EB-3 World/245(i) labor backlog

B

blondhenge

Registered Users (C)
In order to solve the EB-3 retrogression situation, the elusive number to this point in time is the number of 245(i) cases backlogged at the labor cert stage. I came across this earlier today (published in May 2003):

http://www.maggio-kattar.com/newsletter/may03.asp

The Department of Labor (DOL) reports that presently an unprecedented 325,000 applications for labor certification are pending. DOL believes that 70% of these cases were filed by April 30, 2001 to qualify the beneficiary under a law known as 245(i)

If these numbers are indeed correct, then the following calculations/assumptions could be made:

1. Potential 245(i) LC cases: 70% X 325,000 = 227,500
2. Potential approvable LC cases: 227,500 X 50% = 113,750 (the approvable rate is based on information recently published by the DOL)
3. Number of cases likely to be approved at the I-140 stage: 113,750 X 75% = 85,313. 75% rate is my estimate, and assume that all cases are EB-3
4. Number of cases that are likely EB-3 skilled/professional: 85,313 X 75% = 63,985. 75% rate is again my estimate
5. Number of cases that likely relate to Mexico and retrogressed countries: 63,985 X 50% = 31,993 50% rate is my estimate of cases that relate primarily to Mexico.

This would imply that there are approximately 31,993 approvable EB-3 world labor certifications that relate to 245(i). Assuming 2 visas per case, the total would be approximately 63,986 visas, which is slightly under 2 years of EB-3 availablily (35,000 per year).

If the entire EB-3 quota is used this fiscal year, one could speculate that it will be at least until spring 2007 before we see any priority date movement.

Please feel free to comment, recalculate, etc!!

Disclaimer: In my calculations above, I have used estimates that I believe are reasonable and reflect the situation as it exists.
 
There are worse scenarios ...

In order to solve the EB-3 retrogression situation, the elusive number to this point in time is the number of 245(i) cases backlogged at the labor cert stage. I came across this earlier today (published in May 2003):

http://www.maggio-kattar.com/newsletter/may03.asp

The Department of Labor (DOL) reports that presently an unprecedented 325,000 applications for labor certification are pending. DOL believes that 70% of these cases were filed by April 30, 2001 to qualify the beneficiary under a law known as 245(i)

If these numbers are indeed correct, then the following calculations/assumptions could be made:

1. Potential 245(i) LC cases: 70% X 325,000 = 227,500
2. Potential approvable LC cases: 227,500 X 50% = 113,750 (the approvable rate is based on information recently published by the DOL)
3. Number of cases likely to be approved at the I-140 stage: 113,750 X 75% = 85,313. 75% rate is my estimate, and assume that all cases are EB-3
4. Number of cases that are likely EB-3 skilled/professional: 85,313 X 75% = 63,985. 75% rate is again my estimate
5. Number of cases that likely relate to Mexico and retrogressed countries: 63,985 X 50% = 31,993 50% rate is my estimate of cases that relate primarily to Mexico.

This would imply that there are approximately 31,993 approvable EB-3 world labor certifications that relate to 245(i). Assuming 2 visas per case, the total would be approximately 63,986 visas, which is slightly under 2 years of EB-3 availablily (35,000 per year).

If the entire EB-3 quota is used this fiscal year, one could speculate that it will be at least until spring 2007 before we see any priority date movement.

Please feel free to comment, recalculate, etc!!

Disclaimer: In my calculations above, I have used estimates that I believe are reasonable and reflect the situation as it exists.
Click to expand...

blondhenge,

Your analysis are infact much better than others. Not sure if they are accurate or not. Its almost impossible to tell. I have stopped paying to much attention to all this math and calcluations. Anyway you look at it, the situation is really grave for EB3. The only solution is a pro immigration bill that adds visa numbers to the yearly EB3 limit. Nothing else will solve this problem. At this point there is no telling if any immigration bill will make it to law this year so things are looking bleak. We will continue to see the dates sit at May 01 or April 01 this whole year.

regards,

saras
 
Those are nice calculations, blondhenge.
But then again it depends on how fast DOL gets those 245i approved and send them into I-140/I-485.
The USCIS announced retrogression primarily because they were waiting for DOL to approve massive numbers of applications to them (and I am betting communication between USCIS and DOL departments are a joke).
So, for us under the EB-3 World category, we can pretty much write off seeing any movement out of May 1, 2001 in the Visa Bulletins, at least until the Oct 2006 VB. By then, let's see what is going on with DOL and USCIS. If they are still fumbling around, we can also write off seeing any improvement until Oct 2007.

The situation sucks.


blondhenge said:
In order to solve the EB-3 retrogression situation, the elusive number to this point in time is the number of 245(i) cases backlogged at the labor cert stage. I came across this earlier today (published in May 2003):

http://www.maggio-kattar.com/newsletter/may03.asp

The Department of Labor (DOL) reports that presently an unprecedented 325,000 applications for labor certification are pending. DOL believes that 70% of these cases were filed by April 30, 2001 to qualify the beneficiary under a law known as 245(i)

If these numbers are indeed correct, then the following calculations/assumptions could be made:

1. Potential 245(i) LC cases: 70% X 325,000 = 227,500
2. Potential approvable LC cases: 227,500 X 50% = 113,750 (the approvable rate is based on information recently published by the DOL)
3. Number of cases likely to be approved at the I-140 stage: 113,750 X 75% = 85,313. 75% rate is my estimate, and assume that all cases are EB-3
4. Number of cases that are likely EB-3 skilled/professional: 85,313 X 75% = 63,985. 75% rate is again my estimate
5. Number of cases that likely relate to Mexico and retrogressed countries: 63,985 X 50% = 31,993 50% rate is my estimate of cases that relate primarily to Mexico.

This would imply that there are approximately 31,993 approvable EB-3 world labor certifications that relate to 245(i). Assuming 2 visas per case, the total would be approximately 63,986 visas, which is slightly under 2 years of EB-3 availablily (35,000 per year).

If the entire EB-3 quota is used this fiscal year, one could speculate that it will be at least until spring 2007 before we see any priority date movement.

Please feel free to comment, recalculate, etc!!

Disclaimer: In my calculations above, I have used estimates that I believe are reasonable and reflect the situation as it exists.
Click to expand...
 
blondhenge said:
In order to solve the EB-3 retrogression situation, the elusive number to this point in time is the number of 245(i) cases backlogged at the labor cert stage. I came across this earlier today (published in May 2003):

http://www.maggio-kattar.com/newsletter/may03.asp

The Department of Labor (DOL) reports that presently an unprecedented 325,000 applications for labor certification are pending. DOL believes that 70% of these cases were filed by April 30, 2001 to qualify the beneficiary under a law known as 245(i)

If these numbers are indeed correct, then the following calculations/assumptions could be made:

1. Potential 245(i) LC cases: 70% X 325,000 = 227,500
2. Potential approvable LC cases: 227,500 X 50% = 113,750 (the approvable rate is based on information recently published by the DOL)
3. Number of cases likely to be approved at the I-140 stage: 113,750 X 75% = 85,313. 75% rate is my estimate, and assume that all cases are EB-3
4. Number of cases that are likely EB-3 skilled/professional: 85,313 X 75% = 63,985. 75% rate is again my estimate
5. Number of cases that likely relate to Mexico and retrogressed countries: 63,985 X 50% = 31,993 50% rate is my estimate of cases that relate primarily to Mexico.

This would imply that there are approximately 31,993 approvable EB-3 world labor certifications that relate to 245(i). Assuming 2 visas per case, the total would be approximately 63,986 visas, which is slightly under 2 years of EB-3 availablily (35,000 per year).

If the entire EB-3 quota is used this fiscal year, one could speculate that it will be at least until spring 2007 before we see any priority date movement.

Please feel free to comment, recalculate, etc!!

Disclaimer: In my calculations above, I have used estimates that I believe are reasonable and reflect the situation as it exists.
Click to expand...

are these calculations for India or worldwide ? I would think that not lots of people from India or china filed under 245(i). most of them must have been from south america ..am I wrong ?
 
mariner555 said:
are these calculations for India or worldwide ? I would think that not lots of people from India or china filed under 245(i). most of them must have been from south america ..am I wrong ?
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Most of 'm are indeed non-indians/chinese... but... there's such heavy demand for visa numbers from indians and chinese that unless they get spillover from RoW, they're screwed. i245 applications will deny them that spillover and limit india, china eb3's to their respective counry quotas which is 2700 or so per year. Compared to the real demand, this is nothing. Spillover kept indians and chinese affloat so far. Not anymore. I think PD for these two will not be stuck in Apr 2001, but move forward at a glacier's pace.
 
Can someone explain to me how priority dates really work? I haven't filed my I-140 yet, but when I do, will I get it the day I file my I-140? After it? Will it be that date? or some date in the past?
 
Priority date

Yooklid said:
Can someone explain to me how priority dates really work? I haven't filed my I-140 yet, but when I do, will I get it the day I file my I-140? After it? Will it be that date? or some date in the past?
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Your priority date will be the date your labor certification was filed. If you are schedule A or LC exempt, then it will be the date that your I-140 is filed.
 
blondhenge said:
Your priority date will be the date your labor certification was filed. If you are schedule A or LC exempt, then it will be the date that your I-140 is filed.
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So I have a PD of last 3/6/06. (EB3 WorldWide)

Why do I feel like I should be seriously looking at Canada?
 
I would like to add this. Your PD is actually owned by you when you get your I-140 approval and you hold atleast a copy of your approval with you.

Your I-140 may be revoked under certain worse conditions. For these conditions please consult your lawyer.
 
Yooklid,
You probably should look at other options unless

1) You are willing to wait 10 plus yrs for your greencard.

2) SKIL bill passes - I dont think the CIR bill if it passes will help us per se because of the enormous strain it will put on BCIS processing resources.



Yooklid said:
So I have a PD of last 3/6/06. (EB3 WorldWide)

Why do I feel like I should be seriously looking at Canada?
Click to expand...
 
Balu,
So can I move to Canada, live there 3 years, get Canadian Citizenship, move back to US on H1, work for same employer and then file for GC and keep my PD - if PD is current ?
 
10 yrs is a conservative estimate.

My PD is August 2001 and Im looking at 2-3 yrs realistically. This is what happens when we have nearly 30,000 Indian Nationals coming in to US on H1 every year but visa quota is only 9,800 across all 3 categories including dependents. In effect for 30 K ppl you are looking at 5,000 visas. When you look at just EB3 situation gets even worse.
 
10 years:is it very conservative ? Yes. It is possible. I think so. Look at the wait some family based categories have experienced. I am sure that at certain point they said "that is pessimistic". Everything is possible.

I am sorry if I sound discouraging but that is the truth.

Yooklid said:
10 years? What? Are you serious?
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