EB3 Worldwide finally moves past May 01, 2001

I do believe it's realistic to expect the dates to move to Jan 2002 before Oct.2006. I think they "reserved" a bit too large number for 245 cases, or the buerocracy and processing speed of 245 has been much lower than planned. In any case, there is probably a large number of unused visas that still needs to be allocated in this financial year, and to avoid wasting them, they'll move the priority dates faster than before. There just can't be that many world EB3 cases with such old priority dates.
 
so,,as it passed the hill,,why not a further movement this month,,,
it should become current in coming october???
 
Million dollar question

Hmmm... that would be too good.

My other question is, when the EB2 unused worldwide number, if any, it would be transferred to EB3 World ?

Ali_Sabri said:
will it become current by october??
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I am not sure if I can follow the concept of hills on April 2001. I don't think the fact that the cut-off dates have crossed April 2001 means the burden caused by the 245(i) applications have passed. Perhaps they are moving the dates a little, but 245(i) apps brewing at DOL may be coming soon...
 
"other worker category"

what is the other worker category. is it a part of EB3??


E. THE EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE “OTHER WORKER” CATEGORY BECOMES “UNAVAILABLE’ FOR JUNE

Continued heavy demand for numbers (particularly for adjustment of status cases at USCIS offices) will result in the 5,000 annual numerical limit being reached during the month of May. Therefore, it has been necessary to make the Employment Third preference “Other Worker” category “unavailable” for June, and it will remain so for the remainder of the fiscal year.
 
Rest of this fiscal year

marlon2006 said:
I am not sure if I can follow the concept of hills on April 2001. I don't think the fact that the cut-off dates have crossed April 2001 means the burden caused by the 245(i) applications have passed. Perhaps they are moving the dates a little, but 245(i) apps brewing at DOL may be coming soon...
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Marlon,

I will have to respectively disagree with you--at least for approvals between now and September 30.

Any 'flood' of 245(i) that will now come down the pipeline would not be approved before the end of this fiscal year. Even with USCIS working at their best rate, it takes 6 months to approve an I-485 application. Thus, any 245(i) labor approvals that are recent will not be completed by the USCIS this fiscal year anyway.

I agree however, that the October 2006 visa bulletin will regress back to at least May 1 2001. However, between now and then, I think (and I don't want to be too positive but I am cautiously optimistic) that we could see EB-3 world get well into 2002 or possibly even 2003.
 
245(i)

We do not know how many 245(i) cases have been approved at the labor stage. since there's no concurrent filing now, they will have to go thru I140 and then only file I485. So that might give 2001,2002 EB3 filers sometime to scrape through. But when the 245(i) cases hit the I485 stage, expect retrogression :-0). Man this looks like a India - Pakistan match. In this case whoever gets approved is a Last-ball-sixer-Miandad.
 
Why can't they file consurrently? Is there any change in LAW recently?

AGC4ME said:
We do not know how many 245(i) cases have been approved at the labor stage. since there's no concurrent filing now, they will have to go thru I140 and then only file I485. So that might give 2001,2002 EB3 filers sometime to scrape through. But when the 245(i) cases hit the I485 stage, expect retrogression :-0). Man this looks like a India - Pakistan match. In this case whoever gets approved is a Last-ball-sixer-Miandad.
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Let's see if I understand: even if the 245(i) LC cases get approved by the thousands between June-September and lawyers thirsty for money have the paperwork ready to file the I-140+I-485, you are saying that would not justify the aggressive cut-off dates because visa numbers couldn't be allocated anyway. Perhaps that is right. If dates don't advance, perhaps USCIS has other motives to keep it that way.




I will have to respectively disagree with you--at least for approvals between now and September 30.

Any 'flood' of 245(i) that will now come down the pipeline would not be approved before the end of this fiscal year. Even with USCIS working at their best rate, it takes 6 months to approve an I-485 application. Thus, any 245(i) labor approvals that are recent will not be completed by the USCIS this fiscal year anyway.

I agree however, that the October 2006 visa bulletin will regress back to at least May 1 2001. However, between now and then, I think (and I don't want to be too positive but I am cautiously optimistic) that we could see EB-3 world get well into 2002 or possibly even 2003.[/QUOTE]
 
potter said:
yes, April 2001 was a hill becuase of 245I cases. Let's hope some faster movement on Eb3 in following months.
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Not in here were most of the people are Indians with date 08APR01 the hill still has long way to go.
 
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Marlon

marlon2006 said:
Let's see if I understand: even if the 245(i) LC cases get approved by the thousands between June-September and lawyers thirsty for money have the paperwork ready to file the I-140+I-485, you are saying that would not justify the aggressive cut-off dates because visa numbers couldn't be allocated anyway. Perhaps that is right. If dates don't advance, perhaps USCIS has other motives to keep it that way.
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Basically, yeah, that is my thought. The reality is that any labor approved right now will not be able to have a greencard by the end of September and thus priority dates will move to reflect "approvable cases" between now and the end of the fiscal year. I do not believe the 'conspiracy theories' floating around that the USCIS/DOS are going to waste a bunch of visa numbers this year by purposely holding back dates, and thus I predect that EB-3 world should see dates advance in some fashion until October. How far--I don't know--I'm speculating at least a year to 18 months though.

As I previously stated however, I believe once October hits, the dates will regress back and likely stay that way for a good year or two. I previously posted my calculations for EB-3 world 245(i) labor certifications in another thread. I calculated that there will be approximately 65,000 EB-3 world visa numbers used for 245(i) including dependents. That is about a 2 year allocation, which would put us into 2008 before we see movement past April 2001 again.

At this point, I'm not getting my hopes up, but I am cautiously optimistic (My PD is March 2002).
 
Hello blondhenge, I am not sure whether what I heard is necessarily a conspiracy theory, but it may be that USCIS is holding back such aggressive cut-off dates to appear as they meet the goal of processing cases within 6 months or less. That's the part I don't know and if that's the case, they may hold the cut-off date no matter what. Just a thought, I hope that is not case but since USCIS operates in secrecy, who knows.

blondhenge said:
Basically, yeah, that is my thought. The reality is that any labor approved right now will not be able to have a greencard by the end of September and thus priority dates will move to reflect "approvable cases" between now and the end of the fiscal year. I do not believe the 'conspiracy theories' floating around that the USCIS/DOS are going to waste a bunch of visa numbers this year by purposely holding back dates, and thus I predect that EB-3 world should see dates advance in some fashion until October. How far--I don't know--I'm speculating at least a year to 18 months though.

As I previously stated however, I believe once October hits, the dates will regress back and likely stay that way for a good year or two. I previously posted my calculations for EB-3 world 245(i) labor certifications in another thread. I calculated that there will be approximately 65,000 EB-3 world visa numbers used for 245(i) including dependents. That is about a 2 year allocation, which would put us into 2008 before we see movement past April 2001 again.

At this point, I'm not getting my hopes up, but I am cautiously optimistic (My PD is March 2002).
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Agreed ..

blondhenge said:
Basically, yeah, that is my thought. The reality is that any labor approved right now will not be able to have a greencard by the end of September and thus priority dates will move to reflect "approvable cases" between now and the end of the fiscal year. I do not believe the 'conspiracy theories' floating around that the USCIS/DOS are going to waste a bunch of visa numbers this year by purposely holding back dates, and thus I predect that EB-3 world should see dates advance in some fashion until October. How far--I don't know--I'm speculating at least a year to 18 months though.

As I previously stated however, I believe once October hits, the dates will regress back and likely stay that way for a good year or two. I previously posted my calculations for EB-3 world 245(i) labor certifications in another thread. I calculated that there will be approximately 65,000 EB-3 world visa numbers used for 245(i) including dependents. That is about a 2 year allocation, which would put us into 2008 before we see movement past April 2001 again.

At this point, I'm not getting my hopes up, but I am cautiously optimistic (My PD is March 2002).
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blondhenge,

I totally agree with your line of thinking. I have always maintained that this retrogression may be based totally on speculation and Junes visa bulletin kind of proves that the DOS and USCIS are not seeing to many 245is that they expected to see and are slowly moving the dates. This is not to say that 245is will not eventually flood the system but it has not happened yet and is unlikely to happen before Oct 06.

I just hope that better sense prevails and the DOS moves the dates more quickly in the remaining three bulletins this year. India EB3 is still struggling. If WW can move past April 01 and into July 01 then India can surely move past April 01. Only a fraction of 245is are from India.

As for conspiracy theories. I am always the first to think of all possibilities when it comes to the DOS and USCIS. I would not be surprised if all this retrogression was actually done to clean house before 245is hit. The USCIS messed up the system over the past few years and may well be using this retro to correct their errors. They are now realising that they overdid it and are slowly correcting the dates. Anything is possible with these stupid agencies and their ridiculous plans.

regards,

saras
 
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Going Forward

saras76 said:
blondhenge,

I totally agree with your line of thinking. I have always maintained that this retrogression may be based totally on speculation and Junes visa bulletin kind of proves that the DOS and USCIS are not seeing to many 245is that they expected to see and are slowly moving the dates. This is not to say that 245is will not eventually flood the system but it has not happened yet and is unlikely to happen before Oct 06.

I just hope that better sense prevails and the DOS moves the dates more quickly in the remaining three bulletins this year. India EB3 is still struggling. If WW can move past April 01 and into July 01 then India can surely move past April 01. Only a fraction of 245is are from India.

As for conspiracy theories. I am always the first to think of all possibilities when it comes to the DOS and USCIS. I would not be surprised if all this retrogression was actually done to clean house before 245is hit. The USCIS messed up the system over the past few years and may well be using this retro to correct their errors. They are now realising that they overdid it and are slowly correcting the dates. Anything is possible with these stupid agencies and their ridiculous plans.

regards,

saras
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I recall in the September 2005 bullentin (when EB-3 was completely unavailable) that they indicated that they expected EB-3 world to be current in October, with potential retrogression starting in December. Assuming they knew the caseload at the time, one could take this a step further and conclude that indeed, very few EB-3 visa numbers have been used so far during this fiscal year since hardly anybody has been eligible to file for EB-3 since June of 2005.

If that is truly the case, then I would not be surprised to see 6 month to 1 year advances in Eb-3 world for the next few months, then retrogress when the October 2006 bulletin is issued in anticipatation of the 245(i) flood. I continue to contend that currently approved 245(i) cases will not have an effect on this year's visa numbers, as it is too late in the year to process an entire I-485 application. Furthermore, with the pending end of concurrent I-140/485 filing, this will slow down the approval process even further.

I don't want to be too optimistic, but I'm currently right at the end of my process--I opted for consular processing, and I have been 'documentarily qualified' already--I'm just waiting for the visa number to be assigned--March 2002 PD. I have felt for several months now that I would get my greencard before the end of this fiscal year. I still feel that way. I guess we will see over the next few months.
 
Usage has been low ..

blondhenge said:
I recall in the September 2005 bullentin (when EB-3 was completely unavailable) that they indicated that they expected EB-3 world to be current in October, with potential retrogression starting in December. Assuming they knew the caseload at the time, one could take this a step further and conclude that indeed, very few EB-3 visa numbers have been used so far during this fiscal year since hardly anybody has been eligible to file for EB-3 since June of 2005.

If that is truly the case, then I would not be surprised to see 6 month to 1 year advances in Eb-3 world for the next few months, then retrogress when the October 2006 bulletin is issued in anticipatation of the 245(i) flood. I continue to contend that currently approved 245(i) cases will not have an effect on this year's visa numbers, as it is too late in the year to process an entire I-485 application. Furthermore, with the pending end of concurrent I-140/485 filing, this will slow down the approval process even further.

I don't want to be too optimistic, but I'm currently right at the end of my process--I opted for consular processing, and I have been 'documentarily qualified' already--I'm just waiting for the visa number to be assigned--March 2002 PD. I have felt for several months now that I would get my greencard before the end of this fiscal year. I still feel that way. I guess we will see over the next few months.
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blonhenge,

There is no doubt that in the absence of 245i's, EB3 visa utilization has been extremely low since June 2005. The DOS and USCIS have used the 245i cases as an excuse for extreme retrogression. Just think of all the things they have achieved thru retro, here is a list ..

1. Implemented FIFO system. In the past few years there was no FIFO. People with 03 PDs were getting GCs while 99-00 PDs were stilll stuck. Retro has solved this problem.

2. Literally stopped almost everyone from filing by sending the dates way back. This enabled them to free up some workforce to clean up older cases.

3. With fast PERM approvals and super fast 140 approvals they realized that the system would collapse if they did not prevent people from filing. Retro took care of that.

4. During this retro period they have reviewed several things and are making changes. Labor substitution laws are being reviewed during Retro and it will probably be banned. This is good because they are preventing labor subs thru retro. The bi-specilization move of moving ALL EB cases to TSC and NSC could not have been achieved if Retro was not in place. They brought the process to a halt in order to make these sweeping changes.

5. Lastly, thru retro they ensured that they would not be blind sighted by 245is. Although 245is have not yet flooded the system they took extra precautions thru extreme retro.

My only fear is that the DOS and USCIS will not move the dates quickly and tons of unused visa numbers will get wasted if not used by Oct 06. This will be a total calamity but one that cannot be ruled out. Unless they move the dates by atleast 6 months to a year for almost all categories in EB3 most of the Eb3 visas for 06 will get wasted because unused visas can't be carried over to the next fiscal year.

regards,

saras
 
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I would believe the most of the 245(i) cases fall behind the catagory of EB3(2), as EB3(1) requires min BS degree. As EB3(2) is now Unavailabe from June 06 Bulletin, I have a feeling that EB3(1) for worldwide catagory may take its speed other than normal.

Once the USCIS witness the percentage of application under EB3(1) users file, then if it is very low than expected, DHS next move would be moving the dates quickly otherwise it will stand still, if USCIS gets more than expected application (bear that in mind that when labor gets cleared as the labor-sub is too come in play), it is really hard to predict DHS to see what percentage of application will be filed.

To my understanding, only few states that fail to weigh the 245(i) burden left behind, now I know a guy who fall under 245(I) who filed from Atlanta, already got his GC. Only few states have clog, not all of them. Still the figures released last time seems to be huge, not sure if 2001 filers are still waiting as many must have left country or had other means of getting their labor cleared.
 
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