I don't share Veronice's fear about her number. I think it is possible there will be a cutoff, but I expect it to be over 3000. Obviously it all hinges on Cuba. They have had a sudden increase in selectees, but I'm not convinced they will achieve a high rate of approvals. We will have to wait a couple more months to see how that is going...
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Thank you Simon for your input. Indeed they had a huge jump from their 2015 - 2019 median of 733 all the way up to 2763 selectees this year.

I have noticed on Xarthisius data that Georgetown embassy is processing far more visas per month than their 2019 average (adding Issued + Refused + AP). I know it is just a 3 month sample on DV2020 but difference seems significant. On the other hand, Bogota embassy has not entirely picked up the slack from Caracas (which is not available anymore since 2Q of 2019).

Hopefully next couple of bulletins bring significant jumps and more clarity to SA.
 
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