Dollar slide accelerates

Jackolantern said:
But if the dollar slides, India and China will start demanding more USD for their goods and services (not on existing contracts but on new ones), so in the long run the US will hurt.
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yes thats true....but thats phase two....and before hiking the price they will try to cut their cost and absorb the currency difference...

and once they start hiking the cost......as tushar said....they are no longer the cheapest providers.....

but definitely china is at an advantage....because of manufacturing......since they are already providing goods at rock bottom price.....and they can easily hike the price since usa cannot find any place cheaper than that...

yuan is almost freewheeling right now.....but i am sure its a controlled movement......

i am sure indian FED (RBI) will not let the dollar go below rs.40 (i have not see the stats but india needs a butt load of dollars for buying petroleum itself.....hence they wont mind keeping some reserve no matter where dollar stand wrt to other currencies)
 
already india has net trade deficit; hence, it needs to keep its currency as much linked to US $ as it can.
China has net trade surplus of billions of US $; hence, pressure on it to delink its currency.
techy2468 said:
yes thats true....but thats phase two....and before hiking the price they will try to cut their cost and absorb the currency difference...

and once they start hiking the cost......as tushar said....they are no longer the cheapest providers.....

but definitely china is at an advantage....because of manufacturing......since they are already providing goods at rock bottom price.....and they can easily hike the price since usa cannot find any place cheaper than that...

yuan is almost freewheeling right now.....but i am sure its a controlled movement......

i am sure indian FED (RBI) will not let the dollar go below rs.40 (i have not see the stats but india needs a butt load of dollars for buying petroleum itself.....hence they wont mind keeping some reserve no matter where dollar stand wrt to other currencies)
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ordinaria said:
Somehow this thread doesn't seem appropriate for this board.
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I am sorry...but being stuck in retrogression we are more affected by the dollar slide since we may have to convert our savings to our home country's currency....if we have to go back
 
Techy no offense!

I would like to make a remark, I thought you loved to be in US or in Australia or in Canada. Somewhere away from India. You blasted India left and right.

So why do you want to convert to Rupee, why not to some other country's currency?

Another candid suggestion reduce the number of periods/dots in your response that way your thoughts will not drift left and right.

:)


techy2468 said:
I am sorry...but being stuck in retrogression we are more affected by the dollar slide since we may have to convert our savings to our home country's currency....if we have to go back
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gc_retrogress said:
Techy no offense!

I would like to make a remark, I thought you loved to be in US or in Australia or in Canada. Somewhere away from India. You blasted India left and right.

So why do you want to convert to Rupee, why not to some other country's currency?

Another candid suggestion reduce the number of periods/dots in your response that way your thoughts will not drift left and right.

:)
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I did not blast india.
i was just trying to present the ground reality that india is still far from being a developed country...

practically speaking it will make more sense if i go back to india if i do not get a GC.

since i do not have any energy left to establish in Australia (even though i have the PR),
and my family is in India,
(unless i find loopholes in australia immigration to get most of my family members over there....it think its possible for around $25k per person)


and as i have said in the beginning of this thread....its was easy for me to transfer money to india.....since my parents are there....and i have not found a way to buy foreign government bonds yet. (i am interested in only gov bonds...not mutual funds.)

and i have only converted 50% of my savings to rupee......since my assumption is that the dollar is not going to fall too badly against rupee (and in case i get my GC........dollar is more preferable than a foreign currency)


sorry i am unable to reduce the dots(periods) in my typing...............................its a quick way to put pause in my thought and continue typing quickly..(i write a lot as you may know by now :)
 
unitednations said:
techy,

I usually don't engage in these topics:

1) It is mainly confined to Indian economy; which I don't have much interest in.

2) Since I left Canada; US currency has lost close to 20% against the Canadian dollar. (there goes the moving plan to go back; I already got screwed on this).

3) It is a highly technical topic. I used to sit and listen to portfolio managers discuss the economy, interest rate movements, consumer spending, etc. and realized they have just as little clue as all of us do. (if you want to hear people say a lot but at the same time say nothing then all you got to do is listen to them).

4) Many people on these boards aren't interested in the topic. Some of the veterans still don't understand how retrogression works; visa allocation, etc., which in my mind are simple topics; I can't even fathom how they would understand such a technical topic.

5) I've been extremely busy with h-1b's and tax returns.
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UN i fully agree with you that no one can say for certain where we are headed when it comes to economy or the markets.....(i am surprised we still do not have indicators tracking data collection system and analysing system for the health of the economy)

but isnt it possible to make a educated guess.....so that we can atleast prepare a bit (hedge against extremities)??
 
techy2468,
How much do you want to hedge. You r in alabama, the only risk is flooding...:p :p
You have hedged India with US and then with Australian PR....:p
What r u trying to do in life? Please figure that out and do that without any hedges please....
Pls stick to immigration and if you don't have much to share on that, please don't start unnecessary hedging discussions....

techy2468 said:
UN i fully agree with you that no one can say for certain where we are headed when it comes to economy or the markets.....(i am surprised we still do not have indicators tracking data collection system and analysing system for the health of the economy)

but isnt it possible to make a educated guess.....so that we can atleast prepare a bit (hedge against extremities)??
Click to expand...
 
there are lot of indicators. You can check any finance periodical to educate yourself.

techy2468 said:
UN i fully agree with you that no one can say for certain where we are headed when it comes to economy or the markets.....(i am surprised we still do not have indicators tracking data collection system and analysing system for the health of the economy)

but isnt it possible to make a educated guess.....so that we can atleast prepare a bit (hedge against extremities)??
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tusharvk said:
there are lot of indicators. You can check any finance periodical to educate yourself.
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but as you know....those indicators are not enough.....

nobody had a clue about stock market crash after 2000.

and nobody knows for sure right now about where the economy or stock markets are headed....

--------------------------------
NYC8300..i will ignore your comment..
 
yes. There was atleast one who predicted crash in 2000 and there are market-timers who study exactly such indicators to time stock market.
Predicting direction of economy is much simpler.



techy2468 said:
but as you know....those indicators are not enough.....

nobody had a clue about stock market crash after 2000.

and nobody knows for sure right now about where the economy or stock markets are headed....

--------------------------------
NYC8300..i will ignore your comment..
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nyc8300 said:
techy2468,
How much do you want to hedge. You r in alabama, the only risk is flooding...:p :p
You have hedged India with US and then with Australian PR....:p
What r u trying to do in life? Please figure that out and do that without any hedges please....
Pls stick to immigration and if you don't have much to share on that, please don't start unnecessary hedging discussions....
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That's a really funny one. It's a refreshing after so many self-proclaimed experts on so many different topics :)
 
Just a quick question: I am trying to send money to India using SBI, NY.

My father whom i want to send money to, do not have an SBI NRI account (jointly with me or etc). Does the money sent from here (from US i.e from me) to India (my father) will be taxed in India as well ?
I have already paid taxes here.
 
rucshaca said:
Just a quick question: I am trying to send money to India using SBI, NY.

My father whom i want to send money to, do not have an SBI NRI account (jointly with me or etc). Does the money sent from here (from US i.e from me) to India (my father) will be taxed in India as well ?
I have already paid taxes here.
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I have never used sbi to send money to India..
In past I have used --
www.xoom.com
www.icicibank.com
www.timesofmoney.com

The problem with icici and timesOfmoney is that they will not tell you the actual exchange rate that will be applied.

I think if you use SBI ... they will give you a draft in favor of your father .. and then U can mail him the draft.

The above services I mentioned can do a direct deposit to your fathers account.
For ICICI bank and timesofmoney first you need to register and then they will verify your bank account over here .. after that you can do the money transfer.

As per Indian income tax rules, since money sent from the US to India is already taxed, you will not have to pay any income tax in India. If money is sent to close relatives, the recipient will not have to pay gift tax. The bottom-line is that remittances from abroad to close relatives in India for personal uses will not attract taxation (but it might invite scrutiny in which case the recipient may have to prove that the remittance was made from abroad) in any form.
 
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Wait for current presidnet ot go out and economy will improve

The largest drag on current us economy is its presidnet, Yeda Bush. The war he started is sucking out trillions from usa economy, the money that could be used for constructive projects is being used for distruction in Iraq. Other than Halliberton and its agents like Cheney and Wolfowits no ne else is beniffiting from it.
Just wait for 2 years and this monkey (Bush) will go away aand USA economy will automatically improve, the dollar will gain strenghth.
There are 2 kinds of Fools in the world, the first type where the prson knows he is fool and keeps shut, the world does not have problem with such fool. The oher type of fool does not know he is fool and does the things that we are seeing in Iraq. the worls do have problems with such a fool.
Just look at Bush's nominies for various departments , all of them are "B" grade picks. e.g Chertoff for homland security. Bernake for Federal reserve.
 
Ok i will bite.
just like we have different opinions on immigration in this small board, we have millions and millions of investor opinions about stock market and economy in general. that is why you see markets are what they are, chaotic.
there are a lot of people who try to find indicators using software,mathematics...etc, but nothing prepares you for a crash. because there is no such software to predict what other person is going to do. its the other person and other person's other person...cause crash.
sensible investors always book profits and stick to their schedule and make money. frankly money making needs balls, its not for faint of heart or restless folks who let their emotions come infront of economic sense.
as far as the factual errors on this discussion, let us see

first of all indian currency is not pegged. i am not sure what people here mean by peg. if it means the value of currency is constant to a another currency or a basket of currencies. chinese yuan or renminbi is pegged to a basket of currencies at ius$=8.11 renminbi. you see politicians from US always crying about this...
India on the other hand has a free float on current acount and partial float on capital account. if rupee were pegged we would not be having this discussion would we? it would mean that no matter what the demand and supply of dollars we will maintain the same exchange rate which is not the case.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/020603.asp

people worried about India should read Indian business news to understand what is going on. put simply Inflation is hurting the common man threatening to deprive him of his langot and elections are around the corner in UP, congress does not want to lose its shirt because of the Inflation issue.
the best way to reduce prices is to tighten the money supply one of the ways to do is let the rupee appreciate which would make crude oil cheaper in India and hence make a big dent on inflation and also RBi's intervention in the forex market increases money supply and might stoke inflation.
so RBI, under govt's directive is absent in forex market, strong portfolio inflows have put a lot of demand on rupee and so the value of rupee has shot up.
it will come down once the political climate changes or atleast if the congress thinks inflation has come down. already its coming down. so hang on to your dollars for few more months and rupee will go back to 43-44 levels. i don't see rupee going to 48-49 levels anytime soon.
i think the govt wants to maintain 43-44 levels for sustained growth. if the rupee values appreciates/depreciates even more every one gets screwed. india is much more than tcs,wipro and infosys....its not just exports there is another thing called imports too.

last but not least...for folks who come here and find this thread. DO NOT BASE YOUR INVESTMENT DECISIONS ON THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED HERE. YOU WILL SOON BE ROAMING NAKED ON THE STREET.
i don't even want to start listing the errors here. there are a lot of pseudo economics...not real economics. just jargon thrown around.
 
michael_holding nice post....

when i meant pegged wrt india currency.......i was referring to indian government intervention in not letting rupee appreciate too much because that will make indian exports expensive........and if you look at the chart of USD/yuan its no different than usd/rupee for the past one year.....


http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=CNY&submit=Convert

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=INR&submit=Convert


and if indian government is not intervening can you please explain why rupee did not go up against dollar with the same rate as euro or Aussie Dollar

i am not saying i know the details about the forex....but from a layman's perspective it does appear that china and india does not want their currency to appreciate too much against usd.

i do agree that right now indian gov may be letting rupee appreciate to make imports cheaper.....

if you can shed some more light on how the forex market is going to behave it will be helpful...
 
I wanted to start investing in the stock ... so I started watching Jim Cramer's - Mad Money. In one of the shows he was asked .. why does stock go up and down.

He said -- all the cacluations and software modeling we do help .... but the ultimate is decided by a few guys. These few guys actually make a decision what should go up and what should not ... and most often the market goes as they wish.

what do you guys think about the Jim Cramer's remark?
 
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for one or two stocks it may be like that.
But the whole stock market direction (take the example of wilshire index) can be predicted. Similarly you can predict the direction of real estate and also that of economy.
With indexes, lot of the noise gets averaged out.
nTan said:
I wanted to start investing in the stock ... so I started watching Jim Cramer's - Mad Money. In one of the shows he was asked .. why does stock go up and down.

He said -- all the cacluations and software modeling we do help .... but the ultimate is decided by a few guys. These few guys actually make a decision what should go up and what should not ... and most often the market goes as they wish.

what do you guys think about the Jim Cramer's remark?
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tusharvk said:
for one or two stocks it may be like that.
But the whole stock market direction (take the example of wilshire index) can be predicted. Similarly you can predict the direction of real estate and also that of economy.
With indexes, lot of the noise gets averaged out.
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i am sorry.....but dont you think if it can be predicted......we can be millionaires (if we were the only ones to be able to predict).....please share the formula which will help me predict the stock market.

I repeat.....no one can say for sure about any market.........too many variables involved in cyclic dependency.....and of course we do not have a system in place to monitor most of them.....we are able to only monitor few and thats how the market knows about the health of the economy...
 
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