EB-2 India visas almost gone?

R

rollingstone

Registered Users (C)
The Dec bulletin says 38% of EB-2 India and China have been used up. I am assuming that means 38% India and 38% China quotas. The annual quota for each category is about 3000, which means about 1140 visas were used up as of end of first week of Nov.

In my tracker, I counted 27 EB-2 India approvals in Oct and upto and including 7th Nov. Which means each approval reported on this website corresponds to 1140/27 = 42 actual approvals. As of now there were 29 more EB-2 India approvals reported here. Over next few days I am sure more people will report approvals (that happened today). Assuming the ratio holds, that means 29 * 42 = 1218 more visas have been allocated, bringing the total to 1218 + 1140 = 2358.

What does this mean? Almost all of the entire years EB-2 quota is gone. My estimates may be rough, but you get the picture.

Expect big U in Jan or Feb bulletins.
 
I appreciate your analysis. I seen many experts analyzed visa allotment, Priority dates movements etc in past but most of the time their logic didn't work out. USCIS and DOS are totally unpredictable on this issue. In fact, no one know how it is going to unfold!! They are not transparent.
I remember, in July 2005, the person who is in charge of setting Visa Bulletin informed AILA conference that EB2 India is not going to retrogress until Jan/Feb 2006 and it was heavily retrogressed in Oct 2005 Visa Bulletin. Have any one predicted July 2007 current for all Category??

Bottom line is that "Only GOD know, how Visa Bulletin unfold"


rollingstone said:
The Dec bulletin says 38% of EB-2 India and China have been used up. I am assuming that means 38% India and 38% China quotas. The annual quota for each category is about 3000, which means about 1140 visas were used up as of end of first week of Nov.

In my tracker, I counted 27 EB-2 India approvals in Oct and upto and including 7th Nov. Which means each approval reported on this website corresponds to 1140/27 = 42 actual approvals. As of now there were 29 more EB-2 India approvals reported here. Over next few days I am sure more people will report approvals (that happened today). Assuming the ratio holds, that means 29 * 42 = 1218 more visas have been allocated, bringing the total to 1218 + 1140 = 2358.

What does this mean? Almost all of the entire years EB-2 quota is gone. My estimates may be rough, but you get the picture.

Expect big U in Jan or Feb bulletins.
Click to expand...
 
Retrogression is guaranteed because visa demand far outstrips visa number availability. The Jul fiasco was, well, a fiasco. It's not going to repeat. For proof, see how EB-3 has remained retrogressed for long. The same thing is going to happen to EB-2.
 
rollingstone said:
Retrogression is guaranteed because visa demand far outstrips visa number availability. The Jul fiasco was, well, a fiasco. It's not going to repeat. For proof, see how EB-3 has remained retrogressed for long. The same thing is going to happen to EB-2.
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This might be true, of late , "lot of" guys reporting approvals with PD in the range 2001 and early 2002.
 
I wonder how many of us with PD of 2001/2002 are still pending? There won't be too many. Now that ppl with 2003 and later PD cant be processed, I am hoping that PD will move forward through 2002 fairly quickly.
 
Feb 2008 bulletin:

Despite two retrogressions of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date, demand for numbers by CIS Offices for adjustment of status cases has remained extremely high in recent months. As a result the annual limit for the India Employment Second preference category has been reached, and the category has become "unavailable" effective immediately

I am surprised by the accuracy of my own predictions. Anybody interested in more?
 
OK, it's not very pretty.

First off, there's not going to be another july fiasco. EB-3 RoW being oversubscribed, EB-2 India will not get many leftover visas towards end of the fiscal year. It's very much possible, EB-2 will remain unavailable till Oct. The big question is what will happen in Oct. The answer is - same thing that's happening with EB-3. EB-2 will hit a certain "stagnation date" and advance by about a week every month. If they set the cutoff date anywhere in 2003 or beyond, this year's sequence of events will repeat - i.e. become "unavailable" in Jan of Feb. This is mainly because thousands of people have converted from EB-3 to EB-2. So what will be the EB-2 "stagnation date"? I am guessing somewhere in 2001 - perhaps around Oct or Nov 2001.

Prognosis for EB-3 is much better. I think EB-3 might make good advances even if briefly - I haven't seen that many approvals, so hopefully they have plenty of visas left over. If they are unable to use up all EB-3s by Jul, they will advance EB-3 significantly (although probably not make it current).
 
congratulations rollingstone for your predictions. Actually your predictions are based on actual numbers and I happy to know that you have gathered lot of data in this respect. Please ananlyse congress passing the Immigration bill for EB atleast.
 
OK, it's prediction time again. Frankly, I am surprised EB-2 has become available again. I understand this is because unused EB-1 India overflow. At best this is around 2000 visas. Using the ratio in my first post, this corresponds to 2000/42 = 47 approvals reported.

In other words, once 47 EB-2 India approvals have been reported on this website, it means EB-2 India visas have again been exhausted, and you are looking at another big U. Of course this is a rough estimate, as always.

Start counting...
 
rollingstone said:
OK, it's prediction time again. Frankly, I am surprised EB-2 has become available again. I understand this is because unused EB-1 India overflow. At best this is around 2000 visas. Using the ratio in my first post, this corresponds to 2000/42 = 47 approvals reported.

In other words, once 47 EB-2 India approvals have been reported on this website, it means EB-2 India visas have again been exhausted, and you are looking at another big U. Of course this is a rough estimate, as always.

Start counting...
Click to expand...

According to Murthy bulletin of this week, the numbers to India came from
EB1 World --> EB1 India --> EB2 India ( and that makes more than 7% allocation to India ).
 
gc_mania said:
According to Murthy bulletin of this week, the numbers to India came from
EB1 World --> EB1 India --> EB2 India ( and that makes more than 7% allocation to India ).
Click to expand...

That's wrong.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showpost.php?p=14888&postcount=257

"The mystery is solved. I have corresponded with Charlie Oppenheim in the Visa Office. He confirmed that the 27% limit does apply. He explained that during this fiscal year, the CIS consumed an unusually large number of Indian EB2 visas, thus making the category unavailable despite a retrogression in the cuoff date which was intended to hold number use within the limit.

He said that based on his discussions with the CIS, he was informed that the CIS did not feel that the current amount of pending Indian first preference demand would be insufficient to use all available numbers under the limit. Therefore, he allowed some of those numbers to fall down into Indian second preference.

So, the Indian second preference numbers used to establish a cutoff date for April are coming from left over Indian first preference, not worldwide numbers."


So that's probably much less than 2000 visas. Maybe around 1000 or 1500.
 
That may not be wrong

rollingstone said:
That's wrong.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showpost.php?p=14888&postcount=257

"The mystery is solved. I have corresponded with Charlie Oppenheim in the Visa Office. He confirmed that the 27% limit does apply. He explained that during this fiscal year, the CIS consumed an unusually large number of Indian EB2 visas, thus making the category unavailable despite a retrogression in the cuoff date which was intended to hold number use within the limit.

He said that based on his discussions with the CIS, he was informed that the CIS did not feel that the current amount of pending Indian first preference demand would be insufficient to use all available numbers under the limit. Therefore, he allowed some of those numbers to fall down into Indian second preference.

So, the Indian second preference numbers used to establish a cutoff date for April are coming from left over Indian first preference, not worldwide numbers."


So that's probably much less than 2000 visas. Maybe around 1000 or 1500.
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See http://www.murthy.com/news/n_predic.html ( and Gotcher didn't attend this meeting )

...........
The allowable seven percent per country limit has already been used for both China and India. Rather than listing the category as unavailable for these two countries, however, visa numbers were shifted to them from the other countries' unused quota in EB1, due to the excess and unused EB1 worldwide quota. In fact, a surplus of numbers in the EB1 category is anticipated. Therefore, it is expected that thousands of the numbers allocated to EB1 will be shifted down and made available to EB2, since the EB2 category includes any unused visa numbers in the EB1 category. This would occur before the end of the fiscal year.
..............
 
Visa dates for EB2 may advance further

And that is due to lack of CIS productivity. To reduce wastage of visa numbers the DOS advances the cut off dates, so that overseas consulates can use numbers ( consular posts have better productivity ).

Some India EB2 folks with RD 2004 were reporting they saw 'LUDs' in their case.
 
Assuming the word from congressman's office (we all know they are generally dumb), I get the info that EB-2 India may stay where it is.

Looking at the law details, posted by Gotcher, seems law is not clear either. Only time can tell what will happen.
 
I was actually wondering how many India Eb2 visas are available at this point ? ( and also how many applicants with PD current - next month )
 
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