• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

DV2004 and DV2005 cut off on Sept

SusieQQQ said:
I don't know for sure what the highest issued number was or what the highest number that processed forms was. But to explain again: 16000 (approx) selectees includes principals and dependents. Each case number is per family, not per individual. So 10000 case numbers (approx) among 16000 selectees implies an average of 1.6 people per case number which is perfectly reasonable, in fact it is probably low, but that would be made up for by holes in the numbers. Say (assumption) in reality probably more like an average of 2 people per case number. This sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Why doesn't it sound reasonable to you?[/QUOT

Well, I thought 16k selectees means that 16k CN #... So according to you this is wrong.... And accordingly, tjis year given that the highest cn in AS is 23k, this means around 23x2=46k selectees from AS ... But this seems incorrect to me
Click to expand...
 
I don't know the factor for Asia. I do know that the number of selectees includes dependents and that there are "holes" in the case numbers so they are not all consecutive. Maybe someone else has the patience to explain it further if you need it. Or maybe you want to find where someone has linked the CEAC data spreadsheets and figure it out for yourself. This has been discussed to death in the (old) forums already.
 

AS had 23k selectees in 2014 and the highest Case Number is around 27k. AS Susie has explained there are holes between case numbers (especially after about 10-12k where Nepal and Iran cut off) and also as she explained one case can cover more than one applicant.
 
SusieQQQ said:
I don't know for sure what the highest issued number was or what the highest number that processed forms was. But to explain again: 16000 (approx) selectees includes principals and dependents. Each case number is per family, not per individual. So 10000 case numbers (approx) among 16000 selectees implies an average of 1.6 people per case number which is perfectly reasonable, in fact it is probably low, but that would be made up for by holes in the numbers. Say (assumption) in reality probably more like an average of 2 people per case number. This sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Why doesn't it sound reasonable to you?
Click to expand...


In DV 2013 it was CURRENT in August & September... Also in July AS cutoff was 9850 ... So according to you there were about 1k (106XX - 9850 )interviews were held during the August & September ??? So small number of people were interviewed during that period.... So if the KCC follows the same suit in DV2014 , only up to 10k CN will be called for their interviews..............
 
Britsimon said:
AS had 23k selectees in 2014 and the highest Case Number is around 27k. AS Susie has explained there are holes between case numbers (especially after about 10-12k where Nepal and Iran cut off) and also as she explained one case can cover more than one applicant.
Click to expand...

Susi said in DV2013 there were 10k CN and 16 selectees... it's kind of understandable where there can be dependents with principal applicant... But Simon now you are telling in DV2014 there are 23k selectees and 27k CN.... How come???
 
nerandima said:
Susi said in DV2013 there were 10k CN and 16 selectees... it's kind of understandable where there can be dependents with principal applicant... But Simon now you are telling in DV2014 there are 23k selectees and 27k CN.... How come???
Click to expand...

He answered this already - big holes above 10-12k on the case numbers due to Nepal and Iran. If the case numbers only went that high to begin with in previous years you wouldn't have the same amount of holes.
 
nerandima said:
Susi said in DV2013 there were 10k CN and 16 selectees... it's kind of understandable where there can be dependents with principal applicant... But Simon now you are telling in DV2014 there are 23k selectees and 27k CN.... How come???
Click to expand...
It can work totaly oposite way !
Look at AF : 62k selected and cn 117000!
 
SusieQQQ said:
Again because of a huge number of holes
Click to expand...
morning!
Please correct me if I'm wrong: 20,000 selectees for Asia this year and 19xxx highest number seen so far means there are no holes and very few derivatives? (less than 1000)
 
nerandima said:
In DV 2013 it was CURRENT in August & September... Also in July AS cutoff was 9850 ... So according to you there were about 1k (106XX - 9850 )interviews were held during the August & September ??? So small number of people were interviewed during that period.... So if the KCC follows the same suit in DV2014 , only up to 10k CN will be called for their interviews..............
Click to expand...

Is this because of the large number of Holes??
 
I think around 1k selectees were held in aug/sep in dv 13, on the other hand, they had consumed more time for clearing the APs. But this year is totally different, how will they do in aug/sep, i mean either clearing APs or select new cutoff or current?.... what do you think guys>? this year they have selected 23k selectee and only 9k selectees are provided a chance of interview from AS region upto july. we have two more months and the highest case number claimed is 27k. so, in this condition, kcc will add more fresh selectee or will give a chance for AP/Ready?..I am in confusion.
 
clover said:
morning!
Please correct me if I'm wrong: 20,000 selectees for Asia this year and 19xxx highest number seen so far means there are no holes and very few derivatives? (less than 1000)
Click to expand...

Yes you are wrong. The 20k includes derivatives. Please read back in this thread about why case numbers are not consecutive.
 
Britsimon said:
Yes you are wrong. The 20k includes derivatives. Please read back in this thread about why case numbers are not consecutive.
Click to expand...
I must've read every single post on the net since may 1rst and i'm afraid there are still things i'm not getting. Excuse me for repeating the question: 1- if there are 20.000 selectees and case numbers up to 19xxx that means there are no holes no? 2- if there are 20.000 selectees including family members and 19xxx cn (and all family members share the same CN) that means that there are few derivatives? Please help me get this point..although i still have a year to figure it out, it would be great if i did now:))
 
clover said:
I must've read every single post on the net since may 1rst and i'm afraid there are still things i'm not getting. Excuse me for repeating the question: 1- if there are 20.000 selectees and case numbers up to 19xxx that means there are no holes no? 2- if there are 20.000 selectees including family members and 19xxx cn (and all family members share the same CN) that means that there are few derivatives? Please help me get this point..although i still have a year to figure it out, it would be great if i did now:))
Click to expand...

Ok exemple:
2015AS1 has 4 family members.
2015AS2 doesn't exist(hole)
2015AS3 doesn't exist(hole)
2015AS4 has 4 family members.
2015AS5 (hole)
2015SA6 has 5 family members.
2015AS7 (hole)
2015AS8(hole)
2015AS9 has 3 family members.
2015AS10 only 1

So from cn1 to cn10 you can get 17 numbers including families runing for a visa.
The family members share the same CN as the principal applicant.
 
G
vladek said:
So from from 1 to 10 you can get 0 applicant or you can get more than 10 !!! Simple
Click to expand...
thx Vladek. I think i got it. So there might be many holes between cn1 and cn 19xxx which got compensated by family members. And it just turned out that the totals match this year for asia : cn=number of selectees, that s what got me confused. Another thing: i was reading one of your replies on another thread, telling an asian selectee that numbers might come up earlier in dv2015 because there are fewer selectees.. But there are more selectees in asia dv2015 than in previous years
 
clover said:
G

thx Vladek. I think i got it. So there might be many holes between cn1 and cn 19xxx which got compensated by family members. And it just turned out that the totals match this year for asia : cn=number of selectees, that s what got me confused. Another thing: i was reading one of your replies on another thread, telling an asian selectee that numbers might come up earlier in dv2015 because there are fewer selectees.. But there are more selectees in asia dv2015 than in previous years
Click to expand...
That's right ! You got it now.
About my other reply, remember one think I ''presume'' that less selectees will lead asia to current in 2015.
Because it still depends on the response rate of the winners! If the first 10k respond to the interview than the other half will lose out ! Right?
In previous years they procceded with second draws, to make sure the quotas are filled up, and still some visas got wasted.
so IMO that's why the took extra in 2014 and that was a bit too much(140k), and they reajusted it to (125k) in 2015.
Its all speculations...btw
 
vladek said:
That's right ! You got it now.
About my other reply, remember one think I ''presume'' that less selectees will lead asia to current in 2015.
Because it still depends on the response rate of the winners! If the first 10k respond to the interview than the other half will lose out ! Right?
In previous years they procceded with second draws, to make sure the quotas are filled up, and still some visas got wasted.
so IMO that's why the took extra in 2014 and that was a bit too much(140k), and they reajusted it to (125k) in 2015.
Its all speculations...btw
Click to expand...
Sure! Don't worry i know it all is speculation:) i'm not sure where i read that in 2014 asia got 16 000 selectees. But now i added them up and they turned out 23 000.. And this year it s 20 000. So now i got everything:)) thank you for your patience and for helping!! Have a great WE. cheers to all!
 
vladek said:
That's right ! You got it now.
About my other reply, remember one think I ''presume'' that less selectees will lead asia to current in 2015.
Because it still depends on the response rate of the winners! If the first 10k respond to the interview than the other half will lose out ! Right?
In previous years they procceded with second draws, to make sure the quotas are filled up, and still some visas got wasted.
so IMO that's why the took extra in 2014 and that was a bit too much(140k), and they reajusted it to (125k) in 2015.
Its all speculations...btw
Click to expand...

Glad you shed light on the subject for Clover.

About 2015, going current, we should certainly wait for the stats from 2014, but I have already posted that the difference from 125 to 140 is not very much given two things. 1 Nigeria is out, 2 high entry countries now limited to 5k (not 6k). Those two factors alone add up to 15k...
 
Britsimon said:
Glad you shed light on the subject for Clover.

About 2015, going current, we should certainly wait for the stats from 2014, but I have already posted that the difference from 125 to 140 is not very much given two things. 1 Nigeria is out, 2 high entry countries now limited to 5k (not 6k). Those two factors alone add up to 15k...
Click to expand...

I missed your previous post on this. I agree at face value Nigeria going out is significant - high entries and high refusal rates - and so could "compensate" for a chunk of the decline in selectees. But, we would have had a similar "adjustment" - in fact probably a bigger effect - when Bangladesh went out, and I don't recall much of an adjustment in overall selectees then? (- possibly faulty memory so open to correction)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top