Earthquake in Nepal

[Anxiety2015]

When they were allowing people from Ebola-affected countries to interview elsewhere, I seem to recall they allowed them to bring medicals from their home country; they could do the same here to help the process if they did move the interviews.

Terribly sad news and I hope all our Nepalese forum members and their loved ones are ok.

I really hope they can recover soon.

As much as I want my own DV case to go through, it's the life of another human we are talking about here.
Whatever the interest we have between nations and ethnicity, I just can't imagine anything getting in the way of human life.

 

[connectedspace]

This is truly terrible news. Such a beautiful country and people .

 

[usken go]

Very saddening indeed. Our thoughts and prayers are with you People of Nepal.

 

[Sloner]

This might give those of us with high cn a glimmer of hope, maybe asia will go current if they can't process Nepalese cases

Not to laugh on others suffering. Don't get me wrong

Do not expect. Last year, the army Ukraine bombed their cities with the consent and assistance of the United States and Europe. But Ukraine has received more visas than in 2013.

Ebola did not have a large scale. The problem of inflated media.To express my deepest condolences to the people of Nepal. I know that this earthquake. Approximately 4.5 points managed to survive in 2003.

 

[behdadk]

I'm From country of earthquakes and I saw what they done to weak structures of third world countries and how devastating they are!, So my deepest sympathies go out to Nepalis. Stay strong.
I know US visa is the last thing in the Nepalis mind right know, But I hope whenever they settled they have a chance to attend their Interview and receive their visas and I bet that they fully exhaust their 3500 visas this year.
I didn't receive any news regarding damage to US embassy in Kathmandu and there is a big chance that it is fully functional by now. The only problem is the likeliness of less Nepalis readiness to interview in this situation, maybe AS jumps in next VB just to invite more Nepalis to compensate the ones who couldn't attend and wanted to delay their interview and in the second VB there will be less progression. The final numbers won't change and Nepalis will reach their quota in August.

But at the same time I think that Simon's prediction of next VB is too optimistic. This is not the time nor the place to talk about VB. sorry about that.

 

[Martin9]

Thank you, sir, for sharing the news. But in your opinion, can KCC afford to stop Asia's progress so close to the end of the fiscal year? With only 3 VB's left and no time to compensate later, I guess AS would never fill its quota if that happened. I'd be very appreciative to hear your opinion on this.

I also extend my deepest sympathy to all Nepalis. Our thoughts and prayers are with you.

The US Embassy has put the following notice:
Notice: Due to the earthquake that struck Nepal on 25 April 2015, the Embassy’s Consular Section has cancelled all non-immigrant, immigrant and diversity visa interviews on Monday 27 April 2015. Please check this site frequently for updates on any additional cancellations.
That is to be expected. Even if the Embassy building is unaffected, the staff at the Embassy would be affected in some ways. Even if they or their family escaped unharmed, and we all hope that is the case, they would have their hands full dealing with US Citizens (climbers, tourists etc.) who were affected and it would be all hands to the pumps.
DV would be the least of their worries.

The Embassy would need to reschedule a lot of interviews. What is the main difference between this disaster and the Ebola outbreak or the war in Yemen, is the much larger population of selectees and unlike the Ebola issue, the infrastructure is damaged and therefore travelling arrangements would be nearly impossible for the selectees and their family to go to India or elsewhere to attend interviews.There is also less time left of the "season" than in other cases. At this point I don't think even the US Government has decided what to do so any speculation is meaningless, but my guess would be that they simply won't limit Nepal, due to the fact that they wouldn't max out since less people are able to attend interviews.

 

[NaraLB]

The US Embassy has put the following notice:
Notice: Due to the earthquake that struck Nepal on 25 April 2015, the Embassy’s Consular Section has cancelled all non-immigrant, immigrant and diversity visa interviews on Monday 27 April 2015. Please check this site frequently for updates on any additional cancellations.
That is to be expected. Even if the Embassy building is unaffected, the staff at the Embassy would be affected in some ways. Even if they or their family escaped unharmed, and we all hope that is the case, they would have their hands full dealing with US Citizens (climbers, tourists etc.) who were affected and it would be all hands to the pumps.
DV would be the least of their worries.

The Embassy would need to reschedule a lot of interviews. What is the main difference between this disaster and the Ebola outbreak or the war in Yemen, is the much larger population of selectees and unlike the Ebola issue, the infrastructure is damaged and therefore travelling arrangements would be nearly impossible for the selectees and their family to go to India or elsewhere to attend interviews.There is also less time left of the "season" than in other cases. At this point I don't think even the US Government has decided what to do so any speculation is meaningless, but my guess would be that they simply won't limit Nepal, due to the fact that they wouldn't max out since less people are able to attend interviews.

Thank you, sir. Very informative!

 

[Martin9]

I saw an email from our Immigration Department of the law offices I work at, regarding the situation in Nepal, which although not DV specific, has a lot of salient points which I am sharing below:

• The earthquake has had far greater impact than originally thought. Over 80% of population of Nepal live in rural areas outside of Nepal, and these areas are currently unreachable. (this is of course most relevant for DV which I am assuming is less spread outside of the Capital, but still would leave a lot of people unable to come for interviews)

• There has been significant damage to the infrastructure in Kathmandu and power, telephone and Internet connections are intermittent at best. US Embassy has now cancelled all interviews until Thursday, but cancellation are likely to be extended for the foreseeable future.

• There is a shortage of doctor and medical staff with only one doctor available for every 2,000 victims, so no medical examination for immigrant visas are possible currently and for a considerable time to come.

• Police forces are busy dealing with the disaster and won’t be issuing Police Certificates for immigration purposes.

• Although the US Embassy itself is functioning, it has invoked the disaster plan and activated secondary site at alternate command centre at the American Mission at Phora Durbar. Plans are in hand for evacuation of non-essential staff and families out of the danger zone as soon as practical, replacing them with logistical support staff from the disaster relief organisations and the military.

• Although US nationals staff are accounted for, many local staff who provide support services are absent, or have been deployed as liaison staff for the relief effort.

• Further aftershocks of large magnitude are likely within the next 30 days.

• The Kathmandu International airport is closed to all but emergency services.

So the situation is more like the war torn Yemen than the Ebola affected embassies, only with much greater impact on the RoA selectees. Although only 3 VBs are left, this impacts the people who were current for May and June, perhaps even more so, and that is a sizeable number. So 5 VBs or half is impacted. This may throw all predictions for Asia cut off out of kilter depending on what KCC decides to do and there is no way of knowing that. I personally will be surprised if they make a big change to the May VB numbers. They will probably be in the range that BritSimon has predicted, but after that, it is in the lap of the Gods. There is a chance that they would make a special case for Nepal on humanitarian grounds, e.g. hold back some visas, and let Nepal go on longer perhaps, whilst letting the RoA progress. Under this scenario the final cut off would remain the same as before ignoring Iran AP of course.

I encourage you all to make a donation to the disaster relief fund in and spare a thought for all the victims who have lost so much.

 

[Bansal]

Our thoughts and prayers with Nepali people. Such a sad tragedy. Just to add that people can donate on UNICEF website

On your note, why do you think it will not affect the May bulletin? I personally beleive if any changes are to be made it has to be in May. If these cancellation continue for quite longer, then there will be a lot of interviews to be rescheduled in Nepal. In DV program, the priority is always based on numbers. So I don't think KCC calls for higher CNs in Nepal to compensate for those who got their interviews cancelled or missed it due to this event, it just doesn't happen. On the other hand KCC needs to issue around 5000 visas per month. So with only 3 VBs left, I personally beleive Nepal might see a limit on number for next Bulletin to reschedule cancelled interviews in next month(s), but Asia's number itself going higher than expected to make sure enough visas are issued. This way KCC can keep it on track, the only difference would be Nepal reaching its quota later in September rather than in August. Now of course these are all assumptions and no one can predict what strategy KCC would go for. Let me know what you think

 

[Martin9]

The Reason I think the May numbers won't change, is simply due to the fact that I don't think KCC would have had enough time to analyse and adjust the numbers significantly in the next couple of weeks, so they would probably go with the previous trends rather than try and do a drastic change. That is not based on any"science", only the fact that bureaucrats tend to kick things in the long grass and not want to deal with an unexpected situation straight away. I may be wrong, but we need to wait and see. They might think that 2 weeks is plenty of time to evaluate the situation.

I don't think the Embassy in Nepal or the other support functions such as medicals and police checks can be up and running until at least July, and it would be very difficult to reschedule interviews at other Embassies, as the transport links are severed.
They also have the option of reserving some visas, like they do for Nicaragua and South America Relief Act (which reserves 5000 out of the original 55,000 DV allocation), and issue those outside of the normal stream allowing RoA to progress and at the same time respecting the rights of the Nepali selctees, but that would require an Act of Congress, or an Executive Order, which is certainly possible. Or even reserve the leftover visas from the NACARA allocation for Nepal, rather than release into the general pool in September.

 

[EURO2014]

The Reason I think the May numbers won't change, is simply due to the fact that I don't think KCC would have had enough time to analyse and adjust the numbers significantly in the next couple of weeks, so they would probably go with the previous trends rather than try and do a drastic change. That is not based on any"science", only the fact that bureaucrats tend to kick things in the long grass and not want to deal with an unexpected situation straight away. I may be wrong, but we need to wait and see. They might think that 2 weeks is plenty of time to evaluate the situation.

I don't think the Embassy in Nepal or the other support functions such as medicals and police checks can be up and running until at least July, and it would be very difficult to reschedule interviews at other Embassies, as the transport links are severed.
They also have the option of reserving some visas, like they do for Nicaragua and South America Relief Act (which reserves 5000 out of the original 55,000 DV allocation), and issue those outside of the normal stream allowing RoA to progress and at the same time respecting the rights of the Nepali selctees, but that would require an Act of Congress, or an Executive Order, which is certainly possible. Or even reserve the leftover visas from the NACARA allocation for Nepal, rather than release into the general pool in September.

Yes, of course it is only speculation from our sides at this time, yet the option you mention (NACARA reserve) could well turn out to become a true possibility, as it originally was established to deal with humanitarian issues (at that time in Central America). Good presentation of the matter, Martin9!

 

[Bansal]

Yes, anything could happen. But let's consider each of the scenarios mentioned here. What would you think happen to next VBs if any changes are decided to be made? Will it get faster or slower for higher CNs?

 

[Hormuz]

The Reason I think the May numbers won't change, is simply due to the fact that I don't think KCC would have had enough time to analyse and adjust the numbers significantly in the next couple of weeks, so they would probably go with the previous trends rather than try and do a drastic change. That is not based on any"science", only the fact that bureaucrats tend to kick things in the long grass and not want to deal with an unexpected situation straight away. I may be wrong, but we need to wait and see. They might think that 2 weeks is plenty of time to evaluate the situation.

I don't think the Embassy in Nepal or the other support functions such as medicals and police checks can be up and running until at least July, and it would be very difficult to reschedule interviews at other Embassies, as the transport links are severed.
They also have the option of reserving some visas, like they do for Nicaragua and South America Relief Act (which reserves 5000 out of the original 55,000 DV allocation), and issue those outside of the normal stream allowing RoA to progress and at the same time respecting the rights of the Nepali selctees, but that would require an Act of Congress, or an Executive Order, which is certainly possible. Or even reserve the leftover visas from the NACARA allocation for Nepal, rather than release into the general pool in September.

Thanks Martin9, very through as always.
On our Iranian Forum, everyone is sadened by the news of Nepal. May God help and keep them all safe. Of course we all want our visas, but never at the cost of others.
I thought there was only 50,000 visas available!. What is NACARA??
Is it possible that KCC will delay VB until they know what to do?
Thanks agian

 

[EURO2014]

Yes, anything could happen. But let's consider each of the scenarios mentioned here. What would you think happen to next VBs if any changes are decided to be made? Will it get faster or slower for higher CNs?

Either would be pure speculation at this point, as folks @ KCC have surely have not made up their minds at this stage - any government bureaucracy is likely to respond initially with a 'wait and see' attitude, as Martin9 pointed out earlier.

 

[Martin9]

Firstly, I meant to put this link on for donations, but seem to have missed it out:
http://www.supportunicef.org
Sorry,

Secondly, the NACARA refers to Nicaraguan Adjustment and Central American Relief Act which is a law passed in 1997 that provides various forms of immigration benefits and relief from deportation to certain Nicaraguans, Cubans, Salvadorans, Guatemalans, nationals of former Soviet bloc countries and their dependants who had arrived as asylum seekers. So starting in fiscal year 1999, 5,000 of the visas from the DV program are reserved for use by the NACARA program, so the number of immigrant visas available in the lottery is reduced to 50,000, however, not all 5000 are used up these days and are put back in the general pool I think in September.
Finally, there is no way of knowing the mind of KCC. They will act within the law and must have contingency plans, which may not be country specific, but should cover such situations as war and disasters.

 

[Bansal]

Thanks for putting the website here, I could not do that since I'm a newbie to this forum.
Update: Nepal embassy again extended the cancellation period. They will not hold any interviews this week, until May 1st. I guess this could go for quite some time.

 

[Britsimon]

Interesting points Martin. I think you are spot on about the impacts etc, but the idea the KCC will do something different on humanitarian grounds is unlikely. As you say, they are not known for their ability to roll with their punches. Their solutions for everything from Ebola to Yemen, to Venezuela and so on have been clumsy as heck. Even their own mistake on the first views of winning entries was badly handled. They have one tool in their box. It us a VB hammer. I really hope they use some common sense but I suspect we will see little of that to help the Nepalese people, but perhaps they might help ROA to avoid a total screwup.

 

[EURO2014]

Interesting points Martin. I think you are spot on about the impacts etc, but the idea the KCC will do something different on humanitarian grounds is unlikely. As you say, they are not known for their ability to roll with their punches. Their solutions for everything from Ebola to Yemen, to Venezuela and so on have been clumsy as heck. Even their own mistake on the first views of winning entries was badly handled. They have one tool in their box. It us a VB hammer. I really hope they use some common sense but I suspect we will see little of that to help the Nepalese people, but perhaps they might help ROA to avoid a total screwup.

Yes, possibly - yet, doing so, while being seen as uncharitable to the Nepalese people in their time of need, would surely not be something a KCC government bureaucrat would love to put on their responsible shoulders over the next few weeks and months. Given the significant importance of one US Consulate, now being taken out of the picture for the foreseeable future, there does not seem to be an obvious way out and we therefore might possibly see an impact on the regional (AS) if not global level (utilization NACARA visa balance), as far as DV 2015 is concerned - beyond the dramatic impact on lives in Nepal itself which rightfully will be absolute priority for US Consulates in the region for some time to come, in my opinion.

 

[Martin9]

Interesting points Martin. I think you are spot on about the impacts etc, but the idea the KCC will do something different on humanitarian grounds is unlikely. As you say, they are not known for their ability to roll with their punches. Their solutions for everything from Ebola to Yemen, to Venezuela and so on have been clumsy as heck. Even their own mistake on the first views of winning entries was badly handled. They have one tool in their box. It us a VB hammer. I really hope they use some common sense but I suspect we will see little of that to help the Nepalese people, but perhaps they might help ROA to avoid a total screwup.

Thanks Simon. I guess you may well be right about that. KCC has never shown any competency or compassion, so why should they start now!.

 

[NaraLB]

Yes, possibly - yet, doing so, while being seen as uncharitable to the Nepalese people in their time of need, would surely not be something a KCC government bureaucrat would love to put on their responsible shoulders over the next few weeks and months. Given the significant importance of one US Consulate, now being taken out of the picture for the foreseeable future, there does not seem to be an obvious way out and we therefore might possibly see an impact on the regional (AS) if not global level (utilization NACARA visa balance), as far as DV 2015 is concerned - beyond the dramatic impact on lives in Nepal itself which rightfully will be absolute priority for US Consulates in the region for some time to come, in my opinion.

Excuse me, sir. I'd love to better understand your opinion on this: Do you think Asia as a whole will be allowed to progress (and maybe eventually see higher AS cutoffs) since Kathmandu embassy currently has other priorities, or do you think the progress for the entire region will be held up? Thank you so much!