estimated date of approval

C

cagcwaiter

Registered Users (C)
Someone asked this question days ago and there were different numbers.

Refer to this site
http://www.immigration.gov/graphics/aboutus/statistics/msrjan03/BENEFIT.HTM

it says 56K applications are pending in 485 as of Jan end. Assuming we have only -02 cases ( assuming all -01 are approved), you would have about 400 work days up until the end of Jan 2003. Take a conservative number of 350. Then you have 56K/350 = 160 cases per workday being filed. We know INS(hit) will never reach this approval rate to be able to catch up with piled up applications. But I guess we can take
((No of work days after JIT's 485 date to currentdate)*160) / (current approval rate in no of cases per day). That would give you the number of business days for your approval. For accuracy take the average daily approval rate for last month and make this calculation a rolling calculation every month. That would give an idea of fluctuation in the estimate too. Am I right ( atleast reasonably) knowing the INS(hit) does not follow order and pattern? Most of us may disagree with this calculation and many so, because you can not digest the outcome of this calculation as it gives mind boggling date that may be after your life time!!! By the way I have not done this calculation for my case which is 02-27X-XXXXX. I do not want to disappoint myself.

I guess working with INS(hit) puts your math skills to test.
 
correction

I stand to correct on this formula

((No of work days after JIT's 485 date to your receipt date)*160) / (current approval rate in no of cases per day).
 
I am confused

Ok read these two,

Major volumes in January 2003 receipts include: 56,275 I-485 permanent resident adjustments

Major volumes of pending cases at the end of January 2003 include: 1,078,956 I-485 permanent resident adjustments;

(These are from the link you posted)

That means, 1.07 MILLION applications are pending, not 56K, which were received only in January .. am I correct?? But u've gotta remember, the 1.07M includes family based/asylum based/and all families of employment based, so the real # is apprx 500 apps a day, of which less than one is being approved per day right now.

Which means, if they have worked say .. till beginning November' 01, .. you do the math .. I know it's ugly.
 
By that time Planet Pluto G(I)C will be approved

I think I can travel to Planet Pluto and get a ICE Card for me.

WAC 02-089.
 
I think SM is correct.

And even though overall approval rate may drop ONLY about 26%, but to me the approval rate for I-485 dropped at least 90%...
 
you see that little red line going up dramatically (pending)

and the little green line going down dramatically (approvals)

that's why we are in this situation were in
 
Might I point, the green line going up in january is thanks to VSC and NSC, not CSC or TSC.
 
Ooops

BIG Ooops ..I think i did not read that link completely. I agree 56K is only for Jan'03. In fact pending cases are more than a million!!. Well, I quit. I would rather pin my hopes on lotto!!!
 
Also very interesting to note off that graph/table.....


Denials has gone way up in percentage terms!!!

Fiscal Year

Last year denials were 183,330 on 2,042,493 approvals or 8.96%

This year denials were 208,234 on 1,516,839 approvals or 13.7%
 
total number of applications in CSC

Here is what I think :

Employment Based Category has 140,000 GC per year ( Please refer any Visa Bulletin )

So let us assume for only fiscal year 2002 ( Oct 2001 to Sep 2002)

Since there are 4 service centers, CSC should have 35,000 EB applications filed.

so , monthly I-485 applications filed may be aroung 35,000 /12 ~ 3000 applications

so assuming 20 work days per month, they should approve 3000/20 = 150 per/day ( Not bad at all )

Now If I am right from the JIT, CSC only processes I-485 for EBs ( that might be good, if I am right )

Any other opinions???

Thanks
 
Originally posted by Silly Man
Anyone seen the new JIT? The rest of the 3 centers released theirs.
Click to expand...

What do you mean new? The latest JITs have date February 15, 2003 for all centers including CSC
 
485 filings down...

One microscopic data point...my lawyer said that in 2002 the 485 filings went down ( for his office ) by 30% since the H1 filing went down by the same amount..so much so that he had to down-size his assistants from 4 to 2. Also the delay in labor and I-140 approvals meant that there was a large decrease in his revenue.
My point is that one (unfortunate as it is) advantage of this downturn is that fewer people are filing for 485s. Maybe that will help approval rates a year from now.
 
Re: total number of applications in CSC

Originally posted by Jitup
Here is what I think :

Employment Based Category has 140,000 GC per year ( Please refer any Visa Bulletin )
...
Any other opinions???

Thanks
Click to expand...

The Visa Bulletin http://travel.state.gov/visa_bulletin.html describes:
Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.
Click to expand...

Does it mean only 140,000 EB immigrants per year ?

Then, totally 140,000 (EB) + 226,000 (Family Based) + 55,000 (DV) = 421,000 immigrants per year ?
 
To sum it up in one word Depressing! :(

How in the world and when in the world will they ever catch up. Someone pointed out that due to the down turn people entering the queue later will have less wait time, but we are totally screwed! :(

I fail to understand why it takes so much time to process a freaking AOS?

Your labor department has certified that the job for your qualifications exists, your 140 department has agreed to allow you to immigrate, now what the heck is 485 for? Just adjustment of status? After all the back ground work has been done earlier. All they have to do is STAMP The freaking Passport and issue you with a freaking card. DOES IT TAKE THAT MUCH TIME? BLOODY MORONS! Ugh! Makes a person so pissed off. I wish we were like that INS director, who was smuggled inside the country. Din't have to worry about no waiting/green card. Why would he understand our position?
 
140_takes_4ever ... you are so right !!!

I was also thinking in the same line for months (probably most other members must be thinking same too). You just worded my thought. I simply cannot understand what is causing this hold up. Most of the required processing is allready done !!! Only possible excuse could be this FBI thing ... post 9/11, again that too should be over by now, has to be.

All they have to do now is tally the finger prints and issue an approval and that's it ... why then this hesitation I do not understand ... a bunch of jerks are at the helm of BCIS and every other organizations of this country ...


:mad:

- life_on_hold

02-033
RD : 10/4
ND : 11/7
 
Hey 140_takes_4ever, the FBI director family's was caught and they were all deported. His whole family came back legit...that's what I read somewhere.

It's so fortunate of me that I came across this board in January...otherwise I wouldn't know what the f*** was going on in the CSC. I think they are coming back to processing speeds which were the norm before the whole boom period. Friends from my work who applied in the mid to late 90's took 4-5 yrs for the while green card process.
 
Estimate of my approval

Assuming that CSC will approve wac02-041 cases with the same speed (one per day), all these cases will be completed in 350 business days, that is around August, 2004.

Notice that 02-041 cases (Nov 16,02 ND) match the current JIT exactly. And according to the logic above, do not expect that the JIT will move any further during the rest of this year.
 
Totally agree with you

140-takes-4ever, You said it!

It is totally unreasonable for these INS people to delay the processing of I-485. That's why we should be united and start some type of campaign to push these people: write to newspaper, write to senators are all possible approaches.

If we can put our voice together, we can change something, but we need a good plan...

Jeremy
 
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