DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

[johnelliot344]

If DV is soo unfair, you should move on with your life shouldn't you?

i didn't realize how unfair it was until after the fact, and i already have......thanks for the advice

perhaps Britsimon is right, i simply don't understand the facts.........i'll take the time to read his explanations, either way it doesn't matter anymore

i wish you the best and i hope you have a long wonderful life annoying people with your awful unfunny jokes both online and in life, which is what you seem to enjoy most

 

[SusieQQQ]

I am not politically correct AT ALL.

Honestly, and I am putting this as gently as I can, you and SS don't seem to understand or acknowledge the basic facts. I have learned them,, and even though I once shared the same feelings I took the time to read, learn and understand. You haven't done that, so you are confused. But that is the absolute and unemotional truth.

So - first some points that you consistently don't seem to grasp. Every single point I am about to make is a fact - unarguable. So - read and understand.

• To the USA and regarding this process, an Asian is an Asian. They don't care what country the Asians come from. They are just Asians.
• The DV lottery process is organized by REGION. No one set up the lottery by country. It is REGIONAL. The lottery designers said we need diversity. We need to get people from Africa, Europe, Asia and so on. They excluded some COUNTRIES that were sending more than enough people and they said that no one country would have more than 7% of the global quota. But, the process is by region.
• More Nepalese get of their arses and apply for the lottery (and less of them make simple mistakes, and more of them respond). Same for Iranians. Now ANY country could achieve the same because the country does not matter.
• Every entry has the same chance of initial selection. For each 1000 selectees, the proportion of winners matches the proportion of entries (except where a country has exceptional disqualifications for cheating).
• Once selected every case is handled in order, and the order (in VB batches) determines who gets a chance for interview. ROA cases get the same chance of interview as Nepal or Iranian cases. There is no preference given to non ROA cases.

I don't have an emotional investment in this. I don't care whether you understand or not - but I just thought you should read the facts.

I had a good chuckle at the 'accusation' of you being politically correct!

You could rephrase "For each 1000 selectees, the proportion of winners matches the proportion of entries (except where a country has exceptional disqualifications for cheating)" more simply as "For each 1000 selectees, the proportion of winners matches the proportion of valid entries" (....suggested rephrasing for no other reason than someone else who doesn't understand may see it as somehow 'unfair'.)

 

[johnelliot344]

I am not politically correct AT ALL.

Honestly, and I am putting this as gently as I can, you and SS don't seem to understand or acknowledge the basic facts. I have learned them,, and even though I once shared the same feelings I took the time to read, learn and understand. You haven't done that, so you are confused. But that is the absolute and unemotional truth.

So - first some points that you consistently don't seem to grasp. Every single point I am about to make is a fact - unarguable. So - read and understand.

• To the USA and regarding this process, an Asian is an Asian. They don't care what country the Asians come from. They are just Asians.
• The DV lottery process is organized by REGION. No one set up the lottery by country. It is REGIONAL. The lottery designers said we need diversity. We need to get people from Africa, Europe, Asia and so on. They excluded some COUNTRIES that were sending more than enough people and they said that no one country would have more than 7% of the global quota. But, the process is by region.
• More Nepalese get of their arses and apply for the lottery (and less of them make simple mistakes, and more of them respond). Same for Iranians. Now ANY country could achieve the same because the country does not matter.
• Every entry has the same chance of initial selection. For each 1000 selectees, the proportion of winners matches the proportion of entries (except where a country has exceptional disqualifications for cheating).
• Once selected every case is handled in order, and the order (in VB batches) determines who gets a chance for interview. ROA cases get the same chance of interview as Nepal or Iranian cases. There is no preference given to non ROA cases.

I don't have an emotional investment in this. I don't care whether you understand or not - but I just thought you should read the facts.

ok i understand what you're saying, you're not saying anything i don't already know
EXCEPT.
but that last point... i don't consider myself stupid though i have done some stupid things in the past.

BUT for the life of me, i can't grasp how, you can tell people, Nepal/Iran gets guaranteed interviews, gets guaranteed lower numbers and ROA does not, and still consider the last point a "fact"
what am i missing?

i understand, you're not involved in the Lottery, you're giving free advice, you have no reason to lie......
but i guess when something doesn't work out that means a lot to you, you do prefer to have some answers and that's all i am trying to do, is to understand

if i am exhausting you, i apologize, of course you can ignore me, but i mean no ill will andit's admirable to you take so much time to do this.

ps: Sensai Sei explained it to me and i get it now (edit)

 

[johnelliot344]

I had a good chuckle at the 'accusation' of you being politically correct!

You could rephrase "For each 1000 selectees, the proportion of winners matches the proportion of entries (except where a country has exceptional disqualifications for cheating)" more simply as "For each 1000 selectees, the proportion of winners matches the proportion of valid entries" (....suggested rephrasing for no other reason than someone else who doesn't understand may see it as somehow 'unfair'.)

i am not accusing anybody of cheating, i have no bad feelings towards the Nepalese or Iranian people, unlike my fellow "non-understander" SS,

it just doesn't seem like a logical system that is used by KCC and i am trying to understand better, most Iran/Nepal winners have no idea of this mumble jumble anyway, they just won, why would i be mad at them.

once again, you put words in my mouth in order to make another one of your sarcastic remarks.........thumbs up....take a bow Sussie

 

[SusieQQQ]

i am not accusing anybody of cheating, i have no bad feelings towards the Nepalese or Iranian people, unlike my fellow "non-understander" SS,

it just doesn't seem like a logical system that is used by KCC and i am trying to understand better, most Iran/Nepal winners have no idea of this mumble jumble anyway, they just won, why would i be mad at them.

once again, you put words in my mouth in order to make another one of your sarcastic remarks.........thumbs up....take a bow Sussie

What the **** are you talking about? Where did I accuse you - or anyone - of cheating? Perhaps you need to re-read that post to understand what I've written before blowing up for absolutely nothing. I suggested to simon that he simplify some phrasing he used...that's all. Nothing to do with you at all in fact. From what I've seen so far you seem to have a perfectly good grasp of English so I don't see why you can't understand what I wrote.

 

[110moh]

boooooooooooom , really awful .

 

[Sensei-san]

if i am exhausting you, i apologize, of course you can ignore me, but i mean no ill will andit's admirable to you take so much time to do this.

please stop talking to these people...
... i haven't spoken with them again as there's no point, they do this to placate their ego as much as help people...
...they still condescend to you, ... they're trying to provoke an argument with their attitude...
...any IMPLICATION of disagreement will cause them to lose it, security issues i guess

...don't get sucked into a high school girl fight with these people..

I thought @Britsimon was spending most of his time placating his ego, condescending, provoking, having attitude and security issues only to get you sucked into a high school fight.

 

[110moh]

kcc thay have sent a report to let us what's going on UNACCEPTABLE !!!!!!

 

[johnelliot344]

What the **** are you taking about? Where did I accuse you - or anyone - of cheating? Perhaps you need to re-read that post to understand what I've written before blowing up for absolutely nothing. From what I've seen so far you seem to have a perfectly good grasp of English so I don't see why you can't understand what I wrote.

you accused ME of accusing Nepal/Iran of cheating, or you implied it anyway
it doesn't matter anyway

while i have your attention, i DO want to apologize because i remember that i did overreact to you several times in the past and i shouldn't have
i guess the stress of the waiting got to me

i am pretty chill if you know me in real life

but like i said, when something that means a lot to you doesn't work out, even though it doesn't matter too much, i still want some answers and that's all im trying to do, is to understand better
good day to you

 

[SusieQQQ]

you accused ME of accusing Nepal/Iran of cheating, or you implied it anyway
it doesn't matter anyway

while i have your attention, i DO want to apologize because i remember that i did overreact to you several times in the past and i shouldn't have
i guess the stress of the waiting got to me

i am pretty chill if you know me in real life

but like i said, when something that means a lot to you doesn't work out, even though it doesn't matter too much, i still want some answers and that's all im trying to do, is to understand better
good day to you

No, I didn't accuse you of anything at all. Seriously dude, read the post (britsimon's) that I was responding to, and then read my reply again... It had nothing at all to do with you, overt or implied, other than the first sentence where I laughed at him being called politically correct by you.

And yes I understand how stressful this process is and I can understand how disappointing it is (yes I really can, from a different but similar experience). So I'm happy to know you're chill IRL. I kinda hope there's a few people here who are different IRL

 

[johnelliot344]

I thought @Britsimon was spending most of his time placating his ego, condescending, provoking, having attitude and security issues only to get you sucked into a high school fight.

i didn't mention Britsimon in that post, i mention the board in general because of the way several people were making sarcastic remarks constantly towards one person for simply asking questions,
sure there have been times when i thought Certain people were being condescending and it irked me

but i'll admit that i have an overreaction streak as well and i probably typed some things that i shouldn't have typed because i got overly emotional because this means a lot to me, and for that, i apologize, i was wrong

i know Britsimon spends, probably TOO much time on this, and i shouldn't have overreacted

 

[Britsimon]

ok i understand what you're saying, you're not saying anything i don't already know
EXCEPT.
but that last point... i don't consider myself stupid though i have done some stupid things in the past.

BUT for the life of me, i can't grasp how, you can tell people, Nepal/Iran gets guaranteed interviews, gets guaranteed lower numbers and ROA does not, and still consider the last point a "fact"
what am i missing?

i understand, you're not involved in the Lottery, you're giving free advice, you have no reason to lie......
but i guess when something doesn't work out that means a lot to you, you do prefer to have some answers and that's all i am trying to do, is to understand

if i am exhausting you, i apologize, of course you can ignore me, but i mean no ill will andit's admirable to you take so much time to do this.

ps: Sensai Sei explained it to me and i get it now (edit)

Glad Sensei explained it. I have written this article below and another article linked from it that explains things.

http://britsimonsays.com/holes-theory-illustration/

To understand the ACTUAL numbers for Nepal we can compare to another Asian country. All the countries would have started with the same chance of winning - but obviously there are higher or lower disqualification rates for fraud etc in different countries.

Yemen had 51748 entries and got 724 winners. Their derivative rate was 1.47, meaning they had 493 winning (and valid) cases out of the 51748. That is 0.952%.

If we apply that winning rate to Nepal they would have had 5196 winning cases, at their derivative rate of 1.64. So - they would actually have had 8521 winners spread over the whole 19000 case numbers (448 people per 1000). Now as we know, they were actually cut off at 3801, so what that means is that every Nepal selectee/case after about CN 9000 was never notified of their win. That is 4720 people who had a zero chance because their number was too high - exactly like you.

Further, the Nepal cases were cutoff earlier than the rest of Asia because the 7% limit had been hit.

So - contrary to what has been said, a Nepal case has the same chance (OR LESS) than any ROA case. This is an accurate representation, so the reason I seem to "go on" about this is because some people like SS have had the facts made available to them and STILL refuse to accept the facts. That is willful ignorance, dressed up as logic.

 

[NaraLB]

I don't think what KCC did to RoA this year is fair. I mean, sure, they wanna give some chance to those who have been for months on AP and might clear soon, those deserve the chance, I can sympathize with them. But to actually hold the entire region with no increase AT ALL for some APs that MIGHT clear two months later doesn't soumd right to me. I wonder how those who will be placed on AP in August will be cleared in just a month or less.. Makes me question the so-called AP more than ever.

 

[johnelliot344]

I don't think what KCC did to RoA this year is fair. I mean, sure, they wanna give some chance to those who have been for months on AP and might clear soon, those deserve the chance, I can sympathize with them. But to actually hold the entire region with no increase AT ALL for some APs that MIGHT clear two months later doesn't soumd right to me. I wonder how those who will be placed on AP in August will be cleared in just a month or less.. Makes me question the so-called AP more than ever.

@NaraLB there's no penalty for not meeting the quota, they just say "oops" and move on, they just think it's better to give too little than to accidentally give too many visas away

The thing is, i really don't like wishing for other people's misfortune, and that's kind of what the Asia Region has been reduced to every year, if i get a high number fine some are lucky, some aren't, but this thing where i have to wish for Iranians for their dreams to be crushed just so i could have a chance was a bit........tiresome

u know i HATE people who blame race for everything, and it's probably ridiculous in this case
but i saw an American talk show last night and there was a guy talking about how he feels the American immigration system is racist

Asia, Africa, South America - surprisingly bad numbers
Europe, Austrailia - surprisingly good numbers

i am not saying anything really, but i can't say that the thought hasn't crossed my mind that the white regions got surprise good numbers and everyone else seem to get numbers that were just stunningly bad
just a thought, it's all it is, don't kill me for it

 

[NaraLB]

The thing is, i really don't like wishing for other people's misfortune, and that's kind of what the Asia Region has been reduced to every year, if i get a high number fine some are lucky, some aren't, but this thing where i have to wish for Iranians for their dreams to be crushed just so i could have a chance was a bit........tiresome

I agree, that's an unfortunate truth.

 

[Britsimon]

I don't think what KCC did to RoA this year is fair. I mean, sure, they wanna give some chance to those who have been for months on AP and might clear soon, those deserve the chance, I can sympathize with them. But to actually hold the entire region with no increase AT ALL for some APs that MIGHT clear two months later doesn't soumd right to me. I wonder how those who will be placed on AP in August will be cleared in just a month or less.. Makes me question the so-called AP more than ever.

Last year we had the same feelings. Then the final numbers came in and it became clear that KCC had met the targets flawlessly. Why don't we just wait until we know the facts (the facts which haven't even happened yet).

 

[SusieQQQ]

Last year we had the same feelings. Then the final numbers came in and it became clear that KCC had met the targets flawlessly. Why don't we just wait until we know the facts (the facts which haven't even happened yet).

Do any of these guys complain about the fact that there was no increase in SA between August and September last year? Or is it only a problem when it happens to Asia and they don't care about anyone else?

 

[NaraLB]

Do any of these guys complain about the fact that there was no increase in SA between August and September last year? Or is it only a problem when it happens to Asia and they don't care about anyone else?

Actually, I don't have much info about the mechanics/statistics of SA to begin with. The only thing I know is that there are some special circumstances in Venezuela and Cuba, that even Simon stopped predicting the progress of SA a while back. As you can probably know, the final cutoff of AS was very shocking.
Plus the fact that this whole thread of 25 pages is about (ASIA selectees with CNs >10,000), so yeah, maybe that's why..

 

[SusieQQQ]

Actually, I don't have much info about the mechanics/statistics of SA to begin with. The only thing I know is that there are some special circumstances in Venezuela and Cuba, that even Simon stopped predicting the progress of SA a while back. As you can probably know, the final cutoff of AS was very shocking.
Plus the fact that this whole thread of 25 pages is about (ASIA selectees with CNs >10,000), so yeah, maybe that's why..

The point I was making is that you guys are making it sound like Nepal and Iran are getting special treatment and now there is some nonsense about a racist immigration policy (um, hello, look at the countries excluded from DV because they are the source of the most immigrants to the US.....duh).
So my point was the fact that there is a similar situation in other regions and was last year too, should be telling you it's a standard policy applied throughout and not due to favor or disfavor of some countries or other nonsense. But I get it, you only hear what you want to hear.
Maybe if more people from your countries enter then you can finally all equally complain about high case numbers, then you'll have to find some other reason than Nepal and Iran for blame.... and no doubt someone will

 

[EURO2014]

In a way, it is rather simple: KCC executes the DV program as defined in great detail by US law, which is easy to access. Participating in the DV lottery means to implicitly agree to and to be bound by applicable DV rules and regulations, which are equally accessible and communicated to participants. Some of these rules may work in ones individual favor (i.e. country of birth, cross-charging rules etc.), some others may not, yet this really is not of much relevance in terms of the DoS program as it exists for quite some time. Of course laws and therefore specific DV rules may eventually be changed, yet as pointed out earlier, it may be more likely for the DV program to be abolished/significantly altered, rather than changed as far as the specific points discussed here are concerned. One may or may not like this, yet this is the way it is, with everyone interested in DV being in the very same position...