EB-2 Retrogression

A

APD

Registered Users (C)
I understand that like me many folks are considering or exploring to file under EB2.

Does anyone has any information or clue as when is EB2 likely to retrogress?
I believe Attoney Murthy had predicated EB-3 retrogression several months in advance.
Has anyone come across similar forcast by any attorney about EB-2 ?
 
I have seen in Attroney Murthy's website mentioning about EB2 retrogression in the coming months too, especially after the PERM labor applications start to pile up and gather dust in USCIS.
 
Can we do some analysis on that?

There are 140,000 visa numbers per year for employment based green cards. Each category takes 28.6% of the allocation. per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits. There are about 300,000 pending LC cases. How many of those are for Indians, Chinese and Philipinos respectively? How many are for EB1, EB2 and EB3 respectively? How many pending cases at USCIS?


uk123 said:
I have seen in Attroney Murthy's website mentioning about EB2 retrogression in the coming months too, especially after the PERM labor applications start to pile up and gather dust in USCIS.
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If I have understood what you have written then following is the analysis

140,000 visa numbers per year
Per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual limits.
(My understanding of this is that any country gets maximum of 7% of 140,000)
Each category takes 28.6% of the allocation.

7% of 140,000 = 9,800
28.6% of 9,800 = 2,803
Thus each country has a limit of 2,803 per year for all three categories (EB 1,2 & 3)

Now the Backlog Centers have 300,000 cases piled up.
Let’s assume that out of these
75% are EB-3, 20% are EB-2 and 5% are EB-1 cases.
$40% India, 20% China, 20% Philippines and 20% rest of the world

In that case for India

40% of 300,000 = 120,000
75% of 120,000 = 90,000 (EB3)
20% of 120,000 = 24,000 (EB2)
5% of 120,000 = 6,000 (EB1)

I do not know if there is anyway to find out number of pending cases with USCIS. But even if we do not take that in to account all three categories should retrogress for India as per the above calculation. Rather I think EB-2 and EB-1 should also have retrogressed by now.

Does this make any sense to you? Pls give your inputs.




meg_z said:
There are 140,000 visa numbers per year for employment based green cards. Each category takes 28.6% of the allocation. per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits. There are about 300,000 pending LC cases. How many of those are for Indians, Chinese and Philipinos respectively? How many are for EB1, EB2 and EB3 respectively? How many pending cases at USCIS?
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meg_z said:
http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=162150&highlight=visa+allocation

In my previous post I forgot to mention the 226,000 family based annually. My undersanding is each country gets 7% of the sum of 226,000 and 140,000. So will that depend on how fast family based is processing and how many of those family based are from the three countries? Thanks.
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I thnik both family and employment based preferences are treated seperately and both have independant quotas.
 
My question is .. does this calculation and speculation about EB2 retrogression matter? If it retrogresses, it will.. you can do nothing about it. EB2 retrogression and recovery will be definitely better than EB3 always becuase lesser folks in the queue and more numbers subsequently. Unless you can do EB2 with national waiver or EB1, this talk is utterly useless.
 
abzy2004 said:
My question is .. does this calculation and speculation about EB2 retrogression matter? If it retrogresses, it will.. you can do nothing about it. EB2 retrogression and recovery will be definitely better than EB3 always becuase lesser folks in the queue and more numbers subsequently. Unless you can do EB2 with national waiver or EB1, this talk is utterly useless.
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If you find it useless then pls do not join this forum and do not waste yours and others time.

This is a very critical issue for many folks like me who are at a very critical juncture. I am at at stage where I am in 6th year of my H1 and my LC in EB3 is pending for past 2 years and now it has gone to BEC. On top of that EB-3 has retrogressed for 3 years so it might take me another 4-5 years before I get my GC. That will be total 10 years of boded slavery.

I am exploring the option of filing under EB-2 through PERM so I want to do some research on the future of EB-2. If EB-2 is also going to retrogress the same way then I plan to pack my bags and go back home.

I hope you don't have to go thorugh such pains. May god bless you.
Good Luck to you.
 
300,000 Applications

The most of the 300,000 backloged applications are as a result of 245 amenisty. I feel most of these catagory peoples are from Mexico. Even if EB2 or EB3 retro further, it may affect mainly the peoples from Mexico.

This was reported by DOL audit sometime back.
 
Hi APD,
The point is as long as you can keep on extending H1, talk of EB2 retrogression is not going to help. If it does, nobody knows right now and nobody can do anything about that can they? I am in similar situations but what are we going to do about that? :confused: :(

Anyway.. jsut wanted to add -- peace :cool:
 
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Doing something is better than doing nothing :). Being stuck in the same position and browsing this forus daily or hourly is bad enough already. We better use our brains for something anyway :).

We are just trying to learn how the whole system works. It may help us to make better decision. Actually I am in similar position as APD trying to figure out the next step. To change (e) or not to change, that is the question.


abzy2004 said:
My question is .. does this calculation and speculation about EB2 retrogression matter? If it retrogresses, it will.. you can do nothing about it. EB2 retrogression and recovery will be definitely better than EB3 always becuase lesser folks in the queue and more numbers subsequently. Unless you can do EB2 with national waiver or EB1, this talk is utterly useless.
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Some relevant info from Att. Murthy

Rumor : We have heard that there are rumors that retrogression will end by the summer of 2005. Posted Feb 14, 2005

Clarification from Attoney Murthy: There is no one who can accurately predict these matters. Retrogression is caused by demand for the limited supply of visa numbers. Given that demand for employment-based visa numbers is expected to continue to increase, the end of retrogression is unlikely without a change in the law. The last time retrogression occurred it ended only due to a change in the law that allowed unused visa numbers from certain countries to be added back in to be used by everyone. Without a similar procedure or a legislative increase in numbers, retrogression is a likely fact of life. It will continue to be fueled by backlog reduction efforts at both the USCIS and the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL), as well as the new PERM labor certification procedure.

Retrogression recently expanded from EB3 skilled / professional workers to EB3 "other" workers. It is expected to expand to EB2 cases at some point in the future. Any immigration planning should take retrogression and The unavailability of visa numbers into account.
 
In that case, let me help you with one important data that I have been considering.. to understand when a category retrogresses, you should also consider the rate of approval of Labor Certs. The faster the LC gets approved, there is more chance of retrogression happening. One of the reasons why both category became 'current' is because the rate of LC approval slowed down considerably. Also, as far as countries are concerned, it affects india and china more always is becuase again there are far more applicants than numbers available. With due respect, I don't think 245 amnesty filers who are mostly illegal immigrants have EB2 requirements like higher education.

The point is when EB3 goes in retrogression, you can evaluate option of filingin in EB2 to reduce overall time as it takes lesser time for EB2 to be current than EB3 because of sheer number of ppl. Once your I-140 is approved, retrogression won't affect you that much because of EAD and possibly AC-21.
 
abzy2004 said:
In that case, let me help you with one important data that I have been considering.. to understand when a category retrogresses, you should also consider the rate of approval of Labor Certs. The faster the LC gets approved, there is more chance of retrogression happening. One of the reasons why both category became 'current' is because the rate of LC approval slowed down considerably. Also, as far as countries are concerned, it affects india and china more always is becuase again there are far more applicants than numbers available. With due respect, I don't think 245 amnesty filers who are mostly illegal immigrants have EB2 requirements like higher education.

The point is when EB3 goes in retrogression, you can evaluate option of filingin in EB2 to reduce overall time as it takes lesser time for EB2 to be current than EB3 because of sheer number of ppl. Once your I-140 is approved, retrogression won't affect you that much because of EAD and possibly AC-21.
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Is the retrogression related to the LC approvals or 485 approvals ?

My understandin is that the quta is for number of green cards per year. That means if the quta is 10,000 GCs per year for a country and 10,000 GCs (i.e 485s) have been approved then no more numbers are available for that year.

Of course when more LCs are approved there will be more applications for 485 but the actual effect on retrogression would be realted to 485 approvals.

Let's say that USCIS processes 485 at a very slow rate and only approves 6.000 485s in a year for that country. In that case visa numbers should be available irrespective of number of LCs approved in that year. Eventually it would retrogress but not till USCIS improves the speed of 485 processing.

Correct me if my understanding is wrong.

I am glad to see that now you are participating in this discussion.
 
:).. I guess both are related... it seems to be a queue everywhere. With LC approved and concurrent filing allowed for I-140/I-485, a number will be taken once you apply for I-485 as I think EB3 folks are not allowed to 'apply' for I-485/CP till new numbers become available. So it's right that if I-485 speeds up, they will run out of numbers sooner. if LC speeds up, they will have more applications to fill up the queue as well.. Anyway.. that's all I can fit in my measly brains..
 
Some information from murthy bulletin@

PERM Makes Further Retrogression Likely

When the labor process is slow and only releases a low number of approved cases
at any given time, there are fewer people applying for the I-140 and,
consequently, fewer people applying for the I-485 (or consular processing). This
means that fewer people are obtaining employment-based green cards in any given
year and that retrogression will either not occur or will occur in a way that
only affects a relatively small number of those seeking the employment-based
green card. This is under the pre-PERM system.

When the labor process is faster, as expected under PERM, more individuals are
eligible for I-140 filings and, consequently, more people seek to apply for the
I-485 (or consular processing). This means that the number of people obtaining
the employment-based green card in any given year fills up more quickly. As a
result, retrogression is likely to increase to affect more people. It could
expand to many more countries in EB3; expand into the EB2 category; result in
further retrogressions of the priority dates in categories already affected; or
a combination of some or all of these scenarios.

Faster Processing of Cases by USCIS Fuels Retrogression

Also fueling this retrogression are the backlog reduction efforts by the USCIS.
Since demand for visa numbers creates retrogression, the faster approvals of
I-140s/I-485s and the clearing of backlogged cases by the USCIS creates demand
for visa numbers. A visa number must be available and is allocated to each I-485
or consular immigrant visa approval.

With retrogression, one who files under PERM may get through the labor
certification and I-140 process more quickly than under the pre-PERM system, but
may be held up at the I-485 (or consular processing) stage. Such an individual
will either have to wait to file the I-485 or, if the case is filed before the
numbers retrogress, the I-485 (or consular processing) will not be approved
until the priority date is current for these cases. This could be several years
down the road for some nationals depending upon one's employment-based category
priority date.
 
Need clarification on the following in reference to retrogression:

Assume their is a person x, who filed for LC under EB3 category in State Y on May 2003. Then the person X obtaines his LC approval from state and federal in October 2004. He files for concurrent I 140 and I 485. Lets assume he gets his EAD but both I 140 and I 485 are pending with the INS.

So, now does retrogression for Eb3 apply to this person. Does his or her I 485 application be reutrned back to him and his EAD cancelled?

Could anyone clarify this please?
 
wait...

njrirlabor said:
Need clarification on the following in reference to retrogression:

Assume their is a person x, who filed for LC under EB3 category in State Y on May 2003. Then the person X obtaines his LC approval from state and federal in October 2004. He files for concurrent I 140 and I 485. Lets assume he gets his EAD but both I 140 and I 485 are pending with the INS.

So, now does retrogression for Eb3 apply to this person. Does his or her I 485 application be reutrned back to him and his EAD cancelled?

Could anyone clarify this please?
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Nothing will happen....continue to be on EAD until a decision on I140/I485 comes out. Only when the priority date goes past May 2003 I485 will be picked up for processing.
 
rajudm said:
Nothing will happen....continue to be on EAD until a decision on I140/I485 comes out. Only when the priority date goes past May 2003 I485 will be picked up for processing.
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thanks for the response. But if the retrogression came into effect after the clearance of the labor and before concurrentl filing, then the person would not be allowed to apply for EAD? is that correct?

Also, now the way you explanied it, does that mean EAD would be renewed on a yearly basis, even if the prioroty date is not current

Would appreciate answers, if possible.
 
njrirlabor said:
thanks for the response. But if the retrogression came into effect after the clearance of the labor and before concurrentl filing, then the person would not be allowed to apply for EAD? is that correct?

Also, now the way you explanied it, does that mean EAD would be renewed on a yearly basis, even if the prioroty date is not current

Would appreciate answers, if possible.
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Answer to both your questioons - YES.
 
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