EB3 doomed, EB2 Soon !! News to come this week...

D

dasarihp_newid

Registered Users (C)
Is this ever going to end ?? why so indifference towards professional category ?? Nurses are being treated better than us ..
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June 13, 2005
Source: http://www.shusterman.com

Until January 1, 2005, all of the employment based visa numbers had been current for years.

Suddenly, EB-3 for India, China and the Philippines backed-up three years at the beginning of the year. A couple of months later, the unskilled worker category backed up four years.

According to the state department, the CIS is approving EB adjustment of status applications at such a rapid pace (30,000/month) that things are going to get worse this summer, a lot worse.

The worldwide EB-3 category could become "Unavailable" starting July or August, while EB-2 for China and India could retrogress significantly.

The July 2005 Visa Bulletin will be issued this week, perhaps today or tomorrow, and this could be the most important news affecting employment-based immigration in many years.
 
another source..

http://immigration.about.com/b/a/173693.htm

EB-3 Visa Numbers Unavailable Soon

Applicants for the EB-3 visa category will most likely have to hold on to their applications sometime this summer. The USCIS is approving approximately 30,000 applications per month, which will likely lead to a temporary freeze of EB-3 approvals.The EB-3 category is for applicants that are

Aliens with at least two years of experience as skilled workers;
Professionals with a baccalaureate degree; and
Other workers with less than two years experience, such as an unskilled worker who can perform labor for which qualified workers are not available in the United States.

When the temporary suspension of approvals happens, the USCIS and the State Department won't approve any green card applications until Ocober 1, 2005, with the exception of registered nurses, physical therapists and their families.
 
dasarihp_newid said:
Is this ever going to end ?? why so indifference towards professional category ?? Nurses are being treated better than us ..
=================================================
June 13, 2005
Source: http://www.shusterman.com

Until January 1, 2005, all of the employment based visa numbers had been current for years.

Suddenly, EB-3 for India, China and the Philippines backed-up three years at the beginning of the year. A couple of months later, the unskilled worker category backed up four years.

According to the state department, the CIS is approving EB adjustment of status applications at such a rapid pace (30,000/month) that things are going to get worse this summer, a lot worse.

The worldwide EB-3 category could become "Unavailable" starting July or August, while EB-2 for China and India could retrogress significantly.

The July 2005 Visa Bulletin will be issued this week, perhaps today or tomorrow, and this could be the most important news affecting employment-based immigration in many years.
Click to expand...

One thing I fail to understand is that if the CIS is approving the applications at such a pace, why would it make the things worse? Since there is a fixed numbers of visa available, how does it matter if they consume it fast or slow? Why should it retrogress EB3 further?
 
ak_new_member said:
One thing I fail to understand is that if the CIS is approving the applications at such a pace, why would it make the things worse? Since there is a fixed numbers of visa available, how does it matter if they consume it fast or slow? Why should it retrogress EB3 further?
Click to expand...
OK -- Let me try to explain from what I know ...

there is an annual per-country quota on number of immigrant visas that can be approved in a year (say Q)
USCIS does not do anything special to make sure that this quota is used up evenly over the year ... so its not like USCIS uses only Q/4 every quarter.
So it may happen (due to the rapid(duh !) pace of approvals), that the quota Q is exhausted in 3 qtrs ... so for the 4th qtr, its effectively frozen (no numbers available)
That's why they'll freeze things till Oct 1 (when the new USCIS year begins).

To kind of streamline this, the state dept establishes cut-off dates based on a predicted usage pattern by USCIS (so they are saying something like, if USCIS uses X numbers per month, then we can set the cutoff to yyyy date) ... so if USCIS starts to use way more than the expected "X" per month, the the dates have to retrogress further ...

Makes sense ?
 
ak_new_member said:
One thing I fail to understand is that if the CIS is approving the applications at such a pace, why would it make the things worse? Since there is a fixed numbers of visa available, how does it matter if they consume it fast or slow? Why should it retrogress EB3 further?
Click to expand...
Because DOS allocates visa number right before approval, not when file was received by USCIS.
 
Well my PD is june 3,2002 ... and to be honest i dont think the PD will move much max to a month (thats being very optimistic)

seriously the more i read the verbage of DOS it makes me believe that for july bulletin there will be hardly any movement .

it really sucks !!!!!
 
Hi guys,

I know it's getting worse with the retrogression on PD. Does anyone have any idea how fast the PD will move, let's say in one year?

At the same time, let's enjoy life while we can, life is too short to wasting our time on this kind of BS.

EB3, China
PD-Apr 1st, 2003.
I-140/I-485 RD 10/16/2003.
I-140 AD: 12/1/04.
 
Ever since I have applied my 485, in Aug 03, my emotions are running high and low like a rollercoaster.

First the infamous :eek: Pilot processing consumed many visas. Some extremely lucky ones got approvals.

Then came the :mad: ugly retrogression in Jan 05.

As we are coming with the terms of this dirty retrogression, we are starting to hear about the second :mad: retrogression which would be uglier than the previous one.

Sometimes I feel :confused: , is GC of this country is worth to take such pain?
 
Hi max2k1,
I really appreciate your feedback . But, what I was told that every country gets allocated certain number of Visas. Now, since the immigrants from India, China are lot more compared to the other countries so their Visa numbers are over and hence comes rethrogression.
What I was wondering that why cant we use the visa numbers that go unused by other countries. I think there was also a bill introduced but I am not sure what happened to it. I think our situation will only inprove if that bill is passed. The other hope is what I said earlier that the number of applicants for 2003-2004 should be substantially less than that of 2001-2002. More people flooded in because of IT boom in 2001-2002 . After that things eased and so there should be lot fewer applicants for 2003-2004.
Also, now since PERM is introduced so they cannot have the bottleneck situation for long time. I mean, how long can they have thousands of people lined up with their Labors cleared and still could not apply for 140/485. I mean what would they achieve with all that .
Personally I am very optimistic and after seeing the rapid 140 approvals I think they have something in mind,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,something good for us may be !!

What do you guys say ??
 
The Visa Bulletin is out and it looks like we all have to wait until Oct 2005 for visa numbers

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2539.html

All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CH IN ME PH
Employment-Based
1st C C C C C
2nd C C C C C
3rd U U U U U
Schedule A Workers C C C C C
Other Workers U U U U U
4th C C C C C
Certain Religious Workers C C C C C
5th C C C C C
Targeted Employment Areas/Regional Centers C C C C C
 
- As far as the country favouring nurses now, its all a matter of supply and demand.
- Immigration reform\problem-solution has mostly been reactive than proactive.

In that vein, i feel that once things get into unavailable mode\ backlogged considerably, then more people (read senators) will take notice, they MAY come up with a band-aid fix if there is enough noise. Thinking about it, companies know that the employee will have to stick around so why would they lobby on doing something favourable. The companies may have the additional cost of H1 renewals after 6 year period but thats nothing compared to the fact that the employee is bonded to the company.

Kennedy-McCain bill holds some hope for us retrogressed folks, but it is just a small mention in their bill. we dont know if and when it will be passed.
 
Dependent of EB3

Under which category does the dependent of the EB3 fall? The primary (EB3) has been approved on 05/17 but the dependent has received an RFE.
 
AnotherDesi5 said:
Under which category does the dependent of the EB3 fall? The primary (EB3) has been approved on 05/17 but the dependent has received an RFE.
Click to expand...
Dependent "inherits" the category from the primary -- so its EB3 in this case.
 
Guys, the bigger picture is for USCIS to avoid backlogs and attain 6 month processing on every form including I-485 by end of 2006 quarter . So if you think of PD, PD is a tool by which they will avoid I-485 to queue further since you can't file for it until ur PD becomes eligible to file I-485 and also can't approve it till your PD becomes eligible. Hence they will clear the current I-485s in their queues (with the amt permitted by law) and simulaneously bring down the backlogs. Hence theortically on paper they will show finally at end of 2006 they are efficient. Though they aren't. :)
 
Note that priority dates were current for around 3 - years (2001-4), This cycle has happened in the past with people having to wait for dates to be current & suddenly dates were current for all .
 
kash_k5 said:
Note that priority dates were current for around 3 - years (2001-4), This cycle has happened in the past with people having to wait for dates to be current & suddenly dates were current for all .
Click to expand...
But the previous cycle (~2000-2001) was due to a sequence of (fortunate) events and am not sure if it can happen again -- I have a bad feeling about the current retrogression .... it might go on for longer than what we expect.
 
History of the Movement of Priority Dates in 2000 / 2001

The last time there was a retrogression of employment-based immigrant visas was in 2000 / 2001. A review of the history of the movement of the priority dates in 2000 / 2001, published by the U.S. Department of State (DOS) in the monthly Visa Bulletins, provides the length of backlogs in the past and may provide some valuable lessons for us. We at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy have summarized past retrogressions by month in 2000 and 2001 in the chart below for MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers.
Visa Bulletin History Of Last Retrogression

INDIA CHINA PHILIPPINES
EB2 EB3 EB2 EB3 EB2 EB3
2000
Mar C C C C C C
Apr n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
May 01 Apr 99 01 Feb 97 01 Jul 97 01 Jan 97 C C
Jun 01 Jun 99 01 Feb 97 01 Sep 97 01 Jan 97 C C
Jul 01 Aug 99 01 Feb 97 01 Jan 98 15 Feb 97 C C
Aug 15 Sep 99 01 Feb 97 15 Apr 98 01 Jun 97 C C
Sep 01 Nov 99 08 Feb 97 01 Mar 99 01 Mar 98 C C
Oct 01 Nov 99 08 Feb 97 08 Mar 99 15 Mar 98 C C
Nov 01 Nov 99 15 Feb 97 08 Mar 99 15 Mar 98 C C
Dec 01 Jan 00 08 Mar 97 01 Jun 99 15 Apr 98 C C
2001
Jan 08 Jan 00 22 Mar 97 01 Aug 99 01 Jun 98 C C
Feb 01 Apr 00 01 May 97 01 Nov 99 15 Aug 98 C C
Mar 15 Jul 00 01 Sep 97 15 Mar 00 01 Jan 99 C C
Apr 01 Nov 00 01 Feb 98 01 Sep 00 01 Jun 99 C C
May C 01 Jul 98 C 01 Jan 00 C C
Jun C 01 Jan 99 C 01 Aug 00 C C
Jul * C C C C C C

* We note that, following the last retrogression, the priority dates became current (indicated by the letter "C") for all categories and countries in July 2001 and remained so through December 2004.

The priority dates only became current in July 2001 because of certain provisions in the AC21 law that allowed for the reallocation of about 50,000 unused immigrant visa numbers regardless of a person's country of origin. Therefore, when drawing any conclusions about the likely duration of the retrogression, this important factor must be taken into account. There is a movement towards requesting similar reallocation this time around, which would certainly provide much- needed relief. We always recommend, however, planning for the worst, while hoping for the best.

Source: http://www.murthy.com/mb_pdf/012105_P.html
 
kash_k5 said:
Note that priority dates were current for around 3 - years (2001-4), This cycle has happened in the past with people having to wait for dates to be current & suddenly dates were current for all .
Click to expand...
With the econmoy collapsing, there were less new h1bs and many existing h1bs who were laid off went back home. Also companies were reluctant to file labor for a new GC with several rounds of layoffs happening and all this resulted in the availability of new visa numbers.
But with economy picking up, many Indian companies hiring consultants and processing their GCs in return for low wages ;-) and of course the village idiot's amnesty to illegal immigrants in all has consumed more immigrant visa numbers.
I see less of a chance of the dates becoming CUrrent anytime soon (3-5 years?).. Or if most ppl think this system stinks and go to more efficient immigration countries like Canada, Australia etc..
And of course with aging, lazy USCIS workers (NSC esp) things will perhaps become more inefficient.. :rolleyes: </EndVenting>
 
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