EB-2 overflow, how is it handled, will decide how fast you get your GC

57% to India & 43% to china?

akela said:
EB2_091505, may I know how you are so certain than it will go to India/china (like some pub or some reference or did your lawyer say that). I am sure it would be 50-50 (what other criteria would they use anyway. or maye within these two countries the earlier goes first irrespective of nationality). bOTTOMLINE, anyway a good thing...but do we know for sure.

gcrayudu, I am not a lawyer, consult one, but you can take benifit of AC21, 485 need not be approved, only applied 6 months ago.
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My lawyer said it should goto India/China.(She is One of the top lawyers so i am not worried about credentials)
Another thing that she mentioned was she is not sure if it's 50/50 & said what else could be the distribution..My response was...Lets say India is retrogressed 48 Months & China is retrogressed 36 months so 4/7*100=57% to India looks more logical but she didn't get it.
I know I know I said she was smart.
Well lets hangin there..
Support isnamerica.org & keep fighting.Happy New Year to all
 
newbies said:
Previous visa buletin predicts it will be retro in the second half of FY06 (which is from Apr 1 - Sept 30/06).
I doubt your I485 will be clear before that but hope for the best. What is your PD? Not 2005 right :)
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My PD is 10/2005.....EB2.
i still have pending case from 4/2004 at BEC RIR EB3...
 
ta da the good news !!!

This means that unused visa number will go to India (any oversubscribed category) and it happens each quarter. That's why the number are moving fast.


SEC. 104. LIMITATION ON PER COUNTRY CEILING WITH RESPECT TO EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS.
(a) SPECIAL RULES- Section 202(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.1152(a)) is amended by adding at the end the following new paragraph:
“(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-
“(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.
 
akela,

It is not fast in Eb2 Catagory for India and China. Particulary for India, it is just moving uniformly by 7 months in both Eb3 and Eb2. My points are,

1. EB2 never retrogressed before Oct 2005. Eb2 had been "current" for all including India, till sep 2005. However eb3 has started retrogressed in Fy 2004 and it was completly unavailable for 3 months before sep 2005.

2. EB2 has less numbers compare to EB3 (almost 50%).

If EB3 India moves by 7 months, why Eb2 also moves by 7 months? It should go faster than this.

Also, Available EB2 (approx) Numbers for India, China and ROW in first quarter of FY 2006.

IN CH ROW
Oct 250 250 3000
Nov 250 250 3000
Dec 250 250 3000

Total 750 750 9000

Out of this 9000, only few ROW might have approved. I doubt that whether DOS redirected rest of the numbers to IN&CH in EB2 catagory. Though ROW-EB3 retrogressed severly, EB3 India has moved by 7 months. Contradit to that, though ROW-EB2 was current, EB2-India moves only by 7 months? I seriously doubt that. DOS is moving the dates based on 250 visa numbers per month for India (for both EB3 and EB2), not based on redirecting unused visa numbers per calender quarter to oversubscribed countries as per AC21 provision.
 
do you think eb-2 for india will continue to progress by 6-7 months each time,by say sept this year will dates become current?does the load of appications that came in thro perm in 2005 will it have any affect on the progress of the visa no?
 
Can Card I seriously disagree with your analysis, here is why...I am pulling these numbers from

Please see the thread on how I reached this number...even the unscientefic polling of EB-2 ETC. in the same orum supports that.

http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=199253

Now to predict how long will it take, here are my calculations. (Why I am presenting this, I want people to say where I am going wrong and second I have few questions of my own).
I am going to assume all of 73K ppl in 485 pending are ahead of July 2002 (a small % might not be). 20% of them are eb2 and out that 25% are Indian.
Total Indians ahead of an EB-2 July 2002 person = 3650 Indian ahead
Out of Backlog, say removing 245 i applicants, the number backlogged are 150k as of Sept 2004 (where are the some 500K ppl who came on H1B from 2001 to 2004)
If you see distribution 20% of these applicantswere before july 20002, 29% of which are EB-2 and further only 25% Indian (could be higher, but thats the recent past trend), the number of Indian ahead = 2523
So total Indians in EB-2 ahead of an July 2002 applicant is 6200 approx.
It takes 2.05 GC per person total GC required = 12700
Now comes the millon dollar question. That will determine how fast we reach there. If the unused GC in EB-2 (or EB-1) are left unused by rest of the word by the end of year, where does those GC go, to the oversubscribe countries in the same category (EB-2, which would be India or China) in the last quater or it goes to EB-3 and then satisfies ROW. It seams the relevant law code is 8USC 1152(a)(5)(A). I could not find anything. If the answer to the question is Yes, EB-2 Indian and Chinese get them first, then all of EB1,2 and 3 China folks benefit (For EB-3 Indian or Chinese, it clears backlog of EB-1 and EB-2 Indians/chines ahead of them faster, so there que moves faster).
Per year (with 140,000 limit, the limit is at least these many, can be more), with 7.1% and 27% per category limit means, there are only 2684 application. it will take close to 5 years for that person, to get GC. But if EB-2 GC spill to oversubscribe coutries, I would imagine, that 2002 july person can apply by the end of this Fiscal year or at the most next.
Any news on AC21 GC left unused, how many of them are there and can/are they being applied towards GC this year.


So, if you see, distribution of 2001 to 2002 is of the ratio of 38% to 62%. Also there are more than 3650 eb-2 Inidan application of 485 pending at USCIS on Sept 2005. I would assume most of them are prior to 2002 January. They each take 2.05 visa, so almost 7300 EB-2 GC have to be granted. Now how many of them are before Aug 01, tough to know, but it will ceratinly be more than 750 that you are proposing. That makes me think that unused visas are getting applied to India (as per the law). I am fairly confident that, this is what is happening. Remeber if my model is right, than dates can go back once BEC starts adjucating. But thanks to the law
that you find, I forsee fast movement because of this law.
 
hi akela,so what will be the future for eb-2 indians?can we get out of this retrogression.do you think if it advances by 6 months each time by sept this year will our dates be current?
 
well if you see my calculation than by 2005 sept, we have about 18,500 Indians in EB-2 sitting in BEC.

They would need 36,000 Visa. Depending upon what's your date is, it will take a while. I would imagine Indians are entitled to 3000 EB-2 and I guess spill overs would account for another 9000-10,000 every year (as per past experience)


So to reach 2005 (and a wild guess have sacks of salt ready) it will take 3 years.

rgds,
akl
 
akela said:
So, if you see, distribution of 2001 to 2002 is of the ratio of 38% to 62%. Also there are more than 3650 eb-2 Inidan application of 485 pending at USCIS on Sept 2005. I would assume most of them are prior to 2002 January. They each take 2.05 visa, so almost 7300 EB-2 GC have to be granted. Now how many of them are before Aug 01, tough to know, but it will ceratinly be more than 750 that you are proposing. That makes me think that unused visas are getting applied to India (as per the law). I am fairly confident that, this is what is happening. Remeber if my model is right, than dates can go back once BEC starts adjucating. But thanks to the law
that you find, I forsee fast movement because of this law.
Click to expand...

Good analysis.I surprise with your number game. I appreciate it. However, I disagree with you based on the your own numbers. Here is my another logic based on what you presented. As you said, let us assume, 7300-EB2 India 485s were pending as on Sep 2005. The new visa numbers for FY 2006 has mandated 750 EB2 visas for India alone and 9000 for ROW for the first quarter. As you said , the number of indians with PD before aug 2001 will be more than 750. OK, Here is the logic, If india has 7300-EB2 pending means, the ROW will be only 1500 (20% of India number). EB2-ROW is very very less compare to India. Therefore, the remaining (9000-1500) 7500 AC21 visa numbers should have been redirected to EB2 India and China for the first qtr of the FY, in dec 2005. Let us assume India gets 3500 additional EB2 visa numbers in Dec 2005, The cutoff date should have jumped into 2002. I doubt Indians with PD before Aug 2001 will be 4250 compare to total number of pending EB2-indians 7300 as you presented.
 
1.Can_card said, " If india has 7300-EB2 pending means, the ROW will be only 1500 (20% of India number)."

Why? How did u get that ROW EB-2 should be 20% of Indian number.

Thanks
 
akela said:
1.Can_card said, " If india has 7300-EB2 pending means, the ROW will be only 1500 (20% of India number)."

Why? How did u get that ROW EB-2 should be 20% of Indian number.

Thanks
Click to expand...
It is appoximate guess, based on two factors. First, in 2003, Out of total of 15000 EB2 485s were approved, India and China has consumed 11000 leaving 4000 to rest of the world (India 8500 and China 2600). Second, based on charectersitis of employment immigrants based on country, releaed by DHS.
ROW mainly consists EB3 cases. Also, based on DOS's own visa bulliton. Because EB2-ROW was always being current compare to India and China's deep retrogression. If, DOS is estimating ROW retrogress in latter part of the FY, and if they have lot of pending ROW-EB2 485s, why can't they set up a very mild retrogression to ROW (May be in year 2004) now itself ? I think, DOS has taken more conservative approch.
 
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