DV Statistics.

[bobbb]

Here are some reflections about statistics. Any input you could add could be an asset for all of the forum readers.

I have a high case number (2005AF000439xx), and try to figure out my probability to get a green card.

Here is what I see for Africa:
DV-2000: 42422 winners, Sep 00 AF cut off # current
DV-2001: 39028 winners, Sep 01 AF cut off # current
DV-2002: 40141 winners, Sep 02 AF cut off # current
DV-2003: 39138 winners, Sep 03 AF cut off # 49350 ! !
Aug 03 AF cut off # 37200
DV-2004: 50341 winners, Sep 04 AF cut off # 35450
DV-2005: 45143 winners, Sep 05 AF cut off # unknown yet

So:
1. I don't understand why the DV-2003 AF cut off # is > # of winners !!!
2. Only 70% of AF DV-2004 winner got a green card.
3. My case # (2005AF 439xx) is very high as there has been only 45143 AF winner for DV-2005. But in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, every winner seems to have received a green card. But in 2004, only 70% (the lowest case numbers) have received a green card.
4. In 2005, the new jpg picture system have let the number of the lottery participant fall from 13 millions to 5 millions. I suppose the DV-2005 winners are more motivated this year to send back theirs files to KCC, as the other usual 8 millions participants have been to lazy to adapt to the new system. So cut off numbers will probably be much lower this year for every regional subdivision.

Again, any help is appreciated. Tks.

 

[rik-tik-tak]

1. I don't understand why the DV-2003 AF cut off # is > # of winners !!!

It very simple:

There are 110,000 selected candidates for 55,000 visas. Some of the selected drop off or never bother to file for whatever reasons. The cut-off numbers will have to be always bigger then the potential country limit, so the visas could be used.

2. Only 70% of AF DV-2004 winner got a green card.

Very logical - financial reasons, criminal background, not meeting the consular requirements, etc


HTH

 

[bobbb]

what you say if OFF SUBJECT.

1. No: you can't ask the number X to come and get an interview, if Y people have been drawn, with X>Y. Because number X has never been asked to return forms!
In 2000, 2001, and 2002, they say "current" wich means 100% of winners get a green card. "DV-2003 AF cut off # is > # of winners" means rate above 100%!!! (exactly 126%!!!).


2. That answer would have been correct if you were replying to the following sentence "100% of AF DV-2004 winners got a green card".
The more people have financial problems, criminal background problems, consular requirements problems, the more the rate shifts toward 100%.
But here we go the other way: the rate goes from 100% (2000 to 2003), to 70% now!

 

[mevakpor]

How does the case number 450xx seem?

My friend in Ghana has a case number similar to yours. We are sponsoring her to come to the US to be a nanny. I don't understand how the system works; is it possible that despite filling out all the forms and us sponsoring her, and even if she passes the interview etc., she may never get a visa?

And one other question (for anyone): assuming everything does go well, when do you think we can expect her in the US? We need her from August 2005.

Thanks in advance.

 

[bobbb]

High case number (44000/45000) will get interviews in August or September 05. It is possible that she will never get any interview (if AF cut off # is below her case #). In Case she gets an interview, she has to enter the US within 6 months.
You will find cut off numbers of the current month on the Visa Bulettin, published on the internet by the US gov.

As you can see, I tried to find statistics to figure out the probability we have to get an interview (and a green card). Let's hope we are going to get the same scenario we had in 2000, 2001, and 2002. If not, we will not get it.