EB I-485 proressing observation - new angle.

V

varanasi

Registered Users (C)
Guys,

I have been closely watching Kashmir's data on I-485 approvals and I figured these statistics include non EB + EB application. If I undestand correctly, all the EB applications require I-140 applications be filed before or concurrent with I-485!! If you look at the total no of I-140 applications filed in 2002
they are just 14000 (approximately). That means the no of EB I-485 applications can't be more than 14000 (fourteen thousand)!!

Now if you believe that our law suite indeed has been putting pressure on USCIS and therefore they are hurriedly working on EB cases, then I would
guestimate that they are indeed making huge progress.

For example...
If you take up the Jan 2002 EB I-485 cases, they are total 1484 (= as many I-140's based on immigrationwatch.com data). The total no of I-485 cases
approved for Jan 2002 are 1411 (= as many as reported by Kashmir). You can
see they are almost done with JAN EB cases. However, from the Kashmir's statistics, it appears that they havn't yet worked on 50% of the total
I-485 cases. (Which is also true as his data considers both EB and non EB category). You can similarly extrapolate for rest of the months in 2002 and 2003 to figure out what % (percentage) of EB I-485 are approved each month.

In other words if we believe that USCIS is approving more than 90% of I-485 applications which are of EB category, then I guess we have reasons to smile.

Don't beat me up for painting such an optimistic picture as I am also one of you who is totaly sick and tired of this (USCIS) system.

-----
wac03145xxxxx
 
Thats one good analysis/post I have read in the recent times. Just curious, how did you find the number of 140s filed ?
 
Varanasi
your analysis is basically flawed for follwoing reason
Most of the people have dependents and they dont have to file I-140.....but that does mean that your analysis applies to people who are primary applicants....when INS says that it adjudicated 40 I-1485 it may mean they touched 20-30 cases ( meaning ) including dependents...
 
That is a very interesting observation if the numbers are true. I have always
wondered about this thing but was not sure.

Now it did not strike to me that Employment based cases would be preceded
by I140. The number 14,000 does look very miniscule to me. I mean come on.
The number of H1B allowed every year was 200,000 every year for last 3-4
years? So there has to be more than than 14,000 I140 applications in 2002.

Does anybody actually know the number of I140 apps for 2001 and 2002?
 
Wait a minute. Varanasi I140 cases filed for CSC in 2002 are 18238

I485 cases must also be equal to 182338. Dadagiri makes a good point (this
sentence sounds funny :) )
Assuming that every I140 approved person has a spouse then just multiply
by 2 this number ~ 36,000 which is the number of cases pending in CSC for
2002. Which means that Non EB apps are very small in number. And there
goes your theory about CSC being fast. Even if we assume that 30,000
is the number of EB cases in CSC the USCIS progress is very slow.
 
Not all I 140 Would go to I 485..
In 2002 and 2003, large no would have opt for consular processing in EB based green card.
 
I am surprised how did you get the total no of I-140s to be 18238!! From
www.immigrationwatch.com it is little less that fourteen thousand (in CSC)!!

The reason why I came up with that analysis was that I assumed some of them to be CP cases and some of them to be from bachelors and some of the I-140 are not yet approved (that means corresponding I-485s are not in the pipeline). That could approximately offset dependents.
I agree the assumption may not be 100 % correct.

One thing that has surprised me all along is that USCIS may only need to spend time on primary applicants (like issueing rfes etc) if FP etc are already done and therefore not sure why this delay considering the fact that there
are so less no of primary applicants. The dependents should automatically be approved!!

Not sure if I could make my point clear enough!!
 
Another very interesting datapoint is that only 60% of the total I-140s filed
in 2002 are approved. That means there can be only (18000 x 0.6) 10800
corresponding EB I-485 applications which are realy in pipeline for JIT processing!!
 
Guys dont jump on the Gun
if I am correct in 2001/2002(fiscal there was the announcement of doing away with prioirty date so there wre many waiting 485's whose date became currnet and filed at once.....thats one of big reason that the 485's are bigger than 140
 
One more factor to be considered in this theory:

What about guys like me whose 140 has been approved from other states(where the company resides) and the 485 is getting processed in CSC(place of work).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top