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Embassy league table....

That is interesting! Some %s skewed by low numbers like Oman but ...yes kind of fits with anecdotes.

At one point there were numbers on fraudulent applications available but I have not seen those for a while - I guess they would go some way to explaining those rates though there are also eg the issues Albania seems to have with education qualifications, and people being disqualified for leaving off dependents off the original entry, etc.

Btw some of these refusals have consequences. There was a post by the visa officer on the Nairaland forum warning posters that they had caught a number of people trying to use other applicants packs. Noting that they had both sophisticated photo recognition software and a good relationship with the Lagos police, they had these people arrested on the way out the embassy! I know Nigeria is no longer in the DV lottery but interesting anyway.
 
Good stuff!
Did you make it from the spreadsheet that is posted in the "Final DV2014 Ceac Data"?
When I look at that file and at the League, I see this for BNK:
League.png
Am I looking at the right "Final Global" file?
 
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Sensei-san said:
Good stuff!
Did you make it from the spreadsheet that is posted in the "Final DV2014 Ceac Data"?
When I look at that file and at the League, I see this for BNK:
View attachment 239
Am I looking at the right "Final Global" file?
Click to expand...

I combined all the regions from the 9/30 file. So if you are looking at just the Asia tab on the final global file you could be missing people from other regions who interviewed in Bankok. Does that make sense?
 
Sensei-san said:
Good stuff!
Click to expand...
Britsimon said:
I combined all the regions from the 9/30 file. So if you are looking at just the Asia tab on the final global file you could be missing people from other regions who interviewed in Bankok. Does that make sense?
Click to expand...
Yes. It perfectly checks out. Those other regions spoil the final "percentage issued" a bit (possibly did not get all the documents from their countries to end up in categories other than "Issued"). Thank you
 
Sensei-san said:
Yes. It perfectly checks out. Those other regions spoil the final "percentage issued" a bit (possibly did not get all the documents from their countries to end up in categories other than "Issued"). Thank you
Click to expand...


Yes, there is probably a provable higher risk of taking your interview at a foreign embassy - hence the effect you mention in "spoiling the otherwise good record. Though obviously the overall numbers for Bankok are too small to be a safe indicator.
 
When I looked at the table, I realized that the total visas issued, including family members are about 77k! I always thought that 50k quota include visas for family memembers. Are 50k quota only for the primary applicants? Or I did not interpret the data in the table correctly?
 
KingKong said:
When I looked at the table, I realized that the total visas issued, including family members are about 77k! I always thought that 50k quota include visas for family memembers. Are 50k quota only for the primary applicants? Or I did not interpret the data in the table correctly?
Click to expand...


You interpreted it incorrectly. The 77K are the people (selectees and their family members) that became current and submitted their forms. of those, many were denied or left on AP/Ready. Only 50770 got visas (although approcimately 2000 more got visas through adjustment of status.

So yes - they exceeded the 50K - but not by 27k. Only about 3k.
 
Thanks for all the effort you've been putting up Simon, it's kind of a relief to see my embassy in the top 10! :p

Speaking of embassies, I changed my original interview location when I submitted my DS-260; so is the change confirmed, or do I have to contact the new embassy or KCC? The reason I'm asking is because I know a guy who claims that his 2NL showed his appointment in the original embassy, even though he changed it in DS-260.

Another question; when should we expect the CEAC data for DV-2015 to become available?
 
FSW2015 said:
Thanks for all the effort you've been putting up Simon, it's kind of a relief to see my embassy in the top 10! :p

Speaking of embassies, I changed my original interview location when I submitted my DS-260; so is the change confirmed, or do I have to contact the new embassy or KCC? The reason I'm asking is because I know a guy who claims that his 2NL showed his appointment in the original embassy, even though he changed it in DS-260.

Another question; when should we expect the CEAC data for DV-2015 to become available?
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Since you have a long time before you are current the change in embassy location should be recognized. Changing 2015 it just before the scheduling would cause issues.

2015 CEAC data isn't in the system yet - I would hope it would be within a few weeks
 
Whats the dif between issue and ready?

Seems like my embassay has a low rejection rate of 1%..but then again the sample size isnt large enough
 
I was looking at the figures of the selectees and those issued with Visas in Nairobi and it makes me afraid,very afraid. The number of family members who got the visas is higher than the principal applicants. Actually,1552 principal applicants got the visas and the family was 2512....I wish there was a way of regulating so that the principal applicants benefit first otherwise there will be so many people locked out in the process who were however deserving equally. I hope am not harsh on this @Britsimon
 
McOmbija said:
I was looking at the figures of the selectees and those issued with Visas in Nairobi and it makes me afraid,very afraid. The number of family members who got the visas is higher than the principal applicants. Actually,1552 principal applicants got the visas and the family was 2512....I wish there was a way of regulating so that the principal applicants benefit first otherwise there will be so many people locked out in the process who were however deserving equally. I hope am not harsh on this @Britsimon
Click to expand...

You are misreading the numbers. The 1552 number is in the visas issued column. That is principals and there derivatives. The family number (2512) INCLUDES the principals. The difference is people that were refused etc - only 61% of the people were issued. In this forum we (the regulars that answer the questions) are picky about the answers being given to avoid people being in the other 39%.

And although your confusion led you to the wrong question, NO there is no way to limit the visas issued to principals - so the number of people before you is growing as people are getting married and having babies. That is the way the lottery process runs, as defined in the laws that control the lottery.
 
Britsimon said:
You are misreading the numbers. The 1552 number is in the visas issued column. That is principals and there derivatives. The family number (2512) INCLUDES the principals. The difference is people that were refused etc - only 61% of the people were issued. In this forum we (the regulars that answer the questions) are picky about the answers being given to avoid people being in the other 39%.

And although your confusion led you to the wrong question, NO there is no way to limit the visas issued to principals - so the number of people before you is growing as people are getting married and having babies. That is the way the lottery process runs, as defined in the laws that control the lottery.
Click to expand...
Got it right bro. I swear I read it the other way. But I must admit that there is a lot of good information here. Lucky enough, I have seen the number of friends in the forum from Kenya making it through. I can actually state that they are making it based on the useful information available here. There are things I did not know which i now know. I wish I had gotten the forum much earlier, I would have benefited a lot. But that said and done, with CN700**. I still think I will have a chance to benefit a lot....@Britsimon, you good with arithmetic man. I admire your analysis. and hope to be helpful as you are to many. By the way,can i engage you on something? I was just thinking that may be the fact that there might have been many people who filled the form and returned them to KCC being that there was no cost except for the internet,made the process slow? If that is so, do you think that this may as well in the final stages of preparation introduce many holes? I remember reading the blog on the holes theory; you wrote about this. I am just thinking that the response this time from selectees might be so high and that with the reading I have been doing, there are inevitable errors too in the process. May be you could enlighten us sir
 
McOmbija said:
Got it right bro. I swear I read it the other way. But I must admit that there is a lot of good information here. Lucky enough, I have seen the number of friends in the forum from Kenya making it through. I can actually state that they are making it based on the useful information available here. There are things I did not know which i now know. I wish I had gotten the forum much earlier, I would have benefited a lot. But that said and done, with CN700**. I still think I will have a chance to benefit a lot....@Britsimon, you good with arithmetic man. I admire your analysis. and hope to be helpful as you are to many. By the way,can i engage you on something? I was just thinking that may be the fact that there might have been many people who filled the form and returned them to KCC being that there was no cost except for the internet,made the process slow? If that is so, do you think that this may as well in the final stages of preparation introduce many holes? I remember reading the blog on the holes theory; you wrote about this. I am just thinking that the response this time from selectees might be so high and that with the reading I have been doing, there are inevitable errors too in the process. May be you could enlighten us sir
Click to expand...

It is cl;ear that putting the form online has caused delays in processing and so on for KCC and the embassies. However, it also reduced the cost of completing these forms to zero - and perhaps made it easier to apply. So - some people who would not have applied under the old process would perhaps have applied with the new process. However, those are the sort of people that will not show up for their interview because the medical and DV costs would be too high for them. So - we might see more READY cases (often, but not always, no shows). However, that is just speculation. There are more twists and turns yet to be revealed in this years DV lottery....
 
Britsimon said:
It is cl;ear that putting the form online has caused delays in processing and so on for KCC and the embassies. However, it also reduced the cost of completing these forms to zero - and perhaps made it easier to apply. So - some people who would not have applied under the old process would perhaps have applied with the new process. However, those are the sort of people that will not show up for their interview because the medical and DV costs would be too high for them. So - we might see more READY cases (often, but not always, no shows). However, that is just speculation. There are more twists and turns yet to be revealed in this years DV lottery....
Click to expand...
A wonderful insight. You looked at it as though my heart was with you.:):cool:. That is very true bro. I think his year may be very interesting.
 
Britsimon said:
You interpreted it incorrectly. The 77K are the people (selectees and their family members) that became current and submitted their forms. of those, many were denied or left on AP/Ready. Only 50770 got visas (although approcimately 2000 more got visas through adjustment of status.

So yes - they exceeded the 50K - but not by 27k. Only about 3k.
Click to expand...

How about the 5K NACARA visas? Aren't they counted here?
 
Riopadrao said:
How about the 5K NACARA visas? Aren't they counted here?
Click to expand...

When we talk about the Nacara visas we are talking about a pool of visas that were reserved for Nacara from the 55k allowance. However, we saw last year that the DVD program does indeed use some of the reserved visas - so in fact DVD used about 52.5k. The Ceac data did not include aos cases, hence the difference in numbers on the league table.
 
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