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DV2004 and DV2005 cut off on Sept

Kayend

Kayend

Active Member
In DV2004 and DV2005, EU, AF and AS have a final cut off in Sept but if you look at the statistic published, the visas issued is around 48k. So that mean it doesn't hit the global limit and it still have at least 1k visas left but why need to put a final cut off when you still have visa available?
The only reason I can think of is that KCC set a final cut off in Sept because they anticipated that the interviews scheduled is good enough to reach the global quota but it turn out to be more fall out cases. So the question is this, can it happen again in 2014?
 
Kayend said:
In DV2004 and DV2005, EU, AF and AS have a final cut off in Sept but if you look at the statistic published, the visas issued is around 48k. So that mean it doesn't hit the global limit and it still have at least 1k visas left but why need to put a final cut off when you still have visa available?
The only reason I can think of is that KCC set a final cut off in Sept because they anticipated that the interviews scheduled is good enough to reach the global quota but it turn out to be more fall out cases. So the question is this, can it happen again in 2014?
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i dont think so they dont wanna make another mistake agane first for the 140 notifcations and sec to d a cuttoff as past years its better go current and miss few high CN sclectees like wat hapend last year to iran i might be wrong dono
 
Kayend said:
In DV2004 and DV2005, EU, AF and AS have a final cut off in Sept but if you look at the statistic published, the visas issued is around 48k. So that mean it doesn't hit the global limit and it still have at least 1k visas left but why need to put a final cut off when you still have visa available?
The only reason I can think of is that KCC set a final cut off in Sept because they anticipated that the interviews scheduled is good enough to reach the global quota but it turn out to be more fall out cases. So the question is this, can it happen again in 2014?
Click to expand...

It's certainly possible. It was clearly a miscalculation given the final amount by which they missed the quota. They can never foresee the future exactly. So yes, especially given the large amount of selectees this year, it is entirely possible.

I disagree however that the alternative is just to go current and then cancel interviews if necessary. I can see them doing for this for one country maybe - although I would still wager Iran last year was a miscalculation and not "just go current" - but not for the entire lottery. Making all numbers current means they have to schedule interviews for everyone who has sent in forms and not yet been interviewed, as well as physically sending the files to the embassies. Apart from the (major) hassle for KCC and the consulates of doing this for potentially thousands of people unnecessarily, there is also the angle that every DV interview slot reduces a slot available for another immigrant visa interview; don't forget there is an overwhelmingly larger amount of those to get through every year. I just don't see any logical reason for KCC to make case numbers "current" in the visa bulletin unless it is pretty sure it has enough visas to meet demand.
 
I agree with Susie. If they go current it's because they think they will have enough visas including Aos and AP
They might be wrong exceptionally but not for all. If they think they won't have enough visas they will keep a cut off
 
Yeah, I've also been wondering about the same thing, I've been going back through the previous years and for example according to CEAC, the last CN to be issued a visa in DV-2013 was 10682 although in the September VB Asia was current, I find it highly unlikely that the highest CN to apply was 10682, so maybe CURRENT is a bit of a "sketchy" term..
What do you guys think?
 
FSW2015 said:
Yeah, I've also been wondering about the same thing, I've been going back through the previous years and for example according to CEAC, the last CN to be issued a visa in DV-2013 was 10682 although in the September VB Asia was current, I find it highly unlikely that the highest CN to apply was 10682, so maybe CURRENT is a bit of a "sketchy" term..
What do you guys think?
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Well, care to explain why you think it was "highly unlikely" that that was the highest CN to apply? You do realise there are about 40% fewer selectees in DV2013 right?
 
SusieQQQ said:
Well, care to explain why you think it was "highly unlikely" that that was the highest CN to apply? You do realise there are about 40% fewer selectees in DV2013 right?
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I'm sorry I was just trying to ask a question, I'm no expert in these matters and I'd be glad to be kindly corrected, all I know that in DV-2013, 16,045 applicants from Asia were selected for further processing but I've been trying to find what the highest CN was, and also some older CEAC sheets but so far I've found nothing . And quite frankly, I really hope that CURRENT means what they say it really means for as you can see I have a pretty high CN. Thanks anyway..
 
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FSW2015 said:
I'm sorry I was just trying to ask a question, I'm no expert in these matters and I'd be glad to be kindly corrected, all I know that in DV-2013, 16,045 applicants from Asia were selected for further processing but I've trying to find what the highest CN was, and also some older CEAC sheets but so far I've found nothing . And quite frankly, I really hope that CURRENT means what they say it really means for as you can see I have a pretty high CN. Thanks anyway..
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To paraphrase what you've said, you really hope current means what the Visa Bulletin says it means ;)

I think it was perfectly fair to ask you why you stated something was "highly unlikely" when you hadn't explained it? Anyway now that you have explained it I can see why you came to that conclusion - and explain it for you :) .The numbers are total selectees including dependents. So 16000 among approx 10000 case numbers, implies 1.6 people per case number, sounds perfectly reasonable?
 
SusieQQQ said:
To paraphrase what you've said, you really hope current means what the Visa Bulletin says it means ;)

I think it was perfectly fair to ask you why you stated something was "highly unlikely" when you hadn't explained it? Anyway now that you have explained it I can see why you came to that conclusion - and explain it for you :) .The numbers are total selectees including dependents. So 16000 among approx 10000 case numbers, implies 1.6 people per case number, sounds perfectly reasonable?
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Thanks for your answer, it is reasonable and you have given me a large dose of hope! I didn't know about the dependents thing.
Thanks again and wish you the best of luck!
 
FSW2015 said:
Thanks for your answer, it is reasonable and you have given me a large dose of hope! I didn't know about the dependents thing.
Thanks again and wish you the best of luck!
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I've been through this all already, green card in hand ;) but good luck to you and hope you get current!
 
Dear folks,,
I wish everything is great un everyone's own life regardless of the dv process...
I have a question... Is it true that the highest # in As received a visa is 10,6++ in 2013??? What about numbers above that given As went current??is it posible that higher # interviews were cancelled??
 
hopenewsunn said:
Dear folks,,
I wish everything is great un everyone's own life regardless of the dv process...
I have a question... Is it true that the highest # in As received a visa is 10,6++ in 2013??? What about numbers above that given As went current??is it posible that higher # interviews were cancelled??
Click to expand...
Have you read the posts above??? Specifically #6-#11?
 
SusieQQQ said:
You understood correctly. So there were no numbers higher than that to be cancelled .
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But listen,
As far as i know, AS had around 16k selectees last year... How come the highest CN 10,5++ has beed issued a visa and you say there were no numbers above that number??
 
hopenewsunn said:
But listen,
As far as i know, AS had around 16k selectees last year... How come the highest CN 10,5++ has beed issued a visa and you say there were no numbers above that number??
Click to expand...

I don't know for sure what the highest issued number was or what the highest number that processed forms was. But to explain again: 16000 (approx) selectees includes principals and dependents. Each case number is per family, not per individual. So 10000 case numbers (approx) among 16000 selectees implies an average of 1.6 people per case number which is perfectly reasonable, in fact it is probably low, but that would be made up for by holes in the numbers. Say (assumption) in reality probably more like an average of 2 people per case number. This sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Why doesn't it sound reasonable to you?
 
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