blondhenge
Registered Users (C)
In order to solve the EB-3 retrogression situation, the elusive number to this point in time is the number of 245(i) cases backlogged at the labor cert stage. I came across this earlier today (published in May 2003):
http://www.maggio-kattar.com/newsletter/may03.asp
The Department of Labor (DOL) reports that presently an unprecedented 325,000 applications for labor certification are pending. DOL believes that 70% of these cases were filed by April 30, 2001 to qualify the beneficiary under a law known as 245(i)
If these numbers are indeed correct, then the following calculations/assumptions could be made:
1. Potential 245(i) LC cases: 70% X 325,000 = 227,500
2. Potential approvable LC cases: 227,500 X 50% = 113,750 (the approvable rate is based on information recently published by the DOL)
3. Number of cases likely to be approved at the I-140 stage: 113,750 X 75% = 85,313. 75% rate is my estimate, and assume that all cases are EB-3
4. Number of cases that are likely EB-3 skilled/professional: 85,313 X 75% = 63,985. 75% rate is again my estimate
5. Number of cases that likely relate to Mexico and retrogressed countries: 63,985 X 50% = 31,993 50% rate is my estimate of cases that relate primarily to Mexico.
This would imply that there are approximately 31,993 approvable EB-3 world labor certifications that relate to 245(i). Assuming 2 visas per case, the total would be approximately 63,986 visas, which is slightly under 2 years of EB-3 availablily (35,000 per year).
If the entire EB-3 quota is used this fiscal year, one could speculate that it will be at least until spring 2007 before we see any priority date movement.
Please feel free to comment, recalculate, etc!!
Disclaimer: In my calculations above, I have used estimates that I believe are reasonable and reflect the situation as it exists.
http://www.maggio-kattar.com/newsletter/may03.asp
The Department of Labor (DOL) reports that presently an unprecedented 325,000 applications for labor certification are pending. DOL believes that 70% of these cases were filed by April 30, 2001 to qualify the beneficiary under a law known as 245(i)
If these numbers are indeed correct, then the following calculations/assumptions could be made:
1. Potential 245(i) LC cases: 70% X 325,000 = 227,500
2. Potential approvable LC cases: 227,500 X 50% = 113,750 (the approvable rate is based on information recently published by the DOL)
3. Number of cases likely to be approved at the I-140 stage: 113,750 X 75% = 85,313. 75% rate is my estimate, and assume that all cases are EB-3
4. Number of cases that are likely EB-3 skilled/professional: 85,313 X 75% = 63,985. 75% rate is again my estimate
5. Number of cases that likely relate to Mexico and retrogressed countries: 63,985 X 50% = 31,993 50% rate is my estimate of cases that relate primarily to Mexico.
This would imply that there are approximately 31,993 approvable EB-3 world labor certifications that relate to 245(i). Assuming 2 visas per case, the total would be approximately 63,986 visas, which is slightly under 2 years of EB-3 availablily (35,000 per year).
If the entire EB-3 quota is used this fiscal year, one could speculate that it will be at least until spring 2007 before we see any priority date movement.
Please feel free to comment, recalculate, etc!!
Disclaimer: In my calculations above, I have used estimates that I believe are reasonable and reflect the situation as it exists.