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DV14 Asia Prediction - Discussion (Using CEAC data)

Kayend

Kayend

Active Member
Prediction of the case # cut off for Asia
Nepal - Case # (14k-15k)
Iran - Case # (10k)
Others - Case # 20k - 23k

Prediction for visa issued
Nepal - 3500
Iran -2000-2500
Others - 3000 - 3500

Assumption:
1. Asia region quota is 9k.
2. Nepal hit country limit by 10-11k, so case # after 11k held by Nepalese will consider as holes.
3. Iran will not hit their country limit due to high AP rate. In DV13, Iran can hit their country limit because it has 6k out of 16k selectees but in DV14, it has 23k selectees so when AP returned back to pool might be use for others.
4. After 15k case #, it might only have 300 selectees per 1000 case # with the assumption of the selection will ignore any Iran and Nepal after both country has reached 6k+ selectees.

Other predictions or ideas are welcome.
 
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kayend said:
Prediction of the case # cut off for Asia
Nepal - Case # (10k-11k)
Iran - Case # (10k)
Others - Case # 20k - 23k

Prediction for visa issued
Nepal - 3500
Iran -2000-2500
Others - 3000 - 3500

Assumption:
1. Asia region quota is 9k.
2. Nepal hit country limit by 10-11k, so case # after 11k held by Nepalese will consider as holes.
3. Iran will not hit their country limit due to high AP rate. In DV13, Iran can hit their country limit because it has 6k out of 16k selectees but in DV14, it has 23k selectees so when AP returned back to pool might be use for others.
4. After 15k case #, it might only have 300 selectees per 1000 case # with the assumption of the selection will ignore any Iran and Nepal after both country has reached 6k+ selectees.

Other predictions or ideas are welcome.
Click to expand...

Breakdown for countries other than Nepal and Iran.

1000 visa issued in first 10k case #.
1000 visa issued from 10k to 15k case #. (Because Iran max case is below 10k)
1000 visa issued from 15k to 23k case #. (Because both Iran and Nepal do not have any case # in this range).
 
kayend said:
1000 visa issued from 15k to 23k case #. (Because both Iran and Nepal do not have any case # in this range).
Click to expand...

Kayend what about that iranian guy from tahran cn38xxx and the other nepalese women cn35xxxthat rayme claims knowing her ?
 
vladek15425 said:
Kayend what about that iranian guy from tahran cn38xxx and the other nepalese women cn35xxxthat rayme claims knowing her ?
Click to expand...

I am not sure whether those are genuine case #, even they do it doesn't make much different if both Nepal and Iran is under a special cut off. Based on the current distribution of case # for the first 3700 is as follows:

Nepal - 41.8%
Iran - 40.8%
Others - 17.4%

So, if not special cut off for Asia, I don't think KCC can reach the regional quota due to the above distribution. So, they have to have the special cut off as soon as possible. As I said before, what puzzled me is that why they don't do it last VB.
 
vladek15425 said:
Do you think if iran and nepal hit the country limit than asia will go current?
Click to expand...

Nepal, yes. Based on the CEAC data they have 80-90% success rate and from 6000 to hit 3500 is easy.

Iran, I would say no because of their high AP cases. Most of the AP cases reside in Ankara and due to the work load I don't think they can clear the AP cases fast enough before the regional quota exhausted. Even Ankara US Embassy web site mentioned that it will takes 3-6 months to clear AP cases due to high AP cases. Remember, AP cases not only for DV visa.
 
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Nepal, yes. Based on the CEAC data they have 80-90% success rate and from 6000 to hit 3500 is easy.

May be not even if you consider lot ofderivatives ! I don't know if the case in nepal, but on AF show most of the CN with 2+ .....
 
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vladek15425 said:
Nepal, yes. Based on the CEAC data they have 80-90% success rate and from 6000 to hit 3500 is easy.
May not even if you consider the derivatives ! I don't know if the case in nepal, but on AF show most of the CN with 2+ .....
Click to expand...

All my calculation is based on selectees so it includes derivatives.
 
Sorry kayend I edited my post above !

I know you included the derivatives! My point was ; if in nepal the following
Interviews will beconducted with lot of derivatives like its the case in AF region,
The country limit will be hit sooner than the numbers your provided...
 
vladek15425 said:
Sorry kayend I edited my post above !

I know you included the derivatives! My point was ; if in nepal the following
Interviews will beconducted with lot of derivatives like its the case in AF region,
The country limit will be hit sooner than the numbers your provided...
Click to expand...

I just do a simple calculation of taking 4000 out of 6000 selectees with the max Nepal Case # of 15k. So it about 10k-11k case # that covered 4k+ selectees.
 
kayend said:
I am not sure whether those are genuine case #, even they do it doesn't make much different if both Nepal and Iran is under a special cut off. Based on the current distribution of case # for the first 3700 is as follows:

Nepal - 41.8%
Iran - 40.8%
Others - 17.4%

So, if not special cut off for Asia, I don't think KCC can reach the regional quota due to the above distribution. So, they have to have the special cut off as soon as possible. As I said before, what puzzled me is that why they don't do it last VB.
Click to expand...

Where did you get this info from? I'm specifically looking for the number of issued/AP visas per country.

Thanks!
 
kayend said:
Iran, I would say no because of their high AP cases. Most of the AP cases reside in Ankara and due to the work load I don't think they can clear the AP cases fast enough before the regional quota exhausted. Even Ankara US Embassy web site mentioned that it will takes 3-6 months to clear AP cases due to high AP cases. Remember, AP cases not only for DV visa.
Click to expand...

OK. I did some analysis to get an idea of how long the AP for Iranian cases take. Short answer: 40 days ballpark.

The details follow:

Assumption 1) If the case is in 'YRV' or 'ANK' but has an AS number, almost certainly it's an Iran case. (this excludes Iran cases in Abu Dhabi, but that doesn't significantly impact the analysis)

Assumption 2) I came up with an Expected Interview Date for each case.

I first found the "current" month for each case. Then assumed an interview date at the middle of the "current" month (as an average). I'll spare some minor details there.​

Assumption 3) If the case is 'Issued', the difference between Last Update Date and the Expected Interview Date is how long it took the cases to be approved (or Approval Time). If the case is 'AP', this difference is how long the case has been on AP (or AP Wait Time).


Iran cases in 'ANK' and 'YRV' are:

'Issued': 75 rows
'AP': 116 rows
'Ready': 173 rows​

Notice that some of the 'Issued' cases could have been 'AP' cases that were resolved. So they are a mix of 'Immediate Approval' and 'AP'.

As time goes, cases fall off from 'AP' into 'Issued', but new cases will be added to 'AP'. So the on-going average of the 'AP Wait Time' (from above) should indicate how long cases stay on 'AP'. The average came out at 42 days.

Now for cross-checking, I looked at it from a different angle. For 'Issued' cases, I assumed that if the 'Approval Time' was longer than 15 days, then the case had to be on 'AP'. Using that assumption I could further break the 75 'Issued' cases into: 15 'Immediate Approval' and 60 'Formerly on AP'.

I took the average approval time for the 'Formerly on AP'. Lo and behold, the average came out at 40 days! Nice cross-check there I'd say.

:) Let me know if you need more help to make sense of it.
 
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very good analysis but i think Nepal will not get limit before iran and reason behind it i think is high sucess rate of nepal as you know except nepal other has many cases of refusal and AP so if Nepal gets limit than it might be difficult for kcc to cover region qouta and also low AP rate will easier their work load too
kayend said:
Prediction of the case # cut off for Asia
Nepal - Case # (10k-11k)
Iran - Case # (10k)
Others - Case # 20k - 23k

Prediction for visa issued
Nepal - 3500
Iran -2000-2500
Others - 3000 - 3500

Assumption:
1. Asia region quota is 9k.
2. Nepal hit country limit by 10-11k, so case # after 11k held by Nepalese will consider as holes.
3. Iran will not hit their country limit due to high AP rate. In DV13, Iran can hit their country limit because it has 6k out of 16k selectees but in DV14, it has 23k selectees so when AP returned back to pool might be use for others.
4. After 15k case #, it might only have 300 selectees per 1000 case # with the assumption of the selection will ignore any Iran and Nepal after both country has reached 6k+ selectees.

Other predictions or ideas are welcome.
Click to expand...
 
The high success rate of Nepal will more likely lead to either early cut-off or will reach the country limit earlier than Iran. It will very soon reach the 3500 mark, but the question is when? If we see at the latest data, then every 1000 case number there is 300 visas allocated to the Nepalese, in this way Nepal will reach 3300 visas at around 11,000. But it is just an assumption based on the data till now...might go in another direction but still there is high chance that not all 6000 will get a chance for the Interview.
 
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