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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

moldova power said:
cn eu 47*** any chance for me?
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Between the conviction you have discussed and the high number I think your chances are very small. Honestly, if numbers start moving fast you should watch the VBs until July, but if you do get an interview you will be gambling your fee anyway because of the conviction. All you can do is wait, and decide whether to gamble to processing fee.
 
Sloner said:
I think you have a good chance.
Do not listen to Simon, it is poorly understood in the lottery.
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Yeah Sloner. You are so much more knowledgeable than the rest of us. I am just a poor humble selectee and I just don't understand lots of things like:-

How 30% more selectees are just going to evaporate so that even the highest case numbers are going to be getting visas.
Or why the case number progress according to the VB is pretty much the same (or slightly behind) the 2013 numbers.
Or how someone with a potentially disqualifying criminal conviction AND a high CN has a "good chance".
Or how anyone can take DV2012 as a representative example for other years.

Perhaps if I had a Russian education these things would make more sense to me. I'm just glad you are here to reassure us all.

By the way - you didn't do my quiz yet!
 
http://en.ria.ru/images/15933/62/159336243 .jpg
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Good chicken to the right:cool:
How 30% more selectees are just going to evaporate so that even the highest case numbers are going to be getting visas.
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With the new software to remove fraudulent claims. But not all. Applications intermediaries they left. Most do not know that for them handed mediator. Such requests are not allowed KCC to remove.
Or why the case number progress according to the VB is pretty much the same (or slightly behind) the 2013 numbers.
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KCC does not have time early in the year to handle all forms. So little interview earlier this year. But more in January, February, March. This year the situation is different, the number of interviews will be uniform.
 
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1) many holes 46000 win - 60000 case number.
2) 2012EU45188 in Ankara, sep 2012
3) words of some embassies that win preparing for an interview and did not worry.
 
hello everyone!!!
what is the probability of getting the second notification letter for case number 2014AS00007*** from Nepal
 
Sloner said:
Good chicken to the right:cool:

With the new software to remove fraudulent claims. But not all. Applications intermediaries they left. Most do not know that for them handed mediator. Such requests are not allowed KCC to remove.

KCC does not have time early in the year to handle all forms. So little interview earlier this year. But more in January, February, March. This year the situation is different, the number of interviews will be uniform.
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What a load of twaddle. Sloner, please detail what software they are using that AFTER selection will disqualify applicants, that they have not used in previous years? And why the success rate via intermediaries should be worse than before - in fact given that Bangladesh always had the highest rate of fraud via intermediaries (this is in a few DoS documents if you want proof) the success rate via intermediaries overall should be better, not worse, than before.

Also your claim that 30% of applicants will be denied for the "reasons" you state implies that they must have found around 30% of previously successful applicants got through fraudulently; but if they knew that, then these 30% of winners would have had their green cards stripped from them. Are we seriously meant to believe that nearly a third of previous winners have subsequently had their green cards revoked and deported and yet no-one has heard about this?
 
britsimon said:
Between the conviction you have discussed and the high number I think your chances are very small. Honestly, if numbers start moving fast you should watch the VBs until July, but if you do get an interview you will be gambling your fee anyway because of the conviction. All you can do is wait, and decide whether to gamble to processing fee.
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U say like u know on 100% percent, that people who have conviction with dr**s have refusing.
 
moldova power said:
U say like u know on 100% percent, that people who have conviction with dr**s have refusing.
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Somebody did actually post a link to that effect as I recall. And I think it was in response to one of your questions previously.

Edit: I see you've removed your previous posts in connection with this, I can't remember if you specified if the conviction was possession or trafficking. Trafficking WILL result in denial - it is defined as a crime of moral turpitude under section 212. Possession - you may apply for a waiver if the crime was "long ago" but as I recall yours was fairly recently. The CBP website states a drug possession charge will generally result in denial of entry under any visa or the VWP, except if a waiver is received as above. From what I understand the process to obtain a waiver is generally best done through an immigration attorney, and can take a long time. With a number as high as yours, you probably do not have that time...assuming your number does in fact become current.

___
Pursuant to INA § 212(a)(2)(A)(II), “any alien convicted of, or who admits having committed, or who admits committing acts which constitute the essential elements of a violation of (or a conspiracy or attempt to violate) any law or regulation of a State, the United States, or a foreign country relating to a controlled substance is inadmissible.
 
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moldova power said:
U say like u know on 100% percent, that people who have conviction with dr**s have refusing.
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No I don't know 100% - and I CLEARLY have not said that I know 100%, so don't get your knickers in a twist.

What I said was you can gamble if you like, but I think it is a gamble (i.e. something with an uncertain outcome). For the record you were previously told that the offense could be allowed if you were under 18 at the time and more than 5 years had passed. However, you said you were 24 at the time and received a 1 year sentence (suspended).

What I said before some weeks ago is that for your possession charge, that may cause a automatic denial OR it may cause AP - which you won't have time to resolve IF your number gets current. I think that still stands.

So, by all means watch the VB and if you get current, you are entitled to try the interview. That is your choice entirely - 100%.
 
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