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DV 2013 - Do Asian applicants have a tiny bit more chances than in DV 2012?

Veggie3

Registered Users (C)
Hi all,

This question may sound goofy, but I was just thinking about it: for DV 2013 Bangladesh was disqualified, and no other Asian countries were added. Does it mean that if Asia will get the same number of visa allotment as in DV 2012, that Asian applicants will have a slightly higher chance of winning? Again nothing dramatic, but still something...:p
 
More chances at the prize!

Hi

That's certainly an interesting question - and has me thinking over my lunch break at work right now! :)

I know there will still be the limit of 7% per region, and looking at it, I guess it would be as if New Zealand were taken out of the pool for Oceania, that would mean a few more for Australian and other Oceanic countries. Mind you, I think only around 1500 are given to us anyway so any number is not a huge difference here!

Will be interested to read other comments about this.

Q
 
Yes, you now have a much healthier chance of being selected than in other years. The same would be the case in Europe if citizens from high-entrant countries like Ukraine were disqualified (of if it was admitted into the EU for that matter)
 
I'm still thinking about this question lol

I guess if you could look up how many people from Bangladesh got DV visas in the last rounds you would have maybe an idea of how many more MIGHT be spread around. Mind you, the statistics of how many applied and how many failed might also matter.

Way too much math for me to think about!

Either way I agree with John, your chances would be slightly increased I'm guessing, but maybe not a huge amount in the scheme of things.



Q
 
I'm still thinking about this question lol

I guess if you could look up how many people from Bangladesh got DV visas in the last rounds you would have maybe an idea of how many more MIGHT be spread around. Mind you, the statistics of how many applied and how many failed might also matter.

Way too much math for me to think about!

Either way I agree with John, your chances would be slightly increased I'm guessing, but maybe not a huge amount in the scheme of things.



Q

i woul say a huge increase in chances. Bangladesh had more then 6000 of the 15,000 selectees in dv2012
 
i woul say a huge increase in chances. Bangladesh had more then
6000 of the 15,000 selectees in dv2012

@DV2012AFTAZ,bangladesh had 7.6million entries in DV2012 and only 2,373 were selected while Nepal was the only south asia country with high selectees with 3,258.So for the fact that bangladesh is ineligible in DV program and the visa is distributed on a regional basis doesn't mean that asian chances would be that higher cos bangladesh accounted for 2,373 visa for DV2012 would be spread down to other asia countries but not as higher chances as you guys think for visa to be spread accross asia region because asia still has more countries that bangladesh alocated visa would be spread down to.Like Nepal, nepal chances might increase more than any asia countries.Nigeria for instance and at times Ghana in africa.So region of asia visa would be high but not as high as you guys think.
 
Lower IMO!

B'desh was taken out, that means the DV eligible AS 'total regional population' got a 'huge' cut!
and that means, proportionally, AS will be allocated LOWER number of DV for 2013. (since Poland is added back, those EXTRA from AS will sure go to EU)

And that means other AS s will this time have more or less the same chance comparatively to DV12, or most likely in fact be lower!!

Best!
 
@NuvF - it's the other way around!

The main principle in the DV lottery is that each region sending FEWER immigrants to the U.S. in the previous 5 years would get MORE diversity visas.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/FSDiversityLPR2004.pdf

Thus the fact that Poland (which was ineligible until now because it had too many immigrants) joined the European region would LOWER (a little) Europeans' chances. On the other hand, the fact that Bangladesh, which now is disqualified for having too many immigrants to the U.S., is off the running, will increase (again, a little) the Asian share of the 50,000 DV visas.
 
The main principle in the DV lottery is that each region sending FEWER immigrants to the U.S. in the previous 5 years would get MORE diversity visas.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/FSDiversityLPR2004.pdf

Thus the fact that Poland (which was ineligible until now because it had too many immigrants) joined the European region would LOWER (a little) Europeans' chances. On the other hand, the fact that Bangladesh, which now is disqualified for having too many immigrants to the U.S., is off the running, will increase (again, a little) the Asian share of the 50,000 DV visas.

@verggie,when DV program started 1995,poland was eligible from DV1995 to DV2006 but later having high immigrants to the USA and was ineligible from DV2007 to DV2012.Now poland is eligible back in europe from DV2013.So i don't think poland would lower the european chances cos they were eligible before even though was later ineligible and the chances of european countries at then went a slightly high but all thesame the eligibility of poland back in europe would still be normal not declining european region visa among there sharing.
But for statistics and the fact, i would say that poland being eligible back in europe would decline european region visa slightly down is
1.poland is always having high selectees in DV program and if those nos of selectees would be spread down to other european countries would a bite high visa chances.
2.Previous years of poland DV lottery results shows that poland having these high results.
DV2013 poland now eligible back but still waiting for the results.
Poland not eligible in previous years
DV2007,N/A
DV2008,N/A
DV2009,N/A
DV2010,N/A
DV2011,N/A
DV2012,N/A

DV2006,3416 selectees
DV2005,6,211 selectees
DV2004,5467 selectees
DV2003,3855 selectees
DV2002,4707 selectees
So if all these nos of selectees/visas would be taken from other european countries now that poland is eligible back then one would say that the european region would be slightly decline with some of these nos of visas allocated to poland in previous years taken off european countries by then you have a slightly visa decline in european region.For africa region,what do you guys have to say about newly eligible south sudan?
 
It's marginal, yet it still exists

So for DV 2013 the European region just "earned" Poland, a country that had high rates of immigration, while Asia "lost" Bangladesh, a country that has a high rate of immigration (and was responsible to HALF of all the entries in DV 2012, many of which were fraudulent). Thus Asia will have a somewhat higher number of visas (nothing dramatic, unfortunately!):(
 
B'desh was taken out, that means the DV eligible AS 'total regional population' got a 'huge' cut!
and that means, proportionally, AS will be allocated LOWER number of DV for 2013. (since Poland is added back, those EXTRA from AS will sure go to EU)

And that means other AS s will this time have more or less the same chance comparatively to DV12, or most likely in fact be lower!!

Best!

Look at it historically. Around 15,000 selectees from Asia, Bangladesh has gone from 6,000 selectees to 2500 depending on the year

From issued DV visas Bangladesh has used 34% of Asia quota on an average

This means there is sure a greater allocation to other Asian countries and for those selected a much much more higher chance of getting the actual Visa!
 
Chk again!

.......Thus Asia will have a somewhat higher number of visas


.........This means there is sure a greater allocation to other Asian countries


a) It seems still you have not read the 'allocation' correct! (http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87837.pdf)

b) Number allocated to a given REGIONAL 'pot' is not static every yr, it changes proportional to the 'eligible' total population of the REGION.

c) No initial allocation country wise. Winners from each country depend on the statistical probability of being drawn from the regional 'pot'. Higher the total number registered (valid eDV apps.) from a given country, higher the prob. a winner is from that country, from any given 'pot'.

Hope this helps.

Best!
 
I'll try again, yet slower this time

HTML:
Number allocated to a given REGIONAL 'pot' is not static every yr, it changes proportional to the 'eligible' total population of the REGION

True, the number allocated to a given region isn't static, but it changes NOT with proportion to the eligible total population of a region, but to how many immigrants that region has sent to the U.S. over the last 5 years.

http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/FSDiversityLPR2004.pdf

Hence:

Asia "lost" Bangladesh (high-immigration country), so as a region it sends LESS "eligible" immigrants to the U.S. = more DV visas

Europe "earned" Poland (high-immigration country), so as a region it sends MORE "eligible" immigrants to the U.S. = less DV visas.

Those changes are minute (even negligible), yet even that's a tiny ray of hope...:D
 
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/FSDiversityLPR2004.pdf

Hence:

Asia "lost" Bangladesh (high-immigration country), so as a region it sends LESS "eligible" immigrants to the U.S. = more DV visas

Europe "earned" Poland (high-immigration country), so as a region it sends MORE "eligible" immigrants to the U.S. = less DV visas.

Those changes are minute (even negligible), yet even that's a tiny ray of hope...:D

That's not my understanding of how the region allocation works, based on the publications linked.

Asia no longer has Bangladesh as a consequence of Bangladeshi immigrants exceeding 50,000 Legal Permanent Residents in the past 5 years in the United States, and thus being classed as a High Admission state. While this means the Asia Region will not have to compete with Bangladeshi born applicants any more, it will also mean it's overall pool of Diversity Visas will be reduced proportionality, as Bangladesh will enter into the Asia High Admission Country list along the likes of India, Philippines, Pakistan, China (mainland), South Korea and Vietnam pushing up the amount of immigrants gaining residency from Asia as a region in the United States as a whole, and further reducing the need to pool from this region for the purposes of diversification proportionality. The result being fewer overall visas spread over fewer eligible countries, just like North/South America.

Asia is already classed as a High Admission Region, Bangladesh's removal from Diversity status just made it even more so. This is why Asia and North/South America always has the fewest Diversity Immigrants visas, because Asia and North/South America consistently send the most people to America, and thus are not as required for the purposes of diversification.

Poland became eligible again, which means Europeans will have to compete with Polish born applicants, but also will see a proportionate increase in their overall Diversity Pool of Visas. This is because Polish applicants are once again statistically immigrating in low enough numbers to warrant Poland becoming an additional source of potential immigrants from the European Region to pool from, for the purpose of diversifying the United States.

This is why African/Oceanic Regions has the highest overall pool in proportion to their population; they are consistently under-represented in the United States. As you will note; no Oceanic or African country is ineligible in their respective regions. Europe only has the United Kingdom (excluding N. Ireland) as an ineligible High Admission state since Poland is now eligible again.

If you look at Page 2, the Fig. 2 bar graph in the document you linked, you will see this graphically illustrated.

It remains yet to be seen, but I imagine the Asia Region will benefit from the exclusion of Bangladesh as regards to their chance of a visa; simply because Bangladesh would flood the E-DV website with applicants, even if they were capped at 7% for overall issued visas.
 
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