• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

DV13 Asia's Litmus Paper

E

enchevetrement

Registered Users (C)
Disclaimer:
This message contains speculations and guesses. Do not take any action based on what is written here.

Back to the subject: this is not a new idea - it was mentioned in other posts in this forum.

Our Litmus Paper is the US embassy in Ankara. Lucky for us it publishes the list of DV case numbers and interviews dates.

In October there were no AS interviews. In November there are total of 128 interviews (9 per day). 106 of them are AS cases. The rest are EU.

The highest EU Case Number handled in November is ~7000 which matches the November cutoff for Europe.

Highest CN for AS is ~930. Way below the 2350 cutoff.

My theory is this: the embassy can handle ~1000 case numbers from Asia a month. because of this and because they are in a delay of 1 month, this causes a delay in handling the Asia cases and hence, the low Asia cutoffs. They simply need Ankara to catch up.

The highest CN for Asia is now ~10k-11K.
The advance rate of Ankara is ~1K case numbers a month starting November.
There are 11 months from November 1st to September 30th

Just do the math...

Asia cutoff for January: ~3000
For February ~4k
For Mars ~5k
etc.

simply look at the Ankara site and see what is the highest CN handled each month and this will give you an idea of what will be the next cutoff.

For example:
If they handle ~1k case numbers in December then January cutoff will be ~3k
If they handle ~1.5k case numbers in December then January cutoff will be ~3.5k
If they handle much less than ~1k in December then we should start worrying...

Pay attention: this is about the max case number handled in Ankara, not the number of cases...

http://www.usemb-ankara.org.tr/consular/english/schedule_dv.html


---

Some background:
The US embassy in Ankara is one of two embassies that have Farsi-speaking consular officers. The other is Dubai.
Since there is no US embassy in Iran, most Iranians are handles in Ankara and Dubai.
In October there are no AS interviews in Ankara. In November they handle 106 interviews of case numbers 1 to 927.
The 106 are spread linearly among the 927 case numbers. Average interval is 9 so I assume that they handle up to case number ~936
Case number 930 represents ~530 cases. Around 37% of selected entries from Asia are Iranians so in 530 cases we should find ~200 Iranians.
Ankara handled 106 so the rest are being handled elsewhere (Dubai?) or simply did not return their forms.
The Ankara data and my estimation of Visas per region, are here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An4rAwgMcUqLdExWcHhSZ2dIRjR3bzhTNTcyV3JIbFE
 
enchevetrement said:
Disclaimer:
This message contains speculations and guesses. Do not take any action based on what is written here.

Back to the subject: this is not a new idea - it was mentioned in other posts in this forum.

Our Litmus Paper is the US embassy in Ankara. Lucky for us it publishes the list of DV case numbers and interviews dates.

In October there were no AS interviews. In November there are total of 128 interviews (9 per day). 106 of them are AS cases. The rest are EU.

The highest EU Case Number handled in November is ~7000 which matches the November cutoff for Europe.

Highest CN for AS is ~930. Way below the 2350 cutoff.

My theory is this: the embassy can handle ~1000 case numbers from Asia a month. because of this and because they are in a delay of 1 month, this causes a delay in handling the Asia cases and hence, the low Asia cutoffs. They simply need Ankara to catch up.

The highest CN for Asia is now ~10k-11K.
The advance rate of Ankara is ~1K case numbers a month starting November.
There are 11 months from November 1st to September 30th

Just do the math...

Asia cutoff for January: ~3000
For February ~4k
For Mars ~5k
etc.

simply look at the Ankara site and see what is the highest CN handled each month and this will give you an idea of what will be the next cutoff.

For example:
If they handle ~1k case numbers in December then January cutoff will be ~3k
If they handle ~1.5k case numbers in December then January cutoff will be ~3.5k
If they handle much less than ~1k in December then we should start worrying...

Pay attention: this is about the max case number handled in Ankara, not the number of cases...

http://www.usemb-ankara.org.tr/consular/english/schedule_dv.html


---

Some background:
The US embassy in Ankara is one of two embassies that have Farsi-speaking consular officers. The other is Dubai.
Since there is no US embassy in Iran, most Iranians are handles in Ankara and Dubai.
In October there are no AS interviews in Ankara. In November they handle 106 interviews of case numbers 1 to 927.
The 106 are spread linearly among the 927 case numbers. Average interval is 9 so I assume that they handle up to case number ~936
Case number 930 represents ~530 cases. Around 37% of selected entries from Asia are Iranians so in 530 cases we should find ~200 Iranians.
Ankara handled 106 so the rest are being handled elsewhere (Dubai?) or simply did not return their forms.
The Ankara data and my estimation of Visas per region, are here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An4rAwgMcUqLdExWcHhSZ2dIRjR3bzhTNTcyV3JIbFE
Click to expand...

What about the other AS states & their estimated case-loads;any info on that?

Regards.
 
After my analysis, past DV never average case number growth from January to September compare with October to December

For example
October + 450 = November
November + 350 = December

According to past history, the biggest jump will be + 75% only, that mean 400 x 1.75 = 700, January cut off is 3400, February is 4100. but this is appear only once (DV-2010), the second high is jump 50% only, that mean 600 (DV-2009), January cut off is 3300, February is 3900

The normal case like DV-2006, DV-2007, the jump is only -10% ~ +10%
 
immgrat said:
After my analysis, past DV never average case number growth from January to September compare with October to December

For example
October + 450 = November
November + 350 = December

According to past history, the biggest jump will be + 75% only, that mean 400 x 1.75 = 700, January cut off is 3400, February is 4100. but this is appear only once (DV-2010), the second high is jump 50% only, that mean 600 (DV-2009), January cut off is 3300, February is 3900

The normal case like DV-2006, DV-2007, the jump is only -10% ~ +10%
Click to expand...

(Un)fortunately,history repeats itself,records are meant to be broken;& exceptions do occur:at least we can take solace in that.
 
Obeezyb said:
(Un)fortunately,history repeats itself,records are meant to be broken;& exceptions do occur:at least we can take solace in that.
Click to expand...

I agree with you. This year everything has been going on strange. Nothing has really been according to previous trends and patterns. Let's hope for the best!
 
A simple observation: if they could distribute those 50k visas within one month they probably would have done so.

The number of visas per region is determined before the fiscal year starts (act 203, if you manage to decipher it - http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/...-0-0-29/0-0-0-1059/0-0-0-1135.html#0-0-0-1343) :confused:

So it makes sense that the advance rate per region is dictated by (a) the ability to process the cases and (b) number of visas left for that region

This year Bangladesh is not in the game, and it seems that the case numbers for Asia (and probably also for Africa) represent the ordinal number of the Visa in the region.

My assumption is ~8K visas for Asia and they notified up to case number ~10k-11k. So that about sums it up...

By the way about this CURRENT thing - someone posted a message a while ago that CURRENT means 'no processing of new numbers'. Reality so far contradicts this. For example, last year EU was current at 40,000 but in Ankara they interviewed 45,188 in September...

so not to worry - everyone will get a chance... :)

Visas per region: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0An4rAwgMcUqLdExWcHhSZ2dIRjR3bzhTNTcyV3JIbFE

---

"The paradox of time is that we live it forward, but understand it backward" - Kierkegaard
 
Go Ankara !

Ankara site updated. January numbers reached 3,226

About 1200 a month

Would be surprised if February cutoff for Asia is less that 4,000 (would guess at least 4,200)
 
enchevetrement said:
Go Ankara !

Ankara site updated. January numbers reached 3,226

About 1200 a month

Would be surprised if February cutoff for Asia is less that 4,000 (would guess at least 4,200)
Click to expand...

Thanks bro for sharing this good news with the Asians.God bless you. I also have high hopes regarding the upcoming bulletin!
 
gabam said:
Thanks buddy! Now have another guess why I am so hopeful, any ideas? And do you see any chance for me being current in the upcoming bulletin?
Click to expand...

You are very lucky my friend ! If you are not current in February then you would be in Mars. You are going to have a lovely spring :)
 
Ankara Notes

Some points to ponder about the Ankara list

* Looking at the graph (link) we can see two sparse areas, where the jump between the numbers is relatively high. I wonder what causeed this. Maybe a bunch of families with ~50 children each :)

* There are duplicates - Interviews which were rescheduled. Maybe they had a form missing or something like this and got another chance.
For the AS, the duplicates are 1.4% of the cases
For the EU they are 11.3% of the cases

* Number of AS cases is 350. Given the number of selected Iranians, we would expect 683 Iranians for the maximal case number 3226 - so this is ~50% which makes sense because probably the other 50% have their interview in Dubai

* From the above it is very clear that I am bored and can't wait for my interview which won't happen before June ! (so it seems)

best of luck to us all !
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ankara Calling

While waiting my turn (which is not expected before way into summer), I pass the time contemplating the interviews progress from the US embassy in Ankara site

The site was last updated on January 31st.
The progress graph shows a gap of about 240 in March: last case number handled is 4,959 while the March cutoff is 5200.

This is not good news... It may indicate that April cutoff for Asia would be a bit low, to compensate for this gap (hope I'm wrong...) unless those cases (which represent about 50 Iranian selectees) are being interviewed elsewhere.

The good news is that in March they will have 22 days of interviews - highest per month so far:

MonthInterviewsInterview Days
Nov 1210816
Dec 1210711
Jan 1313414
Feb 1321516
Mar 1317022



Another, unrelated, observation: take a look at the interviews by date graph . Notice something peculiar? the interviews are not done in the order of the case numbers. Very strange...
What they do is this: they schedule the first CN on the first day, the second on the second day and so on. Then when they reach the last day of the month they start over.

They do this only for the AS cases. The EU cases are handled according to the case number order - lower case numbers are interviewed before the higher numbers.

Another observation - and this is very speculative, it seems that about 10% of the expected cases are 'missing'. It can be that they doing AOS or that they are being interviewed in other countries. In any case they are MIA (Missing In Ankara :))
 
Hmm great observations, once again....

by any chance do you know the what %age of them generally are AOS ? Just going by this forum it would seemed quite a lot.

(Even though %age of actual applicants if a random sample would let you believe that this ratio should be same as the number of people of given country in US by the number of people in their country (atleast eligible for DV), but some biases are there like people already in US being more aware about the DV, not doing many mistakes in DV forms and more importantly already exhibiting their intent of staying in US)

Given that Ankara consulate handles cases from so many other countries, wouldn't have they increased the capacity (interviewing windows) to accommodate the extra cases. (by case number growth it seems that they haven't and I am asking myself what could have stopped them, I don't think fund could be the problem)

by the way, what range is your case number in ?
 
Numbers numbers numbers....

Hi kavisiromani

I think the AOS percentage worldwide is about 3-3.5%.

There are two official publications that report the number of DV visas given each year:

One is titled "Immigrant Number Use for Visa Issuances and Adjustments of Status in the Diversity Immigrant Category Fiscal Years 2003-2012" (accessible from here)

The other is titled "Table II Classes of Immigrants Issued Visas at Foreign Service Posts Fiscal Years 2008 - 2012", class "DV Diversity Immigrants"

Both documents report different numbers for the amount of DV visas. I plotted the numbers on this graph

Since the first has AOS in its title and the second is related to "Foreign Service Posts" I assume that the number of AOS explains the difference, which is 3-3.5%

Note the low number of visas distributed in 2012... I guess many did not receive the email notification and did not know that they were selected in the 2nd draw. And note also that is some years the number of visas exceeded 50k - 51,312 in 2010 (and 55,058 in 95, before NACARA)


When I look at the graph of AS case numbers handled in Ankara, I see that it is has several groups with a jump between each group. I guess that this is because some (of the Iranians?) are redirected to Dubai for interview. In each group the number of interviews is ~10% less than what I would expect given the number of selected Iranians and their companions. I wonder if AOS is the reason. In such case the number of AOS from Iran is very high in comparison to the rest of the world.

I believe that the vast majority of AS interviews in Ankara is of Iranians because of the simple fact: in October there were no As interviews at all. There were AF, and EU interviews but no AS. So my conclusion is that the vast majority are Iranians.


I still believe that either Ankara or Nepal (or both) dictates the advance rate of AS cutoffs because those places handle the majority of AS interviews. Alas, no information from Nepal to play with...

My number is ~8k and I don't expect an interview before July so I better be fully prepared when the day comes (I mean, if and when....)
 
Hmmm... Great Information.

Yes, I see your point regarding AOS.

Regarding 2012 being low in visas "I guess many did not receive the email notification and did not know that they were selected in the 2nd draw", I myself, along with my family had this tragedy. We lost the our "confirmation numbers" due to unfortunate HDD crash (and what foolish of me for having multiple backups but all in same hard-disk). I can imagine other people could have lost it too, after all for most of them it was just a print out.

I don't think Nepalese Embassy could be slowing down the Visa Processing, for a small country it has quite a lot of "consular windows". Nonetheless, after one month I will be in Nepal, I will try to find out more on this. As it turns out there is one third party 'agent', which is responsible for processing most (if not all) the DV forms (it's called E-Spot) thus it will be easy to get some picture from them.

On a different note, I seriously think you should put all your analysis, write ups, extremely useful graphs and other insights in a document, and compile it like a mini-handbook or a book if you will. Future generations of DV winners and enthusiasts will thank you forever.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top