EB2 visa dates prediction for current fiscal yr...

R

ranGC

Registered Users (C)
Going by Trackitt.com information i.e the approvals and numbers of cases for EB2 prior to Jan 2003, whats the prediction for visa bulletin dates to again move further to atleast Jan 2003? When will it happen this fiscal yr or will it happen in the next fiscal yr for that move to happen?

From what I've seen in Trackitt, there is no case b4 jan 2000 for EB2, so Jan2008 visa bulletin, doesn't make any sense. Then them stating that in few months the dates are going to be unavailable, means that dates won't move to Jan 2003 this fiscal yr. With Jan 2000 dates as cut off dates, the retrogression is atleast 8yrs behind, thats almost like family based visas.

Its quite depressing!!!!!
 
With applicants constantly moving from EB3 to EB2, there is no way one can predict the demand for EB2. EB2-IN was set to Jan 2003 for at least 7 months in the last fiscal year until May 2007. Seeing less demand and more available visas, DOS moved the dates forward to Apr 2004 in June 2007. With those kind of dates, everyone of us assumed EB2-IN was set to have good times. Who knew then that EB2-IN will have demand from as early as 2000 in FY 08!!

My point is, until there are EB3s in 01/02/03/04 and until the process of moving from EB3 to EB2 continues, there are few reasonable ways to predict demand for EB2. All we can do
1) Invoke AC21
2) Hope for the best
 
But with EB2 dates worse than EB3, I think the trend from EB3--> EB2 would pretty much stop. And I am sure eb3/eb2 filers with old priority dates such as jan 2000-jan 2004 mst've already filed their I-485 in july 2007. The trend for Eb3 to EB2 would be more with say post 2004 filers say like 2005/2006 filers.
 
ranGC said:
Going by Trackitt.com information i.e the approvals and numbers of cases for EB2 prior to Jan 2003, whats the prediction for visa bulletin dates to again move further to atleast Jan 2003? When will it happen this fiscal yr or will it happen in the next fiscal yr for that move to happen?

From what I've seen in Trackitt, there is no case b4 jan 2000 for EB2, so Jan2008 visa bulletin, doesn't make any sense. Then them stating that in few months the dates are going to be unavailable, means that dates won't move to Jan 2003 this fiscal yr. With Jan 2000 dates as cut off dates, the retrogression is atleast 8yrs behind, thats almost like family based visas.

Its quite depressing!!!!!
Click to expand...

Trackitt only has a very, very small number of cases when compared to the whole pie. Even of the cases logged in there, there is no guarantee that there is an equal representation of cases by type, date, country etc.

It will only help you to anticipate action on your case if you find another with similar dates as yours on that site.
 
chitti007 said:
Trackitt only has a very, very small number of cases when compared to the whole pie. Even of the cases logged in there, there is no guarantee that there is an equal representation of cases by type, date, country etc.

It will only help you to anticipate action on your case if you find another with similar dates as yours on that site.
Click to expand...
I would again say move the dates so far back as 1998. and then keep it there until last quarter of fy08. due to the possibility of numbers wastage, they will make it all current just like they did in july VB fiasco.
 
The only reason DOS moves dates back is - when they have no clue....and they just want to close the doors for all....

That's what happened for EB2-IND .....they had monthly allotments for EB2-IND = (10,000 / 3) - 3333 / 12 months = 300 each month for EB2-IND....

it looks like on Nov 8th (when they published the Visa Bulletin for December) USCIS already exhausted ....40% of 3333 = 1300 numbers from Sep/Oct (that's almost 4 months of quota)....and
Surprisingly - it looks like from Nov 8th to Nov 30th....still lot of the quota might have gotten used...up.....since the bulletin was not effective...until Dec 1....

Come Dec 8th (when they released Jan bulletin), they realized the pace at which the quota is going up.....My guess is over 60-70% got used up....as of Dec 8th....

But now the funny thing is - this new visa bulletin is not effective until Jan 1st.....My guess they are estimating that the remaining quota -20-30% might get used up in these 3 weeks from Dec 8th to Dec 30th....

So, come Jan 8th....they may have to declare the quota Unavailable for FEB Visa Bulletin....hence, their guidance...

Worst case, if it does not get used up...EB2-IND - looks like there is very little leftover....

The next thing that might get affected is EB3-IND - My EB3-IND dates should go back.....that means as USCIS said the EB2-IND quota is getting used up too fast...
 
ranGC said:
But with EB2 dates worse than EB3, I think the trend from EB3--> EB2 would pretty much stop. And I am sure eb3/eb2 filers with old priority dates such as jan 2000-jan 2004 mst've already filed their I-485 in july 2007. The trend for Eb3 to EB2 would be more with say post 2004 filers say like 2005/2006 filers.
Click to expand...

Correct many 2005/2006/2007 EB2 filers may had another LC application pending from BECs (either original or substitution) and the last phase of these approvals together with additional I-140s 'promoted' these cases to very early EB2 priority dates.
 
your analysis is right on the money. had USCIS not opened the PD's for EB2 India at April 2004 back in October the retrogression wouldn't be so bad. There are so many freakening EB2 applications to approve even from the 2003 PD that I didn't see the logic of opening with a April 2004 date back in October.

Well its too late now. EB2 India will become U by March VB and stay like that till July when unassigned visa numbers from other countries will filter to EB2 India and China.
banta4gc said:
The only reason DOS moves dates back is - when they have no clue....and they just want to close the doors for all....

That's what happened for EB2-IND .....they had monthly allotments for EB2-IND = (10,000 / 3) - 3333 / 12 months = 300 each month for EB2-IND....

it looks like on Nov 8th (when they published the Visa Bulletin for December) USCIS already exhausted ....40% of 3333 = 1300 numbers from Sep/Oct (that's almost 4 months of quota)....and
Surprisingly - it looks like from Nov 8th to Nov 30th....still lot of the quota might have gotten used...up.....since the bulletin was not effective...until Dec 1....

Come Dec 8th (when they released Jan bulletin), they realized the pace at which the quota is going up.....My guess is over 60-70% got used up....as of Dec 8th....

But now the funny thing is - this new visa bulletin is not effective until Jan 1st.....My guess they are estimating that the remaining quota -20-30% might get used up in these 3 weeks from Dec 8th to Dec 30th....

So, come Jan 8th....they may have to declare the quota Unavailable for FEB Visa Bulletin....hence, their guidance...

Worst case, if it does not get used up...EB2-IND - looks like there is very little leftover....

The next thing that might get affected is EB3-IND - My EB3-IND dates should go back.....that means as USCIS said the EB2-IND quota is getting used up too fast...
Click to expand...
 
I see your point. Why open the FY with pd moved so far ahead of 2003 when lot of cases in 2003 were still to be approved?
Perhaps they did not want to make the mistake they did last year. In FY07, the dates hovered around 2003 for a long time. Demand still did not materialize. This led to fiasco vb of july. So, this time, they are not going to make that mistake; just make it U by the middle of FY rather than making current in the last quarter of FY.
nishokie said:
your analysis is right on the money. had USCIS not opened the PD's for EB2 India at April 2004 back in October the retrogression wouldn't be so bad. There are so many freakening EB2 applications to approve even from the 2003 PD that I didn't see the logic of opening with a April 2004 date back in October.

Well its too late now. EB2 India will become U by March VB and stay like that till July when unassigned visa numbers from other countries will filter to EB2 India and China.
Click to expand...
 
i wish they had released the PD's (by 6 months starting at Jan.2002) each month this FY so that they could have had a better gauge on many applications will get used up.


tusharvk said:
I see your point. Why open the FY with pd moved so far ahead of 2003 when lot of cases in 2003 were still to be approved?
Perhaps they did not want to make the mistake they did last year. In FY07, the dates hovered around 2003 for a long time. Demand still did not materialize. This led to fiasco vb of july. So, this time, they are not going to make that mistake; just make it U by the middle of FY rather than making current in the last quarter of FY.
Click to expand...
 
According to my understanding, to change from EB3 to EB2 you need to file for labor under PERM all over again. Say if ppl from BEC wanted to shift from EB3 to EB2, they had to refile again in perm. And to have their old priority dates they had to file I-140 with their old labor first and if approved could port their PD, use it while filing the new I-140 after the perm. This whole process would take some time, both process can't be done concurrently, because you can't have two labors filed for the same person from same company. So BEC ppl going thru whole of it sounds crazy. The other way of retaining old PDs and shifting from EB3 to EB2 was withdrawing cases from BEC and refiling them under perm, and if approved they could retain the PD's. And since PERM was quite new, most of the lawyers advised against it. So, the visa number shortage for EB2 category can't be because of fence hoppers, even if there are filers like that, it must be few in nos.


manwithnoname said:
Correct many 2005/2006/2007 EB2 filers may had another LC application pending from BECs (either original or substitution) and the last phase of these approvals together with additional I-140s 'promoted' these cases to very early EB2 priority dates.
Click to expand...
 
tusharvk, why would say that, do you know there are so many ppl with PD's as back as 2001-2002, who don't even have the EAD facility and thet look fwd to movement in dates each month. I am sure you must one of the recent filers, who wasn't lucky enough to scrape in during the July 2007 fiasco, so you must be counting for such a fiasco again, so it becomes a miracle to you.


QUOTE=tusharvk;1836953]I would again say move the dates so far back as 1998. and then keep it there until last quarter of fy08. due to the possibility of numbers wastage, they will make it all current just like they did in july VB fiasco.[/QUOTE]
 
well sir. neither do I have the EAD.
I missed the boat in july07 by a whisker.
But how come there weren't many ppl (before 2003) for the first two calendar quarters of this year and suddenly there are so many now.
ranGC said:
tusharvk, why would say that, do you know there are so many ppl with PD's as back as 2001-2002, who don't even have the EAD facility and thet look fwd to movement in dates each month. I am sure you must one of the recent filers, who wasn't lucky enough to scrape in during the July 2007 fiasco, so you must be counting for such a fiasco again, so it becomes a miracle to you.


QUOTE=tusharvk;1836953]I would again say move the dates so far back as 1998. and then keep it there until last quarter of fy08. due to the possibility of numbers wastage, they will make it all current just like they did in july VB fiasco.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
just in case if you didn't know that the BEC just approved close to 40K labor certifications in the last 4-5 months with older PD's. there are at least 10 people in my company EB2/3 from Oct.2001 - Jan.2003 PD from India who got their labor certifications approved in the last 5 months. These are the guys who filed during the July VB fiasco and some in October/November.

i feel really bad for a close friend of mine who still doesn't have an approved labor filed in Jan.2002. his case is under audit.

ranGC said:
tusharvk, why would say that, do you know there are so many ppl with PD's as back as 2001-2002, who don't even have the EAD facility and thet look fwd to movement in dates each month. I am sure you must one of the recent filers, who wasn't lucky enough to scrape in during the July 2007 fiasco, so you must be counting for such a fiasco again, so it becomes a miracle to you.


QUOTE=tusharvk;1836953]I would again say move the dates so far back as 1998. and then keep it there until last quarter of fy08. due to the possibility of numbers wastage, they will make it all current just like they did in july VB fiasco.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
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Rightly thought so...but instead of wishing for a disaster of another July 2007 like fiasco, instead why can't you just wish that your dates become current!!!!! Just so that such fiasco would do you good, and since in no way your dates are going to be current in next few yrs you wish/want the visa dates to become unavailable for everybody!!! What a CREEP!!!!!


tusharvk said:
well sir. neither do I have the EAD.
I missed the boat in july07 by a whisker.
But how come there weren't many ppl (before 2003) for the first two calendar quarters of this year and suddenly there are so many now.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
tusharvk said:
I would again say move the dates so far back as 1998. and then keep it there until last quarter of fy08. due to the possibility of numbers wastage, they will make it all current just like they did in july VB fiasco.
Click to expand...

I would rather prefer if they kept everybody current so everyone can file for AOS after 140 approval, but then they process based on PriorityDate and then ReceptDate.

If they move the date back to 1998 only to make it current in the last quarter of the fiscal year, unless they have proper controls, some lucky guys from 2007/2008 will get approved, where as some unlucky persons with old dates will keep rotting.
Mind you this is for no fault of the earlier filers. Perhaps their applications need more scrutiny, but if USCIS has the option to process another application that does not need as much scrutiny, guess which one will they process to pad their yearly numbers?

This is important because, I read on these forums that the contractors that USCIS hires to process the applications get paid by the number of applications they process. If that is the case, if no strict guidelines are specified and followed (i.e. PD, RD) they might end up processing easy 2007/2008 cases to make more $$.
 
I know my dates are not going to be current soon.
I wished for dos to be conservative. Being conservative for them means dates will move back to late 90s for EB2 IN. If their conservativeness helps me in the last quarter, that is just a side benefit.
It is a reality for FY08 that the dates are going to be U soon. Let us face it.
ranGC said:
Rightly thought so...but instead of wishing for a disaster of another July 2007 like fiasco, instead why can't you just wish that your dates become current!!!!! Just so that such fiasco would do you good, and since in no way your dates are going to be current in next few yrs you wish/want the visa dates to become unavailable for everybody!!! What a CREEP!!!!!
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
Yup...so very right, the visas are going to unavailable soon, but that doesn't mean July 2007 fiasco would be repeated, they did see what it amounted too...so don't be too very hopeful!!!


tusharvk said:
I know my dates are not going to be current soon.
I wished for dos to be conservative. Being conservative for them means dates will move back to late 90s for EB2 IN. If their conservativeness helps me in the last quarter, that is just a side benefit.
It is a reality for FY08 that the dates are going to be U soon. Let us face it.
Click to expand...
[/QUOTE]
 
ranGC said:
Yup...so very right, the visas are going to unavailable soon, but that doesn't mean July 2007 fiasco would be repeated, they did see what it amounted too...so don't be too very hopeful!!!
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[/QUOTE]

dude, this is ridiculous. you are getting mad at the wrong person.
 
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