DV 2021 Oceania Selectees

#21
Hi All,

I hope everyone is well =)

Has anybody submitted their required documents as of yet? I'm not sure how I obtain court record, does a transcript suffice, does anybody know?

Thanks
Soph
 
#22
I just got my AOS confirmation from KCC. I am OC3XXX.
In light of all the restrictions and changes to the GC DV, do you think that the fact that we are in the US and already on a Visa that DV 2021 will be CURRENT when it opens in October 2020?
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#25
Do you think there is a good chance if we are already in the US that even though with a high OC3XXX CN, we will still make it with all the embassies around the world closing etc?
We have no idea how high the number really is until we see the selectee numbers. We also need to see whether or not the ban is extended after year end. In general, if overall visa take-up ends up being low again in the upcoming year then it is quite possible all numbers will go current at some stage. I think there are too many uncertainties for anyone to make a decent prediction now especially as we still don’t even know selectee numbers yet.
 
#26
We have no idea how high the number really is until we see the selectee numbers. We also need to see whether or not the ban is extended after year end. In general, if overall visa take-up ends up being low again in the upcoming year then it is quite possible all numbers will go current at some stage. I think there are too many uncertainties for anyone to make a decent prediction now especially as we still don’t even know selectee numbers yet.
Thank you. Where do we see the amount of selectee numbers and when will it officially come out for DV 2021? Thanks
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#27
Thank you. Where do we see the amount of selectee numbers and when will it officially come out for DV 2021? Thanks
We thought it would be in the August visa bulletin as in past years but it wasn’t (maybe because results came out a month later than usual?) so maybe in the September one.
 
#29
Hi all my OC people - how's everything feeling/going?
I went through all the OC threads for previous years and loved the community they had built to support each other through this process.
Wishing everyone best of luck and strength for patience!
My case no. is OC16XX
 
#30
Hi All,
Such a nervous waiting period compared to previous years. I was selected previously a few years ago and unfortunately my case number was high and unable to get an interview. Selected again for 2021 with a relatively low number (under 800) and now nervously waiting to see what happens with the Trump immigration restrictions and COVID. It will be a nightmare if a year from now the borders are still closed and we are unable to obtain an exemption to leave Australia. Even if we could our plan will be to activate the GC within the 6 months and come back for a year to get everything in order and son finishing school etc before we make big move. This will be costly with the hotel isolation period and time off work etc.
Is anyone else having the same thoughts?
 
#31
Hi All,
Such a nervous waiting period compared to previous years. I was selected previously a few years ago and unfortunately my case number was high and unable to get an interview. Selected again for 2021 with a relatively low number (under 800) and now nervously waiting to see what happens with the Trump immigration restrictions and COVID. It will be a nightmare if a year from now the borders are still closed and we are unable to obtain an exemption to leave Australia. Even if we could our plan will be to activate the GC within the 6 months and come back for a year to get everything in order and son finishing school etc before we make big move. This will be costly with the hotel isolation period and time off work etc.
Is anyone else having the same thoughts?
It's definitely an interesting year to win, that's for sure! This is my third time entering and first time winning. I studied in the states during a study abroad program and have been trying to get back there ever since. 800 is a good sign! I'm hoping my 16xx comes through.
I think just like anything, we all have to wait and stay as positive as possible. If 2020 has taught us anything, it's that everything can change!
The DV Visa is still the cheapest and quickest option so all the isolation (if still required by then), time, and money will be worth it
 
#32
Hey! OC20XX from NZ, super excited to have won this year but also super nervous with everything going on and being in the higher range so just keeping fingers crossed and not counting on anything!

Does anyone know if I should enter again in the 2022 lottery in case I miss out on an interview due to having a high case number? Or alternatively should my wife enter for 2022 even though she is included as my dependant on my application? I'm assuming probably not but couldn't find any info on the forums or online. Thanks! (Sorry if this has been asked a bunch before).
 

SusieQQQ

Well-Known Member
#33
Hey! OC20XX from NZ, super excited to have won this year but also super nervous with everything going on and being in the higher range so just keeping fingers crossed and not counting on anything!

Does anyone know if I should enter again in the 2022 lottery in case I miss out on an interview due to having a high case number? Or alternatively should my wife enter for 2022 even though she is included as my dependant on my application? I'm assuming probably not but couldn't find any info on the forums or online. Thanks! (Sorry if this has been asked a bunch before).
Yes, you can both enter again (Assuming each of you is eligible).
 

Aidyn

Well-Known Member
#35
Hey! OC20XX from NZ, super excited to have won this year but also super nervous with everything going on and being in the higher range so just keeping fingers crossed and not counting on anything!

Does anyone know if I should enter again in the 2022 lottery in case I miss out on an interview due to having a high case number? Or alternatively should my wife enter for 2022 even though she is included as my dependant on my application? I'm assuming probably not but couldn't find any info on the forums or online. Thanks! (Sorry if this has been asked a bunch before).
As Susie said yes you can enter again, I did the year I won, despite having a lower number it just felt safe to do so.
And having you both enter gives you two chances - this is not considered duplicate entries
 
#37
Hi all - apologies for the mini essay but I've tried to do some analysis on the historical CEAC data from DV2017-20 and tried to make some sense of the numbers. Take this with a grain of salt given how much uncertainty is associated with the numbers and how things change year to year but thought I would share it as it may be helpful to some one out there. Appreciate any input/feedback from the helpful experts out there if they have it. I suggest skipping to the bottom if numbers aren't your thing.

I've tried to work out the success rate of a case number i.e. the probability that an actual CN (i.e. not a hole) in a given year will either be issued a visa/visas or their case number becomes current. I think this is a good metric because it takes the year-to-year change in the holes rate out of consideration, for the most part. It is also conservative as no all the Ready status became Issued status.

On average in DV17-20: of the OC case numbers that became current, ~55% didn't respond, ~15% were refused visas and ~40% were successful. The success rate fluctuated between 38%-45%.

In DV21, there are 2815 selectees and the highest known case is ~3350. Assuming a derivative rate of 1.65 (selectees / applicant; based of previous years and Brit Simon guidance) then the number of actual cases / total cases is 51% (i.e. the hole rate is 49%).

Assuming there are 800 visas available for OC in DV21 (again this is an assumption and it fluctuates year to year; 800 is per Brit Simon), we can work out the numbers of case numbers required to fulfill the visa quota:

800 visas / 1.65 = 485 winning case numbers required
485 winning cases / 40% success rate = 1212 actual cases required
1212 actual cases / 0.51 (i.e. 1 - hole rate) = 2470 total cases required

So based on these assumptions the cutoff case number will be about 2470.

This number will be lower if the hole rate is lower, the success rate is higher and the issued OC visas is lower. Likewise it will be higher if the hole rate is higher (i.e. higher maximum CN), success rate is lower and OC visas issued is higher.

I don't think the hole rate will be any lower because a case number of ~3350 is known (unless thats not valid). The hole rate in DV20 was 59% vs. my assumption of 49% so I think its conservative (note the assumed derivative rate cancels itself out in my calculations so the assumption isn't a factor i.e. lower rate increases the # of winning cases required but lowers the hole rate). So the key variables are the success rate and the numbers of visas issued.

If the success rate is 45% and visas issued is 700 then the max CN is 1,920
If the success rate is 38% and visas issued is 850 then the max CN is 2,763

So this gives a range of 1900-2800.

I appreciate there are a lot of assumptions and anything can happen (e.g. Trump, embassies shut etc) but hopefully this helps. I'm heeding to the mantra of wait-and-see (with my fingers crossed) but also realistic that success is guaranteed (my case number is a touch over 2000).

Happy to answer any questions or hear any flaws in my methodology and good luck to everyone.
 

Britsimon

Super Moderator
#39
Hi All!

Congratulations everyone, I'm OC24XX. Also hoping there will be a drop in numbers. Will be submitting my DS form within the next week or so. Fingers crossed!

Cheers,
Alex :)
Why submit the form this early? There is NO advantage to doing so and there some reasons to NOT do so.
 
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